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January Med/Long Range Discussion Part 4


WinterWxLuvr

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Bastardi liking the Thursday/Friday weekend thing fwiw:

"Euro not Strong enough IMO as phasing likely on east Coast"

Just a quick note here. The European I think is on to the threat on the east coast Thur into Friday but its operational............is likely to CORRECT WEST as the model gets more focused on the phasing. If we remember the past 2 events from 5 days out, the one last weekend, and the blizzard, the model corrected west. So its ensembles with numerous members to the northwest ( remember the storm yesterday stalled just southeast of Wallops before translating out, passing over ECG.. the model certainly caught that the last 2 days, but a few days out was too far out)

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FWIW I read the 12z EURO Control run was a beast, but I have no maps or link. Anyone who has seen it care to share the details?

I wouldn't call it a beast. Slp tracks across the FL panhandle to off the Ga coast and then kinda jumps/redevelops off the va coast. Mixed precip storm with 3-4 inches in dc/phl

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I wouldn't call it a beast. Slp tracks across the FL panhandle to off the Ga coast and then kinda jumps/redevelops off the va coast. Mixed precip storm with 3-4 inches in dc/phl

 

I think 3-5 is our high bar with this storm... I would take another 1-2 inches for fun... though a phase job... ;)

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I wouldn't call it a beast. Slp tracks across the FL panhandle to off the Ga coast and then kinda jumps/redevelops off the va coast. Mixed precip storm with 3-4 inches in dc/phl

Bob or someone withe WxBell, I just signed up. I'm trying to find the Euro precip maps for Eastern US but can't seem to find them. Could someone post a link? Thanks

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I agree with ya Yoda. Based on the current pattern, I'd set a max snowfall with this potential event @ 6"....We get a quick PNA spike, but it quickly fades and tons of energy crashes into the W Coast.

 

Dream scenario would be on tonight's model runs we start seeing the energy down south day 3-4 slow down significantly. this would give it more room to amplify & allow the N branch to catch up.

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I don't know guys. The issue I see with  this potential is even if we do get a storm is the cold air. Even if we do get a storm, with the limited cold air, there is going to be ptype issues especially along the coast.

 

Also the AO is going to be raging positive during this time frame.  Based off these facts my feeling tells me its a no go.

ao.sprd2.gif

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I don't know guys. The issue I see with  this potential is even if we do get a storm is the cold air. Even if we do get a storm, with the limited cold air, there is going to be ptype issues especially along the coast.

 

Also the AO is going to be raging positive during this time frame.  Based off these facts my feeling tells me its a no go.

ao.sprd2.gif

 

 

No blocking, but there is actually a shortwave near the 50/50 location around 96 hours that helps lock in a HP for a very short time period. Temps will be an issue if this storm even forms, but it won't be impossible

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Ignore that low the NAM has off SE coast @ 84 hours, typical NAM bias of misplacing LPs....EURO 12z @ 96 hours has the LP forming where it should be based on the 500mb, in the NE GOM...Look @ 500mb @ 84 hours on the 00z NAM the LP should be around the FL Pan Handle, not where it is on this run

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That being said the southern vort is farther E on NAM than the 12z EURO had it, but it trended W ...

...and that is all the NAM discussion I will take part in @ 84 hours lol....

Imagine if we get a GFS run that goes from OTS to a MECS....I'll go nuts

And you've made 3 too many posts for analyzing the 84 hour NAM...

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