Stovepipe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Reel it in Pipe! And Happy New Year! Happy new year brother! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18z RGEM snow: Freezing Rain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I've got a slight problem with some freezing rain tomorrow it seems. Y'all enjoy the white stuff, hopefully I won't be skating home from work tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The RAP and HRRR are sending a band of snow across the state early morning but I'm wondering if most of this will be virga as the dew points are still very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The RAP and HRRR are sending a band of snow across the state early morning but I'm wondering if most of this will be virga as the dew points are still very low. Yeah I'm betting so. The majority of precip that reaches the ground would be back where the southern fetch of moisture is feeding in. I keep waiting to see signs of that moisture streaming north into it on radar, still nothing appreciable yet on radar. Although looks as though low level moisture feeding it from the south is growing and expanding a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The entire state of Tennessee is under WWA now. SW TN counties are now added. All of KY and MO as well under some sort of warning or advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yeah I'm betting so. The majority of precip that reaches the ground would be back where the southern fetch of moisture is feeding in. I keep waiting to see signs of that moisture streaming north into it on radar, still nothing appreciable yet on radar. Although looks as though low level moisture feeding it from the south is growing and expanding a bit. Looking at the radar,could be coming in quicker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looking at the radar,could be coming in quicker? You know I was thinking the same thing... Like this thing is booking east, radar returns over Dyersburg already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Just got the call, schools are closed tomorrow. My kids are trippin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 You know I was thinking the same thing... Like this thing is booking east, radar returns over Dyersburg already. We needs some obs in west TN, I'm curious how long it'll take to penetrate the dry air. I've got folks in Paris and will post theirs when time comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wonder if this is a sign of forecast lows busting colder, my nws forecast low tonight is 20 via pinpoint forecast, currently 20 imby. Doubt warming before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 We needs some obs in west TN, I'm curious how long it'll take to penetrate the dry air. I've got folks in Paris and will post theirs when time comes. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl# Look at the 700mb Analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The Gulf starting to feed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl# Look at the 700mb Analysis interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl# Look at the 700mb Analysis Ok, I'm an idiot. I see the winds. What else am I looking at here that is telling the story? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The RH is what I was looking at. Think it gives a good example of where its likely precip would make it down to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The RH is what I was looking at. Think it gives a good example of where its likely precip would make it down to the surface. Ah gotcha, mean RH >= 70%. So the upper Cumberland is already potentially saturated. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Try the new plot they put in,(dendritic layer RH)it's under winter weather Edit:in case someone wants to know what it is http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/help/help_dendrh.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 iv'e got decent cloud cover now and was at 25 degrees at about 7PM and now am sitting at 26. I may have hit my low for the night. cloud cover should keep me from cooling off much from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 never been to this part of the site. lots of good stuff in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Sitting on 16 here. Expect snow will probably start towards day break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Try the new plot they put in,(dendritic layer RH)it's under winter weather Edit:in case someone wants to know what it is http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/help/help_dendrh.html Thanks man! Nothing falling in Henry County yet from what I just heard despite the returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN745 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016 .DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OFMO. FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SLEET OVER SRN MO...SOME FRZ RAINACROSS NRN AR. 00Z OHX SOUNDING REVEALED 850 MB TEMPS THAT WERESLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE MODELS. WET BULB ZERO PROFILES AT THE 850MB LEVEL SHOWS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE WEDGE OF WARMING ACROSS AR.PORTIONS OF NRN AR AND SRN MO SHOW FRZ RA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWERTO MID 20S...A TESTAMENT AS TO THE DEGREE OF WARM WEDGING THAT ISON GOING. SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN OK. SLIGHTINCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM AIR IN THE 800MB TO900 MB LEVEL WORKING EASTWARD. THIS WARMER AIR MAY VERY WELL MAKEIT INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO 12Z. THUS...I WILL GOAHEAD AND INCLUDE MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAINACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP MAKING IT ACROSS THE TNRIVER AND REACHING THE GROUND JUST AFT MIDNIGHT. THE MORESIGNIFICANT PRECIP APPEARS TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE TN RIVER RIGHTAROUND 6 AM. BASED ON THE LATEST 18Z NAM SOUNDINGS...IT STILLLOOKS LIKE ALL SNOW NORTH OF I-40. BUT...THAT SOUTHWEST AREA IS ACONCERN AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN COULDFALL. AGAIN...WILL OPT TO MODIFY THE WX GRIDS TO REFLECT THISACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL AREAS. SFC TEMPS STILL EXPECTEDTO WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY 9AM...AND THEN ALLBUT THE PLATEAU AREA BY NOON. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 0z NAM snow/ice totals for what it's worth: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmschatterbox Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 HI Guys!! Long time lurker! Ive been lurking for years! I have learned so much from all of you, and it makes me happy to see all of you back every year!! Just wondering if we have a timeline to when its going to start yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 0z NAM snow/ice totals for what it's worth: HI-RES nam was interesting as well. Edit: Max 6.8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 HELLO! That's approaching warning criteria across much of east TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 HELLO! That's approaching warning criteria across much of east TN. MRX calls it an outliner on their latest disc .DISCUSSION... LIGHT PRECIP IS SEEN ON RADAR MOVING INTO MIDDLE TN...BUT NOTHINGIS REACHING THE GROUND YET EAST OF THE MS RIVER...AS THE 00Z OHXSOUNDING SHOWS A DRY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 850 MB. A FEWLIGHT FLURRIES MAY REACH THE GROUND BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT THEMEASURABLE PRECIP WILL LIKELY COME INTO THE PLATEAU AROUND 12-15Z.THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FORECAST TIMING ANDP-TYPE...WITH A SNOW/SLEET/FZRA MIX SOUTH OF KNOXVILLE...AND ALLSNOW NORTH. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH HEAVIER SNOWAMOUNTS...WHICH GIVEN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...SEEMSTOO HIGH. THE CURRENT FORECAST AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES REMAIN INLINE WITH THE GFS/SREF/ECMWF CONCENSUS.NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 HELLO! That's approaching warning criteria across much of east TN. Very interesting. NAM has consistently been north with the heavier snows in south central KY while the euro, euro control, and rgem have been south with that banding in northern middle TN. Will be interesting to see which model wins there. Also interesting is the larger max further east into northeast TN too. Pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Earlier I predicted MRX would eventually up snow totals pretty much area wide 2-4".... Just to spite me i'm sure, they upped totals but 2-3"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.