Chambana Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 What's up with this 6-10" band showing up for C. Missouri-C.Illinois? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 unrelated fantasy storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 unrelated fantasy storm Oops. My mistake. Got excited and didn't look at dates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If we can get a powerhouse Nina and an untouched Gulf next year (like we had into late Dec this year), then that's technically on the table when the sea-ice melt driven -AO goes into turbo mode again. I like the way you talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 definitely a handful of suicide members on the 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Towel is in my hand waiting to be thrown at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 My call for I-70 at this point would be 2"-3". Something, I guess, but pretty heartbreaking considering what would happen just a little further south. Agree at this point. 2-3" nothing more than what we had the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 DT dropping F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Oddly the Euro looks north ??? OMG it is a total whiff north of the OH river. Just CRAZY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Oddly the Euro looks north i've got some bad news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Wow. Lots of unhappy people north of DC on the 12z Euro. But holy s**t, Richmond with 36"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 LOL...the mid-atlantic weenies are on suicide watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 LOL...the mid-atlantic weenies are on suicide watch! still kills DC and DT gets crushed. Philly bridges lining with weenies as we speak. Just crazy. Here's a for instance, Johnstown, PA gets 30" on the GFS and flurries on the euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Gosh I guess I can give it another run before punting the whole winter down here. Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Officially throwing in the towel on this one (probz a day too late). I think I-70 corridor south is in a good spot for at least a few inches. CLE-YNG corridor iffier but still needs to keep an eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 LOL...the mid-atlantic weenies are on suicide watch!. Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If we can get a powerhouse Nina and an untouched Gulf next year (like we had into late Dec this year), then that's technically on the table when the sea-ice melt driven -AO goes into turbo mode again. This must be longest range wish casting I have seen yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Any other winter the Euro would be far northwest of the GFS and the GFS would eventually cave to the Euro. I don't know what to do when the Euro is south of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 EURO's fallible. This isn't 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Gosh I guess I can give it another run before punting the whole winter down here. Yikes if a legit suppressed trend is going to happen, the euro will be the first to find it. Could be a hiccup but if I lived in the epicenter of modeled snow up to this point, I'd be sweating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 EURO's fallible. This isn't 2008. i'd be much more comfortable discounting the euro if so many of the 12z GEFS weren't clunkers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 LOL...the mid-atlantic weenies are on suicide watch! But wow, what a shift. I knew just by looking at the 24hr increment upper air maps that this was going to be south, but I didn't imagine this far south everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 ??? OMG it is a total whiff north of the OH river. Just CRAZY Yeah it takes the track to N Alabama/Mississippi then transfers straight east off the coast from there. It's a flatter track until the coast. We are screwed up here. I just want to see the 0z to confirm my white flag once it's sampled a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 i'd be much more comfortable discounting the euro if so many of the 12z GEFS weren't clunkers Even on the 12z EURO the trough is already neutral tilt by the time it reaches the MS river. It's just with the fast split flow any kind of digging/phasing from the northern stream is negated. The thing ends up cutting off and wobbling laterally. It's possible that ends up being the case but the OH folks do have some wiggle room. Only need slightly more amplification to drag this 100 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Euro has been so inconsistent with this from the start. Until I see other models start agreeing, i'm not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 I was doing the comparison loop for the 5h maps and around hr 60 you could see a significant difference in the trough alignment, It was still positive whereas the 00z was going negative. I knew we were finished at that point. Also the euro closed the low and kept it way south into SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 if a legit suppressed trend is going to happen, the euro will be the first to find it. Could be a hiccup but if I lived in the epicenter of modeled snow up to this point, I'd be sweating.There's a reason I was more worried about suppression than a rainer here but I was starting to feel pretty good last night when the Euro ensembles kept edging NW. We can wait one more run before jumping ship I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 My 2" call is looking crazy generous now. Oh well, I did say that it was highly unlikely to see even average snowfall this season, so it's playing out about right so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I was doing the comparison loop for the 5h maps and around hr 60 you could see a significant difference in the trough alignment, It was still positive whereas the 00z was going negative. I knew we were finished at that point. Also the euro closed the low and kept it way south into SC. ensembles will be interesting for you guys, still a couple more model cycles before i'd throw in the towel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 West shore Lake Michigan folks, how are we feeling about the LE? Models still hung on a band developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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