mitchnick Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Forget the +NAO #SCORE Be nice to see the epo follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Satellites do a very good job of filling in for upper air balloons in areas where they are not available. Reference dtk and the other mets that have discussed this. In all likelyhood it's probably more a factor of it 1) being far out in time and 2) Our big storm for this weekend hasn't even occurred yet. Lol Sorry. I was kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Forget the +NAO #SCORE where's this from/based off of? euro ens is positive NAO throughout after storm tho waning a bit late perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 where's this from/based off of? euro ens is positive NAO throughout after storm tho waning a bit late perhaps. esrl http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Couple of points - - Per GFS, 2m temps Monday morning single digits to negatives in some of the exurbs (of note, 2m temps would be just 1m above the snowpack in some areas!) - Potential threat the following Thurs; this has gone back and forth from onshore rain to offshore snow depending on the speed of the LP and cold front. Wouldn't take much to synch these up more favorably, but models have backed away from anything significant for our region. GFS deepens the low off SC, but both GFS and Euro have the LP dig too much to make it far up the coast. - All models showing at least a few days of warmth by the following week, near 60 by Tuesday Feb 2nd - a long way off, but heights seem to support. I'd imagine there's space for a reload by the second week of Feb, but too far off to tell, and we know what the weeklies are saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Very active pattern in the long range 12Z GFS run. Should have plenty to track over the next couple of weeks after this blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Sort of want to hang my head for noting this, but JB calling for SSW leading to reboot of cold Feb 10-rest of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Sort of want to hang my head for noting this, but JB calling for SSW leading to reboot of cold Feb 10-rest of Feb. gfs is trying to snow again next week...its like its 5th attempt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 gfs is trying to snow again next week...its like its 5th attemptTough ones are the best ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Tough ones are the best ones Feb 10 redux coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Any new insight wrt the Jan 28 event after the latest GFS? Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Sort of want to hang my head for noting this, but JB calling for SSW leading to reboot of cold Feb 10-rest of Feb. The Jan 21st 00Z Euro looks as if it may agree with him. At day 10 it looks as if the PV is on the verge of a split. Being the Euro I can't post though. Have to wonder though if in the way it is configured if a split would even be beneficial to us here on the east coast. I am thinking not but don't know nearly enough to be sure. Maybe someone with more knowledge could chime in? Edit: This is from looking at 50mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'll take me some of what the GFS is showing at the end of its 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'll take me some of what the GFS is showing at the end of its 12Z run. GEFS starting to look better and better after the western trough moves out. I think it might be game on again not too far into Feb. Blocking is coming back. I'm pretty sure now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Pattern rollovers would suggest blocking returns by feb 10-15 even without the overhyped SSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Pattern rollovers would suggest blocking returns by feb 10-15 even without the overhyped SSW.sometimes it just snows because it's winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 this storm seems to have 9 lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GFS 6z loses it again. GGEM brings it back... Model ping-pong. Ensembles look mixed too. GGEM: 00z GEFS (via Twitter/Maue): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 HA. wouldnt this be something... para gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 HA. wouldnt this be something... para gfs Yes...for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 euro day 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 18z has a nice setup for something after 02/1/2016. I'm only out to 234 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 GGEM has it on the 12Z run great hit too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 GGEM has it on the 12Z run great hit too Euro looked kinda close too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 GGEM has it on the 12Z run great hit too Another 30mm snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Oh, and we don't have a 132 map... but 12z UKIE would look to be a major hit as well. 120 999 by CHS and 144 980 by BOS... but 850s only go out to 72 so I can't tell if its a snowstorm or not ETA: FWIW, 18z GFS OP says no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Oh, and we don't have a 132 map... but 12z UKIE would look to be a major hit as well. 120 999 by CHS and 144 980 by BOS... but 850s only go out to 72 so I can't tell if its a snowstorm or not ETA: FWIW, 18z GFS OP says no I think 18z NAM is a little closer than the GFS NAM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160123+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model GFS http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160123+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Hmmmm EPS.... hmmmmmm Day 5.5 and Day 6 SLP locations look... interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Hmmmm EPS.... hmmmmmm Day 5.5 and Day 6 SLP locations look... interesting I was going to ask about those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Hmmmm EPS.... hmmmmmm Day 5.5 and Day 6 SLP locations look... interesting 12Z GEFS at 132 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2016012312&fh=132&xpos=0&ypos=182 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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