A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This might be the shortest thread in sub forum history. Sorry guys . Thinking Alek's original call of a southern slider might be nailed. nah, east coast is gonna get drilled sorry dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 at this point i'm hoping for a big east coast storm and some LES Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Agreed. jumping from low probability threat to low probability threat sure is fun i was ready for a snowless el nino but this bitter cold is making me cranky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 nah, east coast is gonna get drilled sorry dude Most likely probably 70% chance of some version of that.... 20% of a slider...and 10% it actually does something the earlier models were showing for us. It's actually very rare for DC to get the pummeling that the models are showing without us scoring something. It does happen, but more often than not if they get a historic dumping we usually get something. ie Jan'96, PD2, Feb'10 etc. Last big one that I can remember that they got pummeled and we got nothing but cirrus, was Feb'06. So maybe it's time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Glass is half full: we are not in the bullseye 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Glass is half full: we are not in the bullseye 4 days out. You're right....it's going to keep moving south! Now, back to your regularly scheduled winter of cold & dry, warm & wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 You're right....it's going to keep moving south! Now, back to your regularly scheduled winter of cold & dry, warm & wet. yea those overnight runs were a kick in the teeth. Although if someone showed me this surface map and told me it's 4.5 days out, any other year my mouth would be watering but this winter just has an exceptional 'stink' on it for our area. Actually....if you think about it, we've been missed by big dogs to the nw and se in the last year. Remember that heartbreaker late last winter that buried KY? We'll get our due.... in April . Here's to a nw trend today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 yea those overnight runs were a kick in the teeth. Although if someone showed me this surface map and told me it's 4.5 days out, any other year my mouth would be watering but this winter just has an exceptional 'stink' on it for our area. Actually....if you think about it, we've been missed by big dogs to the nw and se in the last year. Remember that heartbreaker late last winter that buried KY? We'll get our due.... in April . Here's to a nw trend today I don't ever 4get storms like that that miss us. Just like the song goes, "Snow to the north of us, snow to the south, here I am stuck in the middle with you." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 jumping from low probability threat to low probability threat sure is fun i was ready for a snowless el nino but this bitter cold is making me cranky Yep. Pretty awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 'copter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 'copter I already knew the models would back off on the mild weather with the +PNA still raging and the MJO struggling to get out of Phase 2/3. So that's not surprising. February can't be much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Maybe we"ll get that triple phaser in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GFS looking weaker early on, going to guess it ends up at least a little south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 GFS looking weaker early on, going to guess it ends up at least a little south actually turned out to be a nice shift in the right direction....at least enough to bring the snow shield about 75 miles further nw. Went from flurries to 6" here. Trend? Hiccup? who knows. DC PUMMELED. Last time I saw consistent crushing like that on the models for DC was leading up to VD 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingyball Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z GFS looks a bit better for Columbus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Still that LE signal going strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 ggem appears further north. Primary to southern WV before transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Welcome back says the 12z GFS.. Baby steppin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 ggem actually starts getting Indy in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 uk also moved north and west. It's about where the ggem was last night. It's always been the furthest southeast. Good moves today so far, of course the euro has the final say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 uk also moved north and west. It's about where the ggem was last night. It's always been the furthest southeast. Good moves today so far, of course the euro has the final say.Wanna place bets on what the good doctor is gonna say? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'm patiently waiting on the clipper or whatever you want to call it to get out of the way. And then maybe we see where its really going to go.⌛️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Might be time for the east coast to have one. DC has 0.3", Philly 0.5" and NYC 0.4" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If you look at the appetizer mid-week...the storm Friday...and a follow up mid next week...the noon GFS has a forum jackpot of almost two feet just Southeast of Cincinnati. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016011812/gfs_asnow_us_41.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Might be time for the east coast to have one. DC has 0.3", Philly 0.5" and NYC 0.4" so far. Why, because the Midwest has been getting nailed? Isn't just about everyone still below normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Why, because the Midwest has been getting nailed? Isn't just about everyone still below normal? Exactly...we have not exactly been the snow magnet of the midwest!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Why, because the Midwest has been getting nailed? Isn't just about everyone still below normal? Detroit and Chicago are near-normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Detroit and Chicago are near-normal. the greatest threat with this is for those areas that are well below in the southeast portion of the forum. Which is why Hoosier's post was a bit perplexing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 the greatest threat with this is for those areas that are well below in the southeast portion of the forum. Which is why Hoosier's post was a bit perplexing Meh, not to sound flippant, but I don't care what happens with this one. I think you guys in Ohio still have a shot at getting a decent hit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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