BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Those are outliers, you got to look at the big picture.. If you have time take a look at the past 60 years and you will see we truly average every 6-8 years for a true major synoptic storm. I have and you're wrong sorry. Especially if your using WNY to Rochester region as the basis. It's every 2-3 years on average for a synoptic snowstorm of 1'+. It doesn't have to be KBUF or KROC with totals that we use. I have used Co-Op Observer/Cocarahs to gather my data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I have and you're wrong sorry. Especially if your using WNY to Rochester region as the basis. It's every 2-3 years on average for a synoptic snowstorm of 1'+. It doesn't have to be KBUF or KROC with totals that we use. I have used Co-Op Observer/Cocarahs to gather my data. But you said it's tough to separate lake enhancement from the actual synoptic snow when analyzing the totals. So I don't see how you can be so adamant. I say we get a 1'+ storm here in southern Ontario every 5-7 years, so Ayuud's range is more accurate imo. And plus, the footer storms aren't really what we're (or at least I'm) talking about. It's the bombs that drop widespread 18-24"+ storms that occur along the EC, and to a lesser extent the western Lakes/UMW. Surely you'd agree that the eastern lakes are basically a dead-zone for storms of that magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I have and you're wrong sorry. Especially if your using WNY to Rochester region as the basis. It's every 2-3 years on average for a synoptic snowstorm of 1'+. It doesn't have to be KBUF or KROC with totals that we use. I have used Co-Op Observer/Cocarahs to gather my data. Don't buy it. There's no way this is true. You're definitely including lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 But you said it's tough to separate lake enhancement from the actual synoptic snow when analyzing the totals. So I don't see how you can be so adamant. I say we get a 1'+ storm here in southern Ontario every 5-7 years, so Ayuud's range is more accurate imo. And plus, the footer storms aren't really what we're (or at least I'm) talking about. It's the bombs that drop widespread 18-24"+ storms that occur along the EC, and to a lesser extent the western Lakes/UMW. Surely you'd agree that the eastern lakes are basically a dead-zone for storms of that magnitude. I still stand by what I said. Based on the data I've researched I can stand by it. It's impossible to go through the data and distinguish which synoptic events included lake enhancement and those that don't. Based on my conversation with Buf NWS they stated almost all synoptic systems add some sort of lake enhancement. So how would you even answer that question definitively? I would say Buf and Roch are in much better locations for synoptic than Toronto is due to lake ontarios placement and usual flow in departing storms. If you're talking about the 18-24+" storms I would agree with the timeframe of 4-6+ years. But I think most locations would have a similar timeframe for totals such as those besides maybe Boston? But 1'+ would be pretty frequent, once every 2 years on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I still stand by what I said. Based on the data I've researched I can stand by it. It's impossible to go through the data and distinguish which synoptic events included lake enhancement and those that don't. If you're talking about the 18-24+" storms I would agree with the timeframe of 4-6 years. But I think most locations would have a similar timeframe for totals such as those besides maybe Boston? But 1'+ would be pretty frequent, once every 2 years on average. So you think synoptic storms of 18-24"+ impact WNY every 4-6 years? You're way off. It's not even debatable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 So you think synoptic storms of 18-24"+ impact WNY every 4-6 years? You're way off. It's not even debatable. 2014, 2008. 7th-9th...One of the worst storms of the 2007-2008 winter season occurred on from the 7th through the 9th. This was an extended two part event but totals of one to two feet were common, with some isolated higher amounts. The storm occurred over a weekend so impact to daily activities (school and businesses) was minimal. Numerous automobile accidents were blamed on the slippery conditions and poor visibilities in falling and blowing snow. Other snowfall reports included: 30 inches at Ellicottville; 26 inches at Lockport and Perrysburg; 24 inches at Depew; 23 inches at Getzville; 22 inches at North Tonawanda and Hamlin; 21 inches at Hamburg, Amherst and Niagara Falls; 18 inches at Brockport, Colden, Sinclairville, and Warsaw; 17 inches as Copenhagen, Forestville and South Dayton; 16 inches at Darien and Scottsburg; 15 inches at Colden, Gaines, Pulaski and Basom; 14 inches at Middleport, Lacona, and Webster; 13 inches as Greece, Hannibal and Kennedy; and 12 inches at Cato, Bennetts Bridge and Marion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Are we using KBuf as the basis for this data or WNY and KRoc included? If the later I would agree the timeframe is longer than every 4-6 years. When you include Kroc its much more frequent. Either way I think my point was made, don't want to extend this thread any further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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