Chinook Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 My favorite. I was in Philly at the time. How much did Columbus get in that one? I think it was 9-10" with 4" underneath, with 20-25mph winds. I'll let the regular Columbus posters confirm that-- they may remember something a little different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I remember the superbowl storm fondly, but I think a repeat is somewhat unlikely here barring some decent changes in the overall pattern (we're getting inside of 4 days now so that's quickly becoming more unlikely) Superbowl storm 500mb map ^^ Euro ensemble 500mb map for this storm ^^ There are a few key differences... 1) Ridging out west is a good bit further east for this storm and somewhat less stout than the one leading up to the Superbowl storm. This implies the second shortwave coming down on the backside of the ridge probably won't be as assertive and will probably phase pretty far east. 2) Confluence over the eastern US is currently progged to be a good bit farther south than with the Superbowl storm. This suggests that even if a stronger, earlier phase somehow occurs that there isn't as much room to trend north, as the subsidence ahead of the storm behind the shortwave moving off the east coast will try to keep heights ahead of the storm in check and also try to keep a surface high in place over the east ahead of the storm. 3) The combination of these factors suggests that the trough will stay neutrally tilted until east of the Mississippi which is a big red flag for a strong left turn west of the Apps. With this said, I'm still worried about suppression more than a huge NW trend...but, the fact that the models today all ticked NW a bit and show enough phasing between the two shortwaves for a decent storm is encouraging. Further NW bumps are certainly possible, but a solution that dumps on Chicago and Detroit and rains on I-70 in IN and OH seems extremely unlikely. Things to watch are the clipper that moves through Tuesday night into Wednesday, as it is what will provide the confluence over the Mid Atlantic ahead of the potentially larger storm. A weaker clipper could allow for a farther north track and vise versa...although I think any changes in the pattern over the east would have fairly minor impacts at this point. The other thing to watch is the amplitude of the ridge out west and how strongly the shortwaves dive in to the east. If the ridge trends flatter the storm doesn't happen for the Ohio Valley...if it trends stronger or farther west there would be some more room for an earlier phase and more NW track...although thus far this hasn't happened on any of the models. The models have the 500mb trough closing off before getting to the Appalachians. I've seemed to notice that storms that transfer to the east coast are more likely to perform well in OH when the 500mb closes off not too early but still before getting to the Apps. Examples are VD 2007 and also February 5-6, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
civanac85 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Any idea of snowfall for the northern panhandle of WV? The Weirton area to be exact... Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjk254 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Mark Steinwedel of IWX says don't even bother getting excited about a huge north shift: A STRETCH OF QUIET AND SEASONABLE WX IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS LINGERING CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LIKELY FORCES THE NEXT DIGGING/STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 For those in southern Ontario, there is only one member (P009) from the 12z GFS ensembles that brings measurable snow into the Toronto area. There is one other member that is close, but the rest are well SE. A long shot, but reading description of the 12z Euro EPS in the New England thread, it appears it made sizeable jump NW compared to yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z Euro ensemble members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 For those in southern Ontario, there is only one member (P009) from the 12z GFS ensembles that brings measurable snow into the Toronto area. There is one other member that is close, but the rest are well SE. A long shot, but reading description of the 12z Euro EPS in the New England thread, it appears it made sizeable jump NW compared to yesterday. Bury this one. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This is the sort of snowfall placement similar to the Blizzard of 96, which, by the way, hit Columbus pretty hard. The southern 2/3rds of Ohio had a good snow with that. Columbus had 9". That is still one of my all-time favorites just because it was one of the best busts on the positive side. I remember seeing forecasts of an inch along I-70 the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Bury this one. Next. Agreed. We would need a miracle to even have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Except for the fact that all the models came north. If it was just the euro, I'd probably agree. It seems that at 0z last night a part of the energy for the Wed clipper was sampled and more was at 12z today. So that could explain the temporary shift followed by another shift. I know we've been talking about how that clipper lowers heights enough to stop this sucker for cutting too far NW...So the new data on that certainly could be impacting the eventual track of the Friday low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 The southern 2/3rds of Ohio had a good snow with that. Columbus had 9". That is still one of my all-time favorites just because it was one of the best busts on the positive side. I remember seeing forecasts of an inch along I-70 the day before. That was the biggest busted forecast, (on the good side), I ever recall. It occurred on a Saturday morning. I remember the forecast on the morning of, was for a dusting to an inch. Then they upgraded to a traveler's advisory for 1-3", then they couldn't keep up and finally by afternoon issued a WSW, but by then I think we already had close to 6 or 7". I think the bust occurred because no model had picked up a trowel that set up from the atlantic all the way back through eastern OH and down thru sw OH. I think cincy picked up a foot. The storm was a moisture bomb on the coast and it moved so slowly that the conveyor belt set up and produced all day long for us. The snow was moving northeast to southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Nice to see the improvements from the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 dgex showing that Jan'96 look of throwing a ton of moisture back as the low sits over the ne coast. Hits the eastern half of OH all the way up to Cleveland with around a foot.... Columbus around 10" then tapering further west. Another solution to throw into the pot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 dgex showing that Jan'96 look of throwing a ton of moisture back as the low sits over the ne coast. Hits the eastern half of OH all the way up to Cleveland with around a foot.... Columbus around 10" then tapering further west. Another solution to throw into the pot. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 dgex showing that Jan'96 look of throwing a ton of moisture back as the low sits over the ne coast. Hits the eastern half of OH all the way up to Cleveland with around a foot.... Columbus around 10" then tapering further west. Another solution to throw into the pot. I knew you would come through with my weenie fix today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It looks like the 18Z GFS is trying to throw some more moisture back our way as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I don't think you want anymore south and east trends Ohio members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I don't think you want anymore south and east trends Ohio members. That gives me 8"-9" for MBY. Improvement indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 dgex showing that Jan'96 look of throwing a ton of moisture back as the low sits over the ne coast. Hits the eastern half of OH all the way up to Cleveland with around a foot.... Columbus around 10" then tapering further west. Another solution to throw into the pot. I definitely remember that storm, went skiing at Perfect North down in Cincy that night, by the time we were done a foot had fell and the parking lot was a mess. Finally made out onto the interstate in a '76 Malibu with bald tires and found a snow plow all by itself going up the middle lane on I-75 and we followed that sucker all the way to Dayton going 25MPH! Was after 3 in the morning when we got home and my wife goes "Where the heck have you been?"....!!!! We had 4" already in Bellbrook and got another foot out of that storm for a total at the time of 16" on the groung and I've been in the Dayton area since '86 and that's the deepest storm we've had so far. A buddy of mine that I worked with at the time said his dad lived near Lucasville and he got 40 inches! He opened up the tailgate on his truck and it fluffed in the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Big difference from the 12z run in NE OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 dgex showing that Jan'96 look of throwing a ton of moisture back as the low sits over the ne coast. Hits the eastern half of OH all the way up to Cleveland with around a foot.... Columbus around 10" then tapering further west. Another solution to throw into the pot.I will ride that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayton1996 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I remember the 96 storm very well. Loved it here in Dayton. However, I thought that an upper level system developed over approx Cincy/Dayton. That system fed unexpected heavy snow to our area, while the coastal system buried the east coast. I remember that as a great fluke for us. Was I wrong? 20 years later.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 JB is making reference to January 1966 in his free video today - the winter of 1965-66 was apparently a strong El Nino. Does anyone else think that this weekend's storm could compare to the January 1966 storm? The January 23, 1966 storm clobbered Toronto, while the January 30-31, 1966 storm buried Ottawa and Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 the greatest threat with this is for those areas that are well below in the southeast portion of the forum. Which is why Hoosier's post was a bit perplexing Guess I should clarify...I didn't mean time for the east coast to have one at the expense of everybody in our subforum. I know the southern/eastern part of the subforum has really struggled so far so it would be nice if those areas can cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The # 3 Analog is the Blizzard of 1996. CIPS Analogs. #3 =0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 FWIW the NAM looks to be cutting on a more northern path and positively going negative tilt in middle TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 FWIW the NAM looks to be cutting on a more northern path and positively going negative tilt in middle TN The spread is still there, so don't lose hope yet. But the NAM between 60-84 hours is further NW than actuality 90-95% of the time. It has a VERY strong Amped Bias at the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I actually wouldn't mind a NAMish track on this storm for once. It would benefit us OH folk in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I actually wouldn't mind a NAMish track on this storm for once. It would benefit us OH folk in my opinion The NAM is always the most amped solution at 84 hours. Don't count on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The NAM is always the most amped solution at 84 hours. Don't count on it. For sure the NAM sucks at "long" range. I am more interested in seeing if any of the models try and hook the low back north on a more south to north track instead of a west to east progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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