yoda Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 18z GEFS mean closer, but still no cigar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 240 hrs total snow http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016012418&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=264 this winter sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Gefs basically says nope or weak sauce at best. I guess we gotta wait till the shortwave is sampled over land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Gefs basically says nope or weak sauce at best. I guess we gotta wait till the shortwave is sampled over land E19 is fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 2 feet of snow outside, sleep deprived, and still not satisfied. We need therapy. so if we can get this within 5 days... I'm perfectly happy, plenty of snow outside. What ills me is I love to follow the models. It's entertaining and I'm slightly addicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 FWIW I read the 12z EURO Control run was a beast, but I have no maps or link. Anyone who has seen it care to share the details? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Some stout CAD on the GFS at D10 It always underestimates CAD this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 FWIW I read the 12z EURO Control run was a beast, but I have no maps or link. Anyone who has seen it care to share the details? I dont see that on WxBell's Euro maps... unless you mean the SLP strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Bastardi liking the Thursday/Friday weekend thing fwiw: "Euro not Strong enough IMO as phasing likely on east Coast" Just a quick note here. The European I think is on to the threat on the east coast Thur into Friday but its operational............is likely to CORRECT WEST as the model gets more focused on the phasing. If we remember the past 2 events from 5 days out, the one last weekend, and the blizzard, the model corrected west. So its ensembles with numerous members to the northwest ( remember the storm yesterday stalled just southeast of Wallops before translating out, passing over ECG.. the model certainly caught that the last 2 days, but a few days out was too far out) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 FWIW I read the 12z EURO Control run was a beast, but I have no maps or link. Anyone who has seen it care to share the details? I wouldn't call it a beast. Slp tracks across the FL panhandle to off the Ga coast and then kinda jumps/redevelops off the va coast. Mixed precip storm with 3-4 inches in dc/phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I wouldn't call it a beast. Slp tracks across the FL panhandle to off the Ga coast and then kinda jumps/redevelops off the va coast. Mixed precip storm with 3-4 inches in dc/phl I think 3-5 is our high bar with this storm... I would take another 1-2 inches for fun... though a phase job... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 If GFS jumps on board tonight we will all have another sleepless week! LOL! This is the best time of year for us to see snow. I do not think the set ups look great until D9 - 15 like Bob said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I wouldn't call it a beast. Slp tracks across the FL panhandle to off the Ga coast and then kinda jumps/redevelops off the va coast. Mixed precip storm with 3-4 inches in dc/phl Bob or someone withe WxBell, I just signed up. I'm trying to find the Euro precip maps for Eastern US but can't seem to find them. Could someone post a link? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Bob or someone withe WxBell, I just signed up. I'm trying to find the Euro precip maps for Eastern US but can't seem to find them. Could someone post a link? Thanks never mind, just found it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Mitch, wxbell has crap piles of good maps but Nav is pretty disorganized. I'll pm you all the good links tomorrow so you don't have to learn the same way I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I agree with ya Yoda. Based on the current pattern, I'd set a max snowfall with this potential event @ 6"....We get a quick PNA spike, but it quickly fades and tons of energy crashes into the W Coast. Dream scenario would be on tonight's model runs we start seeing the energy down south day 3-4 slow down significantly. this would give it more room to amplify & allow the N branch to catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I don't know guys. The issue I see with this potential is even if we do get a storm is the cold air. Even if we do get a storm, with the limited cold air, there is going to be ptype issues especially along the coast. Also the AO is going to be raging positive during this time frame. Based off these facts my feeling tells me its a no go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Mitch, wxbell has crap piles of good maps but Nav is pretty disorganized. I'll pm you all the good links tomorrow so you don't have to learn the same way I did. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I don't know guys. The issue I see with this potential is even if we do get a storm is the cold air. Even if we do get a storm, with the limited cold air, there is going to be ptype issues especially along the coast. Also the AO is going to be raging positive during this time frame. Based off these facts my feeling tells me its a no go. No blocking, but there is actually a shortwave near the 50/50 location around 96 hours that helps lock in a HP for a very short time period. Temps will be an issue if this storm even forms, but it won't be impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 12z para euro is a miss to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 NAM looks extremely interesting @ 84 hours.....I know I know, but... It puts too much energy into the leadwave which might shift the baro. zone too far East, but this looks like a phase is incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 12z para euro is a miss to the east Bob is back in the game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Look at the piece of energy over NE Maine, that kind of locks in a temp. HP to its West which gives us some cold air to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 NAM is not buying what the Euro is selling on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 This probably interests me the most out of this run; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 NAM is not buying what the Euro is selling on this run. It is doing stupid NAM things with placement of low, but 500mb and 250mb actually argue that it is a close call here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 Been skiing all day...you boys make it seem like we have a chance. My glances at the GFS say its a slim one this week. Maybe the euro saves us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Ignore that low the NAM has off SE coast @ 84 hours, typical NAM bias of misplacing LPs....EURO 12z @ 96 hours has the LP forming where it should be based on the 500mb, in the NE GOM...Look @ 500mb @ 84 hours on the 00z NAM the LP should be around the FL Pan Handle, not where it is on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 That being said the southern vort is farther E on NAM than the 12z EURO had it, but it trended W ... ...and that is all the NAM discussion I will take part in @ 84 hours lol.... Imagine if we get a GFS run that goes from OTS to a MECS....I'll go nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 That being said the southern vort is farther E on NAM than the 12z EURO had it, but it trended W ... ...and that is all the NAM discussion I will take part in @ 84 hours lol.... Imagine if we get a GFS run that goes from OTS to a MECS....I'll go nuts And you've made 3 too many posts for analyzing the 84 hour NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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