Heisy Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I woke up and looked @ the 6z NAM and got really excited, but then the 12z models roleld in lol...life support time unless the foreign models give us something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Hm, GGEM out to 60 hrs hanging a lot more energy back in the S....let's see if it can do something,.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Hm, GGEM out to 60 hrs hanging a lot more energy back in the S....let's see if it can do something,.. Nope... on to the UKIE/EURO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Hmmmm..... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1059 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016 VALID 12Z THU JAN 28 2016 - 12Z MON FEB 01 2016 ..GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT AND WEATHER THREATS ..THE E-CENTRAL US OF THE FULL ENVELOPE OF RECENT MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...THE 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES OFFER THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND NRN/SRN STREAM SEPARATE FLOW WITH TROUGHING ALOFT OVER ERN NORTH AMERICA THU/FRI. THE WPC PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM THIS SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PROVIDING A REASONABLE LOW POSITION NEAR THE CENTROID OF MORE VARIED ECMWF/UKMET DETERMINISTIC TIMINGS. THIS SEEMS TO FIT THE OVERALL PATTERN AND HAS SUPPORT FROM UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND AT LEAST THE TRENDS FROM RECENT GFS/GFSP/GEFS RUNS. THIS PATTERN ALLOWS DEEPENING COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT/TRACK UP THE EAST COAST. LOW FORMATION IS NOT ANYWHERE ON THE ORDER OF THE RECENT HISTORIC STORM AND WILL BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THIS COULD PROVIDE A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW ON A LESS THAN CERTAIN AXIS ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE ASSOCIATED WRAPPED PCPN SHIELD THU FROM THE INTERIOR SERN US NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC IN MODESTLY COOLED AIR TO ESPECIALLY SERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL ALSO THREATEN MARINE INTERESTS WHILE FL AND VICINITY HAVE A POTENTIAL THREAT FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SEVERE WEATHER THU AS PER SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Hmmmm..... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1059 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016 Interesting....see what 12z Euro has up its sleeve. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Anyone have the UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 GEFS is unanimous for an offshore track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 GEFS is unanimous for an offshore track gefsoffshore.JPG We need the it's not happening gif for this one. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 GGEM has a nice setup day 10, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 GGEM has a nice setup day 10, lolWow, you can say that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 GGEM has a nice setup day 10, lol Decent H moving in concert with the SLP... it is a nice looking setup Wow, you can say that again. I just did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Euro out to 30 for Thurs/Fri hanging by a thread threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I think we're going to need to start looking to the 2nd week of Feb...just a hunch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Just misses I think 96 hrs rh http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Just misses I think 96 hrs rh http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Out to 72 on wxbell so we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Ne may get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Out to 72 on wxbell so we shall see East. You could see it coming early. H5 keeps going the wrong direction. No biggie. It's a low probability setup either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 it misses by a pretty wide margin, looks like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Ne may get it it barely scrapes the outer edge of cape cod with a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Everything is moving in the wrong direction, however its still close enough to at least keep one eye on it. Its not as far out as that little coating we got a week ago was at this point. A similar west trend as that and we could see something but its a long shot right now. Things seem too progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Got a text from a non-snow-loving friend this morning saying "looks like we're getting more snow on Thursday." I shot that idea down and said that everyone would freak out at the mere mention of snow now. I'd love feet more of snow, but I'm somewhat glad to see that I'm being proven right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 EURO trended better in the LR....@ 144 hours there is a shortwave across Central US, and a deeper wave in the Southwest. IF that C Wave trended stronger and reinforced the cold air we'd have a shot @ something Day 9-10. As for next week's event, need a hail mary @ this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 EURO trended better in the LR....@ 144 hours there is a shortwave across Central US, and a deeper wave in the Southwest. IF that C Wave trended stronger and reinforced the cold air we'd have a shot @ something Day 9-10. As for next week's event, need a hail mary @ this point 9 to 10 days would be next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 EURO trended better in the LR....@ 144 hours there is a shortwave across Central US, and a deeper wave in the Southwest. IF that C Wave trended stronger and reinforced the cold air we'd have a shot @ something Day 9-10. As for next week's event, need a hail mary @ this point And here we go again. For the record that's the same setup ggem has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 And here we go again. For the record that's the same setup ggem has. ty to all for excellent discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 The 12Z Euro ensembles don't like the prospects for the Thur-Fri event. Shifts the offshore low to the east maybe another 100-150 miles. Though most members show no love for the DC-Balt corridor it does have 4 with 2-6 inch totals with a fifth that actually drops 6 to 12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 The 12Z Euro ensembles don't like the prospects for the Thur-Fri event. Shifts the offshore low to the east maybe another 100-150 miles. Though most members show no love for the DC-Balt corridor it does have 4 with 2-6 inch totals with a fifth that actually drops 6 to 12 inches. Yeah, I just took a quick run through and that about sums it up. Still have to watch it. A system like this can come back and we're still over 72 hours out however it look a blot better 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 To be honest I have felt this was probably a lost cause for the last few days but with seeing the 00Z GFS para and ensembles looking somewhat better @500 and the 06Z following suit it bolstered my hopes. But the 12Z suite of runs has pretty much driven a stake through those slim hopes. Think those down on the coast in VA and NC still have a decent shot but then they will probably be dealing with some serious temp issues. So probably cold rain for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 The 00Z suite of runs inside of 10 days are pretty dismal and suggest some rough sledding if you like snow. The thur-fri event is all but buried at this point and it looks as if the odds strongly favor next week's tue-wed event is going to visit the lakes. About the only positive I could find is that there are some hints from the models and their ensembles that next weeks great lakes low will leave some energy behind. Now what it does, if energy is actually left behind, would be anyone's guess (The GEM op throws out a Miller B solution). Day 10 onwards the prospects, though not optimum, look more favorable with the GFS, GEM and Euro ensembles showing a trough in the east with ridging out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 The 00Z suite of runs inside of 10 days are pretty dismal and suggest some rough sledding if you like snow. The thur-fri event is all but buried at this point and it looks as if the odds strongly favor next week's tue-wed event is going to visit the lakes. About the only positive I could find is that there are some hints from the models and their ensembles that next weeks great lakes low will leave some energy behind. Now what it does, if energy is actually left behind, would be anyone's guess (The GEM op throws out a Miller B solution). Day 10 onwards the prospects, though not optimum, look more favorable with the GFS, GEM and Euro ensembles showing a trough in the east with ridging out west. Looks like February thaw...think with the cutter we should expect some flooding with 1-2" of rain falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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