vespasian70 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The ensemble mean did bump snow a little farther north. If we can get this to phase a tad sooner we'd probably be as good as we can get IMO. How soon that low closes off will make or break us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The ensemble mean did bump snow a little farther north. If we can get this to phase a tad sooner we'd probably be as good as we can get IMO.Wondering though about a strong NE surface wind and dry Arctic air. Could cause a sharp cut off and even eat away more at the northern edge. Wonder if the Euro is picking that up? NAM hints at the crazy cut off at hr 84.Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The good news: not much changed on the 06Z GFS. The bad news: not much changed on the 06Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Lots of wishcasting going on here. Let's just give this one to the southern posters (Although it may blow my SDF prediction out of the water ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingyball Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This is my first year in Ohio so a Se Transfer is a new term for me (we never had to deal with them in Texas) Is it inevitable for it to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 The ensemble mean did bump snow a little farther north. If we can get this to phase a tad sooner we'd probably be as good as we can get IMO. low positions don't look horrible. Lots of them further nw then the op early on. Pondo nailed it with his prediction that the 00z would trend south again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 low positions don't look horrible. Lots of them further nw then the op early on. Pondo nailed it with his prediction that the 00z would trend south again It will be interesting to see once it's truly sampled (I'm assuming today sometime?) where it will end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 This is my first year in Ohio so a Se Transfer is a new term for me (we never had to deal with them in Texas) Is it inevitable for it to happen? In my experience it almost never unfolds as the models show outside of 48 hours. Either the strength and latitude of the primary is mishandled or the timing and position of the transfer is mishandled. Either way, it does have screw job potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 low positions don't look horrible. Lots of them further nw then the op early on. Pondo nailed it with his prediction that the 00z would trend south againQuestion is does 12z stay south or trend north again? I think today it starts to lock in so I think 12z stays the course of 0z w/ no huge changes either way.BTW, I'm not a meteorologist, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 In my experience it almost never unfolds as the models show outside of 48 hours. Either the strength and latitude of the primary is mishandled or the timing and position of the transfer is mishandled. Either way, it does have screw job potential.I don't know why, but you're right that these low hand offs are almost always mishandled. And it seems not usually in our favor lol Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Lots of wishcasting going on here. Let's just give this one to the southern posters (Although it may blow my SDF prediction out of the water ). well allow me to pile on : the good news is the dgex is a hit the bad news is the dgex is a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 hope the dgex verifies, buckeye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 hope the dgex verifies, buckeye thanks, if it does I'll send you a bag of jelly beans that come out of my unicorn's ass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Don't have a good feeling about the 12z runs. I don't have any support of why, but this feels very similar to the Feb/Mar '15 storms that slammed Kentucky and Southern Ohio and came brutally close to hitting I-70 with snows and didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Don't have a good feeling about the 12z runs. I don't have any support of why, but this feels very similar to the Feb/Mar '15 storms that slammed Kentucky and Southern Ohio and came brutally close to hitting I-70 with snows and didn't. definitely possible. Over the last couple years it seems like the nw trend only happens when we're in the bullseye leading up to the storm. Really amazing aspect of this so far is the unreal steadfast pummeling the models have shown for the MA.... consistency run after run... that would never happen here. I think March '08, our last massive big dog didn't lock in until 48 hrs. The majority of our other biggies were surprises and last minute shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 definitely possible. Over the last couple years it seems like the nw trend only happens when we're in the bullseye leading up to the storm. Really amazing aspect of this so far is the unreal steadfast pummeling the models have shown for the MA.... consistency run after run... that would never happen here. I think March '08, our last massive big dog didn't lock in until 48 hrs. The majority of our other biggies were surprises and last minute shifts. Bolded x1000 lol. NW trend always screws us, never benefits us. I just began following weather models around that March '08 storm and I only vaguely remember tracking the NAM and GFS, so it was within a 2 or 3 day timeframe and there were only QPF differences, and not necessarily track, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Bolded x1000 lol. NW trend always screws us, never benefits us. I just began following weather models around that March '08 storm and I only vaguely remember tracking the NAM and GFS, so it was within a 2 or 3 day timeframe and there were only QPF differences, and not necessarily track, IIRC. I'd rather see a full on HECS that hugs the coast and stays away then have to watch a super tight gradient snow shield pass 50 miles south of us....those are heartbreakers and we just had one late last winter, would suck to have another, but it is definitely one of the top scenarios right now. In the meantime I'll embrace weenie desperation clause 3b : "....we won't know what happens until the energy comes ashore" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If all else fails...which it probably will....there is another opportunity on this one's heels mid next week. Models are all over the place with that one from a solid hit for us to suppressed to a rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Last few frames of the NAM are good but.... it's the LR NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Last few frames of the NAM are good but.... it's the LR NAM we need the nam to show a 980 to toledo at 84 to allow for future adjustment. Here's a nice drawing from the short bus model suite. DGEX 6z. Pretty to look at though. 15-24" across central OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 we need the nam to show a 980 to toledo at 84 to allow for future adjustment. Here's a nice drawing from the short bus model suite. DGEX 6z. Pretty to look at though. 15-24" across central OH We are on the same page! I wouldn't mind seeing the NAM really blow this thing up because it is almost always on the northern edge of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 we need the nam to show a 980 to toledo at 84 to allow for future adjustment. Here's a nice drawing from the short bus model suite. DGEX 6z. Pretty to look at though. 15-24" across central OH Hey don't make fun of the DGEX.... PIT forecast discussion factors it in... .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS STARTED TO GROW WITH REGARD TO THE LANDFALL AND EASTWARD MIGRATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...CENTRAL ROCKIES...MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC BY LATE THIS WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS YET TO EVEN COME ON SHORE YET...AND AS THESE SYSTEMS TRACK OVER THE ROCKIES...THEIR ORGANIZATION STRUCTURE CAN ALTER DRASTICALLY...NOT TO MENTION THAT THE MODELS FAIL TO HANDLE THEIR EMERGENCE FROM THE ROCKIES PARTICULARLY WELL QUITE OFTEN. THAT SAID...ALL EYES ARE ALREADY POINTED AT THIS SYSTEM FOR POTENTIAL MIDDLE ATLANTIC DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A RATHER COMPLEX EVOLUTION IS SET TO UNFOLD GOING INTO THIS WEEK AS THE SYSTEM COMES ON SHORE WHILE A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM STARTS TO AMPLIFY OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS ALLOWS FOR ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LANDFALLING SYSTEM TO STREAK SOUTHEASTWARD VERY QUICKLY AS RIDGING BUILDS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST MID-WEEK AND IT IS FORCED DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE. WHILE THIS WOULD GENERALLY ALLOW FOR A VERY DEEP SYSTEM TO EMERGE EAST OF THE TERRAIN IN TEXAS...A VERY DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA REALLY INHIBITS THE LONGITUDINAL EXTENT OF THE DEVELOPING WEST COASTAL RIDGE. AS A RESULT...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE GENERALLY CLUSTERED IN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM OUT OF THE ROCKIES MID-WEEK WITH STRONG CLUSTERING FOR ITS EMERGENCE IN NEBRASKA NOW EVIDENT AMONGST THE GFS...GEFS...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF. ALL SOLUTIONS TRACK THIS SYSTEM TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...AND MOST FAVOR FAR LESS SOUTHWARD DIGGING AND NORTHWARD EJECTION OF THE SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST. THIS WOULD BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED GIVEN WHERE THE MODELS FAVOR ITS EMERGENCE EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS LIKELY MEANS A BIT MORE NORTHERLY TRACK EASTWARD THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS FAVORED...WHICH CAUSES THE CALCULUS TO SHIFT A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE FORECAST FOR OUR AREA. AS ENERGY MOVES TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND THE NAM/GFS/SREF AND EVENTUAL DGEX SOLUTIONS INDICATING SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO WEST VIRGINIA AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW TURNS THE CORNER AND STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS RUNS AS THESE SOLUTIONS FAVOR 850 MB TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 0C AROUND MORGANTOWN BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD MAKE P-TYPE A CONCERN SHOULD IT OCCUR...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIKELY WARM TOO MUCH TO SUPPORT ALL IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW EAST OF THE TERRAIN SEEMS LIKELY TO PRECLUDE MUCH NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF THE WARMER AIR WEST OF THE TERRAIN...AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION REALLY SUPPRESSES THE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THE TERRAIN AS WELL. FOR THESE REASONS...THE FORECAST STILL FAVORS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE NORTHERN GRADIENT OF LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER STARK AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FEED DRIER AIR INTO THE SYSTEM AND LIKELY ALLOW FOR A RATHER STARK CUT OFF TO THE NORTH. THAT SAID...285-295K LIFT IS IMPRESSIVE AND CENTERED SQUARELY IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WITH A BACK-BUILDING AND INCREASINGLY CURVED UPPER JET STRUCTURE FURTHER SUPPORTING AGEOSTROPHIC COMPONENTS OF ASCENT. IN ESSENCE...THE MODELS SEEM TO BE SCREAMING THAT A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT IS LIKELY TO UNFOLD IN...NEAR...OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA. THE REAL QUANDARY IS WHERE WILL THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY BE. AT THE MOMENT...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FAVORS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH...WITH AMOUNTS FALLING OFF A CLIFF TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS IDEA WAS FEATURED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND SHOULD CURRENT PROJECTIONS CONTINUE TO PERSIST IN FUTURE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE RUNS...WINTER STORM WATCHES MAY WELL BE NEEDED. THAT SAID...RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY NEEDS TO BE MUCH BETTER ESTABLISHED THAN IT CURRENTLY IS FOR THIS TO OCCUR...SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. THOSE WITH TRAVEL INTERESTS NEAR OUR REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN ABREAST OF FORECAST CHANGES. RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM BY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO DRY OUT WITH SUN TO RETURN. TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER...SEEM POISED TO REMAIN RATHER WINTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRIES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I always grimace a little when an AFD mentions the DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hey don't make fun of the DGEX.... PIT forecast discussion factors it in... That takes some guts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 With the Wednesday clipper trending south, I don't think it's good news for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 That takes some guts lol Lol, not to mention the NAM and SREFs at the very end of their range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 06zGFS had biblical amounts of snow lol. 30"+ jackpots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 With the Wednesday clipper trending south, I don't think it's good news for Friday. Confluence over the east appears pretty strong still which argues against a far north track, but there's been a noticeable trend for a stronger western ridge over the last day and potentially a more assertive phase. Could work out well for me with a storm that gets stronger but doesn't cut too far north. I still think I-70 is in the game for accumulating snow but I still think the jackpot is somewhere farther south. I'm becoming a bit less concerned about a complete whiff south for me here but would like to see the Euro come in a bit farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 not gonna see any major changes on the GFS, looking close to locked and loaded for you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Confluence over the east appears pretty strong still which argues against a far north track, but there's been a noticeable trend for a stronger western ridge over the last day and potentially a more assertive phase. Could work out well for me with a storm that gets stronger but doesn't cut too far north. I still think I-70 is in the game for accumulating snow but I still think the jackpot is somewhere farther south. I'm becoming a bit less concerned about a complete whiff south for me here but would like to see the Euro come in a bit farther north. My call for I-70 at this point would be 2"-3". Something, I guess, but pretty heartbreaking considering what would happen just a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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