Runman292 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro doesn't look great for storm 2 as of it's new run but looks better for this one than other models. Keeps the snow line very far south and gives a good portion of the Valley 2-4 inches. It shows 3 inches in my backyard in North Knoxville. I sure hope that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 MRX Snow and Ice Accumulations Forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Looks like I'm in the 2-3 inch area. I'd take that in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z Euro EPS control run gives northern middle Tennessee generally 3 inches on Wednesday. Generally around 2 inches for areas just south of northern middle Tennessee and generally the two inch line is from far northwest TN to southeast TN (just north of Chattanooga). Lesser amounts as you get into northeast TN on the control, but still around 1.5 to 2 inches. The 12z EPS mean also generally agrees, though has lesser total amounts (1.5-2.5 inches shown) in generally the same areas and same orientation as the control (which at this stage it's to be expected to give the same general look) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 NAM finally chilled down pretty well with this wave. 2-4 along the TN/KY border though middle Tn with 1-3 else where except the far southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 MRX AFD regarding this storm: .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS IN GENERALAGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH IMPORTANT DIFFERENCESESPECIALLY WITH WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUTAVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVERALL. SHOULD BE DRY AND COLDTUESDAY NIGHT...THEN MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITH AWEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. WILL BEPLENTY OF COLD AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA INITIALLY...AND MODELSDIFFER ON HOW MUCH OF A WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT WITH THE NAM MUCHMORE AGGRESSIVE. GIVEN THAT IT IS STILL MORE THAN 36 HOURSOUT...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MORE MODEL FLUCTUATIONS.HOWEVER...DOES APPEAR THAT A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THEAREA WITH SNOW AND SLEET POSSIBLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TORAIN/FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ONTHE LIGHT SIDE...BUT AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER. WILL MENTIONIN HWO FOR NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 SREF Plumes have slowly ticked up each run for TRI. Went from half an inch at 3z, 1 inch on 9z, 1.5 on 15z. 15z has all members showing snow for TRI (lowest at .25 with several big dogs between 2 to 3). Knox has been steady at around half an inch. Crossville steady at around an inch. Nashville steady at around half an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think this one looks better the further west you are since it will be weakening as it approaches. I am hopeful but wary still. I can remember a system like this a couple of years ago that had wide spread agreement on 1-3 inches, WWA were in place and everything, then it died out as it got to Nashville and we barely had a passing flurry. I guess it's just jitters over it ever snowing during certain years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think this one looks better the further west you are since it will be weakening as it approaches. I am hopeful but wary still. I can remember a system like this a couple of years ago that had wide spread agreement on 1-3 inches, WWA were in place and everything, then it died out as it got to Nashville and we barely had a passing flurry. I guess it's just jitters over it ever snowing during certain years. I can agree with this statement. I really think Nashville proper and points north look good to go for 1-3 inches Wednesday. Further east, relying on a system hanging together is something that could easily bust. Time will tell, hope we can also score a couple of inches. John, I do feel better about your chances than KTRI's. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think this one looks better the further west you are since it will be weakening as it approaches. I am hopeful but wary still. I can remember a system like this a couple of years ago that had wide spread agreement on 1-3 inches, WWA were in place and everything, then it died out as it got to Nashville and we barely had a passing flurry. I guess it's just jitters over it ever snowing during certain years. I remember that I think! Major let down. I also think I remember one back in early 2000's of similar origin and trajectory where we were forecast a dusting and no advisories placed then ended up with 3 inches and not just local anomaly but widespread. These can be tricky. I'm really surprised MRX put out snow totals already, especially when in their AFD mention model fluctuations and 36 more hours to go yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 18z RGEM gives Middle Tennessee 4-6 out of this one. Very heavy snow right along the 40 corridor. Pulling for the Nashville folks that it somehow happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think this one looks better the further west you are since it will be weakening as it approaches. I am hopeful but wary still. I can remember a system like this a couple of years ago that had wide spread agreement on 1-3 inches, WWA were in place and everything, then it died out as it got to Nashville and we barely had a passing flurry. I guess it's just jitters over it ever snowing during certain years. When the local guys, especially David Aldrich, says 1-3 for East Tennessee,then I'm no longer nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 When the local guys, especially David Aldrich, says 1-3 for East Tennessee,then I'm no longer nervous. I'm not as trusting of Aldrich as you are. He pretty much seems to look at a model clown map and then throw it out there a lot of times. That's what led him to the 9th to 14th snow forecast recently that he busted on. The Euro had just shown the big snow event that it only kept briefly and the GFS was showing it too. But it was 8-10 days out at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The RGEM love letter to Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 When the local guys, especially David Aldrich, says 1-3 for East Tennessee,then I'm no longer nervous. I don't trust local mets so much. Nothing against them really, they just feel more personality centric (meat puppets if you will) and less WX centric. My same issue with The Weather Channel, although to The Weather Channels credit they have made some improvements over the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'm not as trusting of Aldrich as you are. He pretty much seems to look at a model clown map and then throw it out there a lot of times. That's what led him to the 9th to 14th snow forecast recently that he busted on. The Euro had just shown the big snow event that it only kept briefly and the GFS was showing it too. But it was 8-10 days out at the time. You can use that example if you want, but I can do the same in his favor. In January 2014 3 days before a storm, he was the only guy saying 2-5 inches for the Central Valley. The other mets dismissed the storm and said that there would only be a dusting for Knoxville. When the day came, I looked outside in South Knoxville and saw 4 inches of snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The RGEM love letter to Nashville. John, looks south of other models. So...not trying to hijack this thread, but that has effects on the system right behind it, right? Could it be that the other system(EC event) is further south as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I never get too wound up over the RGEM past 36 hours. It has a really good track record 36 and under though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 18Z GFS... Sticking to a widespread 1-3 most of the region minus southwest TN. Clarksville to Plateau seem to be the lucky ones with the higher end of that 1-3 maybe some 4s and 5s in places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Upstream NWS offices have WWAs out for this storm. Was looking through those looks like the maximum amount forecast was 5". Most of the advisories are set for 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It's trended better today, a little more moist, a little colder. I think a lot of us have a good shot at seeing 2 inches or more tomorrow. It will fall very heavily at times too. After a high of 19 here and a low predicted of 3 tonight, the ground will take every flake that falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I think sleet and zr will keep us under 1" total down here. The GFS has a good thump of wet snow to start, but I'm not sure that I buy the cold air hanging on for that long. If the temps are correct it will be a traffic nightmare until late afternoon Wednesday. ZR washes pretreating brine off roadways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Peachtree City issued Winter Storm Watch for North GA... Seems extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Peachtree City issued Winter Storm Watch for North GA... Seems extreme. .1 to .2 inch of ice accretion with a couple inches of snow is definitely worthy of a Winter Storm Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 .1 to .2 inch of ice accretion with a few inches of snow is definitely worthy of a Winter Storm Watch. True the ice makes all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 True the ice makes all the difference. That ice amount is close to being ice storm warning worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The debacle in Atlanta just a few years ago means they will likely err on the side of caution with ANY possible snow system.. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Atlanta also has a different standard for Winter Storm criteria. The 2 inches of snow alone in such a short time might be enough there. On the other hand, I've seen 8 inch totals only warrant a winter weather advisory in Michigan and Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Atlanta also has a different standard for Winter Storm criteria. The 2 inches of snow alone in such a short time might be enough there. On the other hand, I've seen 8 inch totals only warrant a winter weather advisory in Michigan and Maine. Yeah true, I'm originally from Michigan, can remember many a childhood storm of many inches be absolutely no issue. Though haven't lived there since I was 10 years old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Here's the 0z NAM 12km snow output (no ice or sleet included): And freezing rain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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