1234snow Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I figured if we are going to see some snow this winter I would bring some mojo and start a thread. I think this is my first thread ever on here so I want a perfect record lol. This thread is for the mid week threat. This system looks clipper like on the precip maps but it really comes from the Pacific. This storm is going to have to thread the needle in a few different ways. #1) There isn't a lot of cold air hanging around by the time the precip comes but there should be just enough on the front end to allow for mostly snow on a line from just north of Nashville east to the mountains. The Euro has higher totals north but the GFS has accumulation all the way south into the southern valley. #2) As the shortwave dampens out the precip erodes away further east towards the mountains. One trend to watch for Knoxville and KTRI is if the precip can hold together longer. I think closer to just north of Nashville will have the best shot at the highest totals Here's the 0z GFS: Here's the 0z Euro: Good luck to everyone and let's reel this baby in. It might be all we get this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 What's the gray area in south Carolina on the euro Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 What's the gray area in south Carolina on the euro Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk A trace to one half inch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 12z Euro was less impressive with the snow but still looked to give out 1-3 inches over parts of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 0z NAM clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 NAM is a little warm but has a lot of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 NAM is a little warm but has a lot of precip. Bit of a different look. To my untrained eye, seems like it just does not make a clean passage. Seems like some of that energy stalls and may get caught by the system TR/FR digging right behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 NAM seems to be a bit warm and bit heavy with precip a lot of the time I have noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This was posted yesterday on the HWO issued by MRX: A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT PATH AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE ARCTIC AIR MODERATES...THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF LIGHT SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID- WEEK. They're saying that this could potentially be an ice type event, which I hope doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This was posted yesterday on the HWO issued by MRX: They're saying that this could potentially be an ice type event, which I hope doesn't happen. I think that's referring to Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think that's referring to Wednesday. The 20th storm would happen on Wednesday. I'm pretty sure this was posted on the right thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 20th storm would happen on Wednesday. I'm pretty sure this was posted on the right thread. You're right, I was in the wrong thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 MRX point forecast is extremely convoluted for my area. I assume it's just the computer struggling with precip type issues. Wednesday Rain, snow, and sleet likely before 4pm, then rain likely between 4pm and 5pm, then rain and snow likely after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Night Rain and snow likely before 11pm, then a chance of rain between 11pm and 1am, then a chance of freezing rain after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday A chance of sleet before 9am, then a chance of rain and snow between 9am and 10am, then a chance of rain after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 MRX afd. TUESDAY NIGHT THE HIGH SHIFTSEAST AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEATHERPATTERN BECOMES ACTIVE AS A SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEYTUESDAY NIGHT THEN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAYNIGHT. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY. AS COLD AIRREMAINS OVER THE AREA THE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SLEET OR SNOWBEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM. A FEW INCHES OFSNOW MAY ACCUMULATE BEFORE THE TRANSITION. ALSO WHERE COLD AIRBECOMES TRAPPED SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY FALL WEDNESDAY ORWEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ASTHE TRANSITION TIME IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Nashville disco. BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY THE FUN WILL BEGIN. WITH ALL OF THE COLD AIRALREADY IN PLACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH PLENTY OF ASSOCIATEDPRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE STATE. AS IT DOES...WEWILL BE PRESENTED WITH A VERY TRICKY FORECAST. A NOSE OF WARM AIRALOFT WILL NUDGE ITS WAY IN AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS.WHILE THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION COULD BE SNOW AND ICE PELLETS...THEWARM NOSE STRENGTHENS AND BY MID-MORNING...A GOOD PORTION OF THE MID-STATE COULD BE DEALING WITH FREEZING RAIN FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OFHOURS. THIS WILL PRESENT SOME TRAVEL HAZARDS PRIOR TO THE NOON HOURBUT BY MID-AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD WARM UP JUST ENOUGH TO CHANGE THEFREEZING RAIN BACK TO RAIN FOR MOST OF THE MID-STATE AND MELTANYTHING THAT ACCUMULATES IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...I AM SEEINGFORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SPOTS ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THAT DO NOTGET ABOVE FREEZING AND THIS COULD PRESENT A PROLONGED ICEACCUMULATION PROBLEM. WITH THE FACT THAT WE`RE 48 HOURS OUT ANDTHERE WILL LIKELY BE CHANGES IN THE MODELS BETWEEN NOW ANDTHEN...KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Will be interesting to see how this little system plays out. It could certainly provide a TON of headaches in and around northern middle Tennessee on Wednesday morning. Further east, I would think the timing of the system coming in later in the day may allow others to catch a break even if there is a minor accumulation further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Will be interesting to see how this little system plays out. It could certainly provide a TON of headaches in and around northern middle Tennessee on Wednesday morning. Further east, I would think the timing of the system coming in later in the day may allow others to catch a break even if there is a minor accumulation further east. New nam is beefier in KY AND SWVA, but virtually blanks TN. I'm not sure I quite buy its temperature profile yet. Like John said its warmer than GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 I can't remember what Nashville's streak of not having more than 1 inch of snow is but I think they break it Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I can't remember what Nashville's streak of not having more than 1 inch of snow is but I think they break it Wednesday. We moved to Williamson Co. in 2011,which if just South of Davidson Co (Nashville),we haven't had a inch of snow here from any storm,not sure about the years prior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Going to bump this thread up for 1.20 event posts. The other thread is for the big coastal. This one is for the piece of energy that precedes it. Sorry for any confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 12z GFS ensembles say a nice little punch of wintry goodness is going to hit northern middle TN Wednesday. If I was down your way, I'd be stoked this little system could translate into something more than was originally thought just a couple of days ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think the 12z GFS was the best run so far for the state on this midweek system. If this is the case Nashville breaks the streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think the 12z GFS was the best run so far for the state on this midweek system. If this is the case Nashville breaks the streak. Not a great run for the Central Valley in East TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Not a great run for the Central Valley in East TN. Yeah the moisture starts weakening very fast once it comes east of the plateau. It has been that way on the models for the past several runs. We would have to have our shortwave stay stronger longer to help us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yeah the moisture starts weakening very fast once it comes east of the plateau. It has been that way on the models for the past several runs. We would have to have our shortwave stay stronger longer to help us out. Does that model take into account freezing rain and sleet? If not, that might be the reason the snow amounts isn't that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I can't remember what Nashville's streak of not having more than 1 inch of snow is but I think they break it Wednesday. It ended last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yeah the moisture starts weakening very fast once it comes east of the plateau. It has been that way on the models for the past several runs. We would have to have our shortwave stay stronger longer to help us out. The 12z NAM holds it together much longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 so far for BNa i got .33 qpf's all frozen,Euro is much colder than past runs up to 12z Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro doesn't look great for storm 2 as of it's new run but looks better for this one than other models. Keeps the snow line very far south and gives a good portion of the Valley 2-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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