AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 And you've made 3 too many posts for analyzing the 84 hour NAM... Let's totally ignore a piece of guidance, good idea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 scroll down to video--way to cool, takes a jeep rubicone https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Let's totally ignore a piece of guidance, good idea! Wonder how many meteorologists wished they had paid more attention to the NAM on the last storm considering that it could be strongly argued that it outperformed the GFS and especially the Euro even at the limit of it's range. Of course the haters are going to throw out the old analogy, blind squirrel and nut, and continue to ignore it but the fact is the NAM does fairly well in certain setups especially within the 24 to 36 hour threshold. Now I am not saying the NAM is the greatest model out there, far from it actually, but if you know its bias' and its strengths and adjust for them accordingly it can be a useful tool in confirming or throwing up a red flag on other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 The 00z para GFS had a slightly better look @ 500mb and that was reflected on the surface with a low skirting west of the 00z op's guidance. That being said the 06Z GFS has come in showing an adjustment to the west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Wonder how many meteorologists wished they had paid more attention to the NAM on the last storm considering that it could be strongly argued that it outperformed the GFS and especially the Euro even at the limit of it's range. Of course the haters are going to throw out the old analogy, blind squirrel and nut, and continue to ignore it but the fact is the NAM does fairly well in certain setups especially within the 24 to 36 hour threshold. Now I am not saying the NAM is the greatest model out there, far from it actually, but if you know its bias' and its strengths and adjust for them accordingly it can be a useful tool in confirming or throwing up a red flag on other guidance. well said!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 The 06Z has a much better look at 500. Trough axis and progression has improved and now we are seeing more interaction between the southern energy and the northern energy diving south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 The 06Z has a much better look at 500. Trough axis and progression has improved and now we are seeing more interaction between the southern energy and the northern energy diving south. for what hour?? approx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 for what hour?? approx Just look at the progression and interaction of the trough and the energy at 500mb from 78 hr through 102. Much better looked compared to the to the 00Z. I haven't really looked into the temps, which are probably marginal at best, but if I were in eastern NC and VA as well as the southern Md shorelines I might be getting a little exited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 The 06Z has a much better look at 500. Trough axis and progression has improved and now we are seeing more interaction between the southern energy and the northern energy diving south. That low to the NW is key. Looks like it might be far enough east to not completely wreck the midlevels, but how it interacts with the coastal low is going to determine how close it can track. My wag is it ends up being close enough for a minor event for someone, probably coastal areas, but temps will be marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GirlForAllSeasons Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 One of the things I am really interested here weather wise are temps and refreeze. There are countless roads throughout the state that simply havent been touched.If we get a little rain on Tuesday and then it goes down in the teens on Wednesday morning... that is the dagger... kids may not go back to school for two weeks. I am serious... I don't see how they can move the snow after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 850s and 2mag look fine on the Euro for the Thursday night event despite the lack of HP, perhaps we can get a little 95-east special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 That low to the NW is key. Looks like it might be far enough east to not completely wreck the midlevels, but how it interacts with the coastal low is going to determine how close it can track. My wag is it ends up being close enough for a minor event for someone, probably coastal areas, but temps will be marginal. Agreed, but I do wonder with the fact it is dropping down into the lakes from Canada (vs. pulling up from the south to our west) and its positioning during any possible storm if it may actually be beneficial to the temp profile. Just a cursory look but it doesn't look like its bringing in much of a SW fetch so the damage to the mid-levels beforehand should be minimal and the cold it's dragging behind could possibly be in quick enough for any potential storm. Of course don't think that would be of any help down in NC and VA where I think their hope would lie in this bombing out to a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 850s and 2mag look fine on the Euro for the Thursday night event despite the lack of HP, perhaps we can get a little 95-east special. Also looks like once again the 6z NAM also keeps me interested 78-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Also looks like once again the 6z NAM also keeps me interested 78-84.Navgem, fwiw, is very wet but a touch too warm. Compromise between it and gfs would work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Agreed, but I do wonder with the fact it is dropping down into the lakes from Canada (vs. pulling up from the south to our west) and its positioning during any possible storm if it may actually be beneficial to the temp profile. Just a cursory look but it doesn't look like its bringing in much of a SW fetch so the damage to the mid-levels beforehand should be minimal and the cold it's dragging behind could possibly be in quick enough for any potential storm. Of course don't think that would be of any help down in NC and VA where I think their hope would lie in this bombing out to a point. actually, there is no warmup on that low from canada, as cold air still well situated down to iowa due east.not the typical warm front with the low, interesting observ on your part, other point, is the moisture assoc with low off coast, well inland, does that pull NE away from land, as low seems to be doing, or is 2nd low forming?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 This looks like a thread the needle storm possibility but after the weekend, who's to say we can't do it. Probably time for the 12z runs to continue with the west trend since we're within four days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 actually, there is no warmup on that low from canada, as cold air still well situated down to iowa due east.not the typical warm front with the low, interesting observ on your part, other point, is the moisture assoc with low off coast, well inland, does that pull NE away from land, as low seems to be doing, or is 2nd low forming?? Just glanced over some of the temp profiles and it actually does have some minimal erosion of the cold air from the GL low at 925mb to where it makes temps marginal. Keep in mind that is with the low somewhat off the coast. If we were to see the low tucked in more I think that would hinder somewhat the advancement of warmer air at 925, at least for our neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Just glanced over some of the temp profiles and it actually does have some minimal erosion of the cold air from the GL low at 925mb to where it makes temps marginal. Keep in mind that is with the low somewhat off the coast. If we were to see the low tucked in more I think that would hinder somewhat the advancement of warmer air at 925, at least for our neck of the woods. isnt that moisture inland from ocean low awful far separate from related low off coast, doesnt make a lot of sense?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 isnt that moisture inland from ocean low awful far separate from related low off coast, doesnt make a lot of sense?? On the 06Z GFS? The surface reflection looks reasonable to me. Or are you talking something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 And once again the 06z GFS para comes in slightly west of the op. Let's see if we see a concurrent shift west again with the op at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I am going to guess 00z UKIE would have been a hit? Taking a peek at QPF at hr 72 and SLP at 96... hmmm... too bad no 84 panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 To fill in for Bob Chill Looks like about little over 1/3 of the 00z EPS paint 2"+ of snow for DCA... I think I counted 20 members... there are a few who have 4"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 FWIW, which isn't much, 06z NAVGEM was a major hit hrs 78 and 84... but 850 0 line is in NW VA/W MD... but 32 degree line stays around I-95... so ice storm for favored areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 FWIW, which isn't much, 06z NAVGEM was a major hit hrs 78 and 84... but 850 0 line is in NW VA... but 32 degree line stays around I-95 Yuck that would mean Freezing Rain. ETA: Can the NAVGEM corollary still be used meaning that guidance that is east of it will trend west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Yuck that would mean Freezing Rain. ETA: Can the NAVGEM corollary still be used meaning that guidance that is east of it will trend west. I think you mean if the NAVGEM shows a major hit on its guidance, doesn't it usually signal/mean that the other guidance will be coming westward? Or is that just baloney? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 GFS isn't having it. Looking like a longshot at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Just looked at overnight and am guidance. Close to being on life support with the next chance. Everything is too far east now. H5 look has deteriorated over the last 24 hours or so. We'll know for sure if the 0z suite is locked into an eastern solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 GFS & NAM trended more progressive @ 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 The period around the Feb 83 storm has been popping up on CPC analogs the last couple days. Not at the top of the list or anything but I like seeing it show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 12Z GFS is a whiff, but those eps close calls look rather interesting from the last couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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