osubrett2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS snowmap doesn't look as bad as I suspected the way the run panned out. Most of Central Ohio still sees 2-3" as jb mentioned above. 6" from Lancaster up to Newark. Maybe living east of 71 can help in our favor this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12Z GFS looking about the same. Puts that 6" line right up to buckeye, jb, and me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 12Z GFS looking about the same. Puts that 6" line right up to buckeye, jb, and me. I have the model page here which is great for trend looping and everything fairly similar to previous runs. Only subtle diff is the low closes off over OH for a bit longer and overall a tad slower. The coastal is a hair west. I was going to wait for the euro but I'll throw out my first call : cmh 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 There wasn't a huge change in snow amounts on the 12z GFS but it was a bit sharper with the trough and a bit quicker to close off the upper low this run. Not huge changes but positive ones if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 How can I lock this in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Geez, DC gets absolutely destroyed. Lucky punks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 ggem kind of a combination between yesterdays 12z and last nights 00z. Things pretty stable today. At 00z we will be entering that 72 hour window where things can always trend better or worse. I suspect the euro will hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Geez, DC gets absolutely destroyed. Lucky punks! yea I don't know what I'm more jealous of, the huge amounts of snow or the fact that they've been able to shoot their loads over and over again with virtually every model and every run, the past 3 days. When does that EVER happen? After all, the tracking is the second best part of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 How can I lock this in? SnowGFS.jpg /\ my favorite part of that map is there isn't really a sharp gradient. Lots of spread the wealth, middle class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 yea I don't know what I'm more jealous of, the huge amounts of snow or the fact that they've been able to shoot their loads over and over again with virtually every model and every run, the past 3 days. When does that EVER happen? After all, the tracking is the second best part of a storm. happens all the time with the big dogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 yea I don't know what I'm more jealous of, the huge amounts of snow or the fact that they've been able to shoot their loads over and over again with virtually every model and every run, the past 3 days. When does that EVER happen? After all, the tracking is the second best part of a storm. Yeah, usually there's a lot of waffling north and south for them, and usually major waffling on the rain/snow line for them...just like us. But EVERY run for this one has been 2 feet+ for their area. Very rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 happens all the time with the big dogs There is almost always waffling with the rain/snow line...particularly with the big dogs. Believe me, I lived in Philly for my first 23 years, it was always dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yeah, usually there's a lot of waffling north and south for them, and usually major waffling on the rain/snow line for them...just like us. But EVERY run for this one has been 2 feet+ for their area. Very rare. I think you nailed it, it's not so much about a modeled storm showing continuity in general track, it's the incredible consistency with the specific bullseye for the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Geez, DC gets absolutely destroyed. Lucky punks! This is why I miss the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This is why I miss the east coast. much better big storm winter climate, hands down + you don't have to live in the middle of nowhere or a depressing lake town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 ggem very similar in snow amounts over ohio as gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I saw Paul Kocin compared this to the January 96 blizzard, among others. What are the chances we can setup an Atlantic conveyor belt this far west like that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 I just gave my daughter in Morgantown a big heads up....told her to watch where she parks her car on campus because it's probably not going to be moving for awhile. This reminds me of a few of the biggies we use to get back in my WVU daze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 much better big storm winter climate, hands down + you don't have to live in the middle of nowhere or a depressing lake town Almost always riding the edge of the rain/snow line though. But with the past several winters, there's been one of these every single year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Gosh I almost feel like a snob hoping those very heavy snow amounts bump north. It's not like 6 or 8" isn't a good amount of snow here, but I figure if it's going to snow us in on Saturday it might as well really snow us in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 much better big storm winter climate, hands down + you don't have to live in the middle of nowhere or a depressing lake town The dry/cold is really getting to you. It's depressing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 I saw Paul Kocin compared this to the January 96 blizzard, among others. What are the chances we can setup an Atlantic conveyor belt this far west like that one? well considering that one ended up being a now cast and the forecast this far out was for no chance of snow at all....I wouldn't mind that analog one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 much better big storm winter climate, hands down + you don't have to live in the middle of nowhere or a depressing lake town You've had a big dog the last 3 years. Now mind your p's and q's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 You've had a big dog the last 3 years. Now mind your p's and q's These are the storms that really put climo into perspective for Ohio. West of the Apps, we can wish for the 6-8" fringe scraps while areas to the east see widespread 2' accumulations. Even here in Cleveland, it would only take a mere 2.8" to be the largest snow storm of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GEFS mean looks less generous here...about 2-4". Makes you want to cry when you see how close the big dog totals are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 You've had a big dog the last 3 years. Now mind your p's and q's i've been lucky to see multiple 20"+ events but the 2'+ strata is east coast territory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 bo, i'd go insane if i lived up there, seriously insane but i crave human interaction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Definite bump south on the GEFS. I have an uneasy feeling as we await the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 i've been lucky to see multiple 20"+ events but the 2'+ strata is east coast territory If we can get a powerhouse Nina and an untouched Gulf next year (like we had into late Dec this year), then that's technically on the table when the sea-ice melt driven -AO goes into turbo mode again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Definite bump south on the GEFS. I have an uneasy feeling as we await the Euro. Me too, particularly after looking at the individual members. Pretty ugly. The op seems to be on the NW side of the guidance envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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