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Jan. 22nd-23rd threat


buckeye

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???   OMG it is a total whiff north of the OH river.   Just CRAZY :lmao:

Yeah it takes the track to N Alabama/Mississippi then transfers straight east off the coast from there. It's a flatter track until the coast. We are screwed up here. I just want to see the 0z to confirm my white flag once it's sampled a bit.

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i'd be much more comfortable discounting the euro if so many of the 12z GEFS weren't clunkers

 

Even on the 12z EURO the trough is already neutral tilt by the time it reaches the MS river. It's just with the fast split flow any kind of digging/phasing from the northern stream is negated. The thing ends up cutting off and wobbling laterally. It's possible that ends up being the case but the OH folks do have some wiggle room. Only need slightly more amplification to drag this 100 miles north.

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if a legit suppressed trend is going to happen, the euro will be the first to find it. Could be a hiccup but if I lived in the epicenter of modeled snow up to this point, I'd be sweating.

There's a reason I was more worried about suppression than a rainer here but I was starting to feel pretty good last night when the Euro ensembles kept edging NW. We can wait one more run before jumping ship I guess...
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I was doing the comparison loop for the 5h maps and around hr 60 you could see a significant difference in the trough alignment,  It was still positive whereas the 00z was going negative.  I knew we were finished at that point.  Also the euro closed the low and kept it way south into SC.  

 

 

ensembles will be interesting for you guys, still a couple more model cycles before i'd throw in the towel

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