HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 0Z GFS gets the northwest extent ever further into Ohio and Indiana. Maybe their's hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 00Z GFS says wagons north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I will take it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 00z GFS shows some possible lake effect snow for the western end of Lake Ontario thanks to the circulation from the storm. During the Blizzard of 96 (Jan 6-7), downtown Toronto got a quick 3" of snow (off Lake Ontario) during the overnight hours of Jan 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 00Z GFS says wagons north. gfs could be so much better for us but it does some funky stuff. Brings the low to southeastern KY, closes the ULL over Cincy and then pops/transfers the secondary to Charleston SC and moves it northeast to just off the VA/NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I thought this was going to be a better run than it turned out to be from looking at it in the earlier frames. It should have been better than 18Z, yet it wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Cold sector QPF was pretty meager on the 0x GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 gfs could be so much better for us but it does some funky stuff. Brings the low to southeastern KY, closes the ULL over Cincy and then pops/transfers the secondary to Charleston SC and moves it northeast to just off the VA/NC coast. Yeah I'm not buying some of the later frames. I think it is struggling on where and when to transfer. I'm not saying the trend is way north but I am throwing out most of this run as I think it struggled late... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yeah I'm not buying some of the later frames. I think it is struggling on where and when to transfer. I'm not saying the trend is way north but I am throwing out most of this run as I think it struggled late... actually the ggem is fairly similar. Takes the low to the KY,TN border than transfers to SC and moves it up from there. hits a wall at this point: as a result probably 3 or 4" central, 10" south....roughly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 DT and others are worried the NW trend may continue. Ridge was weaker on the 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Buckeye ,my ggem frames aren't even available for 0z. Where are you getting your data ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 DT and others are worried the NW trend may continue. Ridge was weaker on the 0Z. The ridge out west has actually been slowly improving in terms of being stronger and even a little more west. The issue I see is what's going on in southeast Canada. Need that to weaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Buckeye ,my ggem frames aren't even available for 0z. Where are you getting your data ? tropical tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Models were disorganized tonight. sounds good to me.... toss 'em! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Cold sector QPF was pretty meager on the 0x GFS Clear cut slower trend though and for a more broad trof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yeah I'm not buying some of the later frames. I think it is struggling on where and when to transfer. I'm not saying the trend is way north but I am throwing out most of this run as I think it struggled late...Looks very funky. We'll get the usual transfer too early and screw us lol Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Looks very funky. We'll get the usual transfer too early and screw us lol Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk well we've seen everything change dramatically inside 48 hours with these kind of storms, usually in a bad way us, lol. Maybe this time everything will fall together instead of apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 well we've seen everything change dramatically inside 48 hours with these kind of storms, usually in a bad way us, lol. Maybe this time everything will fall together instead of apart.Yeah I'm not going to get too concerned with one run that is 3.5 days out. Based on the GFS projections, this thing will be somewhat sampled at 0z tmrw night and more fully by 12z Wed. Unless they do the aircraft missions. Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Eastern OH still gets clocked on that GFS run. Euro will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 well we've seen everything change dramatically inside 48 hours with these kind of storms, usually in a bad way us, lol. Maybe this time everything will fall together instead of apart. http://www.lakeeriewx.com/Meteo361/ResearchTopicOne/Images/StormTrackNWSSpringfield.gif One time we didn't get screwed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 http://www.lakeeriewx.com/Meteo361/ResearchTopicOne/Images/StormTrackNWSSpringfield.gif One time we didn't get screwed... We did. A crippling ice storm which wrecked havoc with the power followed by sub-zero temps. I'd rather have plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 We did. A crippling ice storm which wrecked havoc with the power followed by sub-zero temps. I'd rather have plain rain. We got 18" of snow and I remember seeing a report of 40" in Indiana! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 We got 18" of snow and I remember seeing a report of 40" in Indiana! You folks out west did really well with that one. 30 miles east of me it was basically all rain. We were in the wrong place. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Euro back south. The bi-polar syndrome is real. Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Good luck south Ohio https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2016/post-9415-0-71713900-1453185448.jpg Meanwhile WW3 is brewing on the mid Atlantic forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Good luck south Ohio https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2016/post-9415-0-71713900-1453185448.jpg Meanwhile WW3 is brewing on the mid Atlantic forum. Tight gradient on the euro between flurries and a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Clear cut slower trend though and for a more broad trof output_hyfD6i.gif Euro with a similar trend too, but once it closes off on the Euro it moves slowly and absolutely dumps along and south of the Ohio River Edit: Now that I compare the 0z run directly to the 12z run the trough looks sharper, the cut off is just a bit farther south on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Compared to the 12z ensembles, the 0z Euro ensembles are slightly more stout with the western US ridge, lift the confluence over the east north a bit quicker, and have a sharper/perhaps slightly more negatively tilted trough with the storm. Surface low track on the mean appears similar, but the low pressure on the mean stretches to the north so there may be a better cluster that has a farther north track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Compared to the 12z ensembles, the 0z Euro ensembles are slightly more stout with the western US ridge, lift the confluence over the east north a bit quicker, and have a sharper/perhaps slightly more negatively tilted trough with the storm. Surface low track on the mean appears similar, but the low pressure on the mean stretches to the north so there may be a better cluster that has a farther north track. Still time for this to trend better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Still time for this to trend better.The ensemble mean did bump snow a little farther north. If we can get this to phase a tad sooner we'd probably be as good as we can get IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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