Mr Bob Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It looks fairly certain there will be widespread school closings tomorrow. I know the teachers at my kids' school were buzzing with excitement this morning. I hope Knox county doesn't screw up like they did back in 2014 and not call off school, then have numerous wrecks as parents scramble to pick kids up mid morning. At the very least roads around schools should be heavily salted. They didn't even salt in the 2014 incident. Apparently the superintendent based his decision to stay open off a Matt Hinkin forecast from the night before. That is always a bad move. Many lessons learned from Jan 2014....from Knox all the way to Atlanta.....They may as well use them now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It looks fairly certain there will be widespread school closings tomorrow. I know the teachers at my kids' school were buzzing with excitement this morning. I hope Knox county doesn't screw up like they did back in 2014 and not call off school, then have numerous wrecks as parents scramble to pick kids up mid morning. At the very least roads around schools should be heavily salted. They didn't even salt in the 2014 incident. Apparently the superintendent based his decision to stay open off a Matt Hinkin forecast from the night before. That is always a bad move. Matt is the guy that misses the most with winter weather compared to the other local meteorologists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z RGEM snow: Freezing Rain: Mercy. That looks really good for our folks in middle and west TN. Definitely hope they get a great snow. Hey, for you all that live out there, be sure to post some observations. We get to live vicariously w/ you and it helps w/ downstream predictions. edit: Interesting to see that make it to the lee of the Apps. Pretty strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It looks fairly certain there will be widespread school closings tomorrow. I know the teachers at my kids' school were buzzing with excitement this morning. I hope Knox county doesn't screw up like they did back in 2014 and not call off school, then have numerous wrecks as parents scramble to pick kids up mid morning. At the very least roads around schools should be heavily salted. They didn't even salt in the 2014 incident. Apparently the superintendent based his decision to stay open off a Matt Hinkin forecast from the night before. That is always a bad move. Nashville north is looking good, we shall see, honestly, everyone in TN should get something from this one imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z GFS snow: Freezing Rain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It looks fairly certain there will be widespread school closings tomorrow. I know the teachers at my kids' school were buzzing with excitement this morning. I hope Knox county doesn't screw up like they did back in 2014 and not call off school, then have numerous wrecks as parents scramble to pick kids up mid morning. At the very least roads around schools should be heavily salted. They didn't even salt in the 2014 incident. Apparently the superintendent based his decision to stay open off a Matt Hinkin forecast from the night before. That is always a bad move. I noticed a TDOT truck just drive by my workplace--putting the brine on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 What is the timing on all of this from say north of Memphis to Jackson to BNA to TYS to TRI? I think Tri-Cities schools will roll in the main cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Text off the GFS says the warm nose don't arrive forBNA until 18z,should be all snow.But warm noses are notorious to be underdone in our parts.Remember when we was in a WSW last year,the models failed with it,instead of snow we just got rn and ip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Text off the GFS says the warm nose don't arrive forBNA until 18z,should be all snow.But warm noses are notorious to be underdone in our parts.Remember when we was in a WSW last year,the models failed with it,instead of snow we just got rn and ip Yeah warm nose has ruined many a party. However Nash will do well with an earlier start to precip probably 4am ish.... Dry air as well for some evaporative cooling. I don't think that if warm nose occurs that it will happen while precip is heaviest, it'll be when the precip is moving out. Same for most of east TN though I would draw that line further south than I-40. I would put that line about 30 miles south of I-40 in east TN. Athens to Dayton to Pikeville line and north I would be comfortable saying predominately snow with only minor end of precip change over when forcing is weakening, but not enough to inhibit snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yeah warm nose has ruined many a party. However Nash will do well with an earlier start to precip probably 4am ish.... Dry air as well for some evaporative cooling. I don't think that if warm nose occurs that it will happen while precip is heaviest, it'll be when the precip is moving out. Same for most of east TN though I would draw that line further south than I-40. I would put that line about 30 miles south of I-40 in east TN. Athens to Dayton to Pikeville line and north I would be comfortable saying predominately snow with only minor end of precip change over when forcing is weakening, but not enough to inhibit snow totals. Definite agree.Lower elevations it's better to see this fall early than later in the day when you have not much wiggle room with layer temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 BUT.....with this Knox County Superintendent resigning effective in July.....no telling what this clowns decision will be. Don't mean to muddle the board...but he grates my nerves like very few people can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Definite agree.Lower elevations it's better to see this fall early than later in the day when you have not much wiggle room with layer temps Keep in mind the number of hours your ground has been below freezing. It's going to be instant problems, regardless of what falls from the skies, though my guess is a pretty good snow thump. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Side note I did see TDOT out brining I-40 in West Knox about an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z GGEM snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z GGEM snow: Of all these clown maps I think this one is closest to what I think will be. Only thing I would do with that map to change it is remove the brightest shade of blue. Otherwise I think its pretty spot on. I think max snow fall with this will be under 6" but some totals in northern middle TN and southern middle KY I could see hitting 5 or even just over locally. The rest of the clown colors with GGEM I buy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I also think by late night updates from both OHX and MRX they will up their totals to general widespread 2-4" with locally as high as 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I believe from the Plateau westward is solid for a couple of inches with 3-5" max along the KY/TN border. Eastward...eh. Hopefully, this is as strong as later model runs have shown. However, I can't discount the cold, dry air and a weakening precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z Euro pretty much like 0z with widespread 2-4 inches in all but southwestern areas. Eastern valley from TYS to TRI is covered in 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm going to go with my cut the clown in half method and figure on 1-2 and hope for a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Paducah KY NWS upgraded their entire CWA to Winter Storm Warning from Advisory. Originally calling for 1-3, now calling for general 3-5 with a band of 6-8 setting up somewhere in their CWA.... Interesting, makes me wonder about further downstream in our direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 PER MRX: FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...ENOUGH COLD AIR IS PRESENT FOR SNOWSHOWERS TO BEGIN IN THE MORNING...LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.AREAS IN CENTRAL VALLEY AND PLATEAU COULD SEE SLEET THROUGH THEAFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPERATURES LEVEL AT THE FREEZING MARK...BUTSNOWFALL IS THE MAIN ACCUMULATION TYPE. UP TO THREE INCHESPOSSIBLE IN NORTHERN PLATEAU...NORTHEASTERN TN...SW VA...AND HIGHERELEVATIONS IN EAST TN. THE VALLEY COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES...WITHSOUTHERN VALLEY AND PLATEAU ACCUMULATING A LITTLE OVER ONE INCH.WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING THROUGH AT LEAST 6ZTOMORROW NIGHT AND WILL LET EVENING/MORNING SHIFT DECIDE ON ANYCONTINUATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM gets pretty close to warning criteria snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM gets pretty close to warning criteria snows. I believe the criteria for a Winter Storm Warning in East Tennessee is: 1. At least 4 inches in a 12 hour period. And/Or 2. Ice accretions at least .25 of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I believe the criteria for a Winter Storm Warning in East Tennessee is: 1. At least 4 inches in a 12 hour period. And/Or 2. Ice accretions at least .25 of an inch. Correct, plus the following added to the list: 6" of Snow or greater within a 24 hour period. and/or 0.5"+ of Sleet http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mrx/?n=watchwarnadv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Well it feels good to be within RAP range of some snow. Here's 13z tomorrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Here is the accumulated snow at 13z to go along with that RAP map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Impressive growth and just starting to draw some moisture a bit. Its really just now starting to interact with the low coming out of theTexas panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Uh oh.... The Weather Channel named this storm.... You know what that means?!?! Fill in the punch line. Ilias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Well it feels good to be within RAP range of some snow. Here's 13z tomorrow: Here's a good comparison at 13z with the HRRR Experimental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z Euro pretty much like 0z with widespread 2-4 inches in all but southwestern areas. Eastern valley from TYS to TRI is covered in 3 inches. Reel it in Pipe! And Happy New Year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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