Hoosier Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Just have to post this for the sake of amazement. I hope someone gets this much out near DC GFS is actually wetter than the NAM around DC. One thing to consider is that ratios may not be spectacular given the winds. That being said, the Kuchera maps don't seem to be outputting crazy ratios so these crazy looking maps are more qpf driven than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 My folks live north of Myrtle Beach and I make that drive through the western VA and southern WV a few times a year. I can't even imagine some of those mountain highways in those conditions. I imagine a large part of I-77 will be closed. Every hotel room will be booked in Wytheville, VA lol. I just hope that WV doesn't close the entire state so I can still cut through Parkersburg to get to 77 north. Although I'll be driving through the 1 small part of the state that doesn't look to be crippled by Saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 4km NAM already too far north with the surface low and the HRRRx 24hr precip thru 0z tmrw is south of the 4km NAM. Feeling good about my call for Cincy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 48-52" near Dulles given the Kuchera calculations. Never seen map amounts like that outside of Sierra's and Cascade's. Scratch that, I've seen those amounts along the front range in CO and in the Black Hills for one storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 From what I've seen, all the maps being thrown around right now are incredibly flawed. For example, in Baltimore, Maryland on the NAM 4km at forecast hour 60, the Kuchera snow total is a whopping 24 inches. When we knock that ratio down to the standard of 10:1, we still get 20 inches. However, if you look at the raw snow depth map (not total accumulation), you'll see that at the exact same location and time, only 9 inches is forecast. This means that the model is only forecasting a literal accumulation of 9 inches and these massive 2-foot totals are the result only of post-processing. Something to consider as this event begins and especially after it concludes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm looking at Winchester Va. I'm checking hotels now. That would be a good location for big amounts. You even have a bit of elevation there at 800 ft or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That would be a good location for big amounts. You even have a bit of elevation there at 800 ft or so. Can it top 2013 Worcester, MA? I chased it. Had 30" and near 80mph wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I drove through 50 in the winter before.....................doubt that stretch of road is open.From Parkersburg to Bridgeport is no big deal. East of Bridgeport is a whole different story though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 From what I've seen, all the maps being thrown around right now are incredibly flawed. For example, in Baltimore, Maryland on the NAM 4km at forecast hour 60, the Kuchera snow total is a whopping 24 inches. When we knock that ratio down to the standard of 10:1, we still get 20 inches. However, if you look at the raw snow depth map (not total accumulation), you'll see that at the exact same location and time, only 9 inches is forecast. This means that the model is only forecasting a literal accumulation of 9 inches and these massive 2-foot totals are the result only of post-processing. Something to consider as this event begins and especially after it concludes. I wouldn't pay much attention to the depth maps. Obviously there's going to be settling/compacting but if the 6 hour rule is followed, then we should still see some pretty big totals. The big question in my mind is if near or over 2.5" precip is actually going to occur around DC. If it does, this is going to be an incredibly crippling event for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Can it top 2013 Worcester, MA? I chased it. Had 30" and near 80mph wind gusts. That's really something. I remember guys chasing the wintry side of Sandy in the WV mountains. Roof collapses are going to occur without a doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 These was 2013 in Worcester. Be hard to top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayton1996 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Alright Dilly. You look like a badass. The name Dilly needs to be reconsidered :-) Be safe Stormchaser. Looks like some damn good snow. Pictures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GGEM a little tamer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 RGEM staying south too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Alright Dilly. You look like a badass. The name Dilly needs to be reconsidered :-) Be safe Stormchaser. Looks like some damn good snow. Pictures Well I was like 40 lbs lighter then and Dilly is my last name haha. So.. thanks. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Only shining light on this historic storm from us way north is that baaawston gets left out. I get tired of them reeling in monsters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 50"+ from a strictly synoptic storm, outside of high elevation locations, would have to be some kind of record for the conus. I know there were some storms in the OV, like N0v1950 and even Dec.04, where places picked up 40+. That's an interesting question. Here's my take. March 1888- Albany area and Hartford area, 50" according to Kocin/ Uccellini. December 1913- Denver, upslope produced 45", not strictly a high elevation location, so it counts. Superstorm 1993- 49" and 46" in Pennsylvania, West Virginia. February 22-28 1969, Kocin/ Uccellini show 77" at the Maine/New Hampshire border. Blizzard of 96, isolated spot of 49" in the Shenandoah Valley area. March 3-5 1971, 46" in Adirondacks. March 18-21 1958- Kocin/ Uccellini shows one spot near Philadelphia with 50". November 1950 "Great Appalachian Storm", 50" near Elkins WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 the dirty little secret about Feb 2003, (PDII), was that it wasn't a 24 hour total, so it really technically shouldn't be considered a single storm (although it's recorded as such). Here in Westerville we ended up with about 15" but it came in two pieces. The first was Friday night into Saturday morning. Then we had about an 18 hour virga storm, followed by the second piece Sunday evening/night. The Sunday storm was the one that was suppose to miss south. It started to move north on the 18z models Saturday, (24 hours out), and continued the trend. Both pieces gave around 7 or 8". Very good memory because that is exactly how it went down. Ended up with a little more to your ne ( 17" ) but yeah it had that sort of break you mentioned. It took till we were into part 2 before Cleveland finally issued a warning. probably one of the biggest short term busts in the past decade+ as they ( NWS ) had expected that to stay to the south. This and that Christmas storm pulled that last minute jump to the north/nw.. Fun winter.. The thing about that was I wasn't mocking DT, he took it totally the wrong way. It inspired the very first blog he wrote on EUSWX, it was entitled, "Why I hate F*ckeye*. I wish I would have saved that gem. Oh i know.. LOL Oh and that was WWBB not EUSWX.. He had a few gems on there between him and you, him and Ji, him and that meteotrade ( not exactly sure of the spelling? ) , and then ofcourse him and rdale.. lol What winter was that, anyway? 02-03? It may have been even earlier than that. It may have been like 01-'02. That was 02-03.. Where the hell has the time gone? ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I guess what we can take away about the 3'+ amounts is that you either have to be near an ocean, in the LES belts, or in the mountains of the west to get those high totals. Outside of those areas, I think near 2' or maybe a little over is about the limit you would see otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I guess what we can take away about the 3'+ amounts is that you either have to be near an ocean, in the LES belts, or in the mountains of the west to get those high totals. Outside of those areas, I think near 2' or maybe a little over is about the limit you would see otherwise. January 67 sure as heck came close around here with 28.6" here and 31.2" a few miles to the nw of here at Gull Lake. So i think it is very possible especially if it is either a early or late ( March ) season event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Euro 0z finally came north. 1" line straddles I-71, pretty close my forecast from this afternoon Granted, it hasn't snowed yet so i can't claim victory over it just yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yeah that was a healthy bump up to about 0.5" of QPF here on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yeah that was a healthy bump up to about 0.5" of QPF here on the Euro. Yeah, odd that it took so long to come north. (Again, obviously we don't know if that will be the end result or not) It will be interesting to see if the last minute wobble is a correction or misfire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Only shining light on this historic storm from us way north is that baaawston gets left out. I get tired of them reeling in monsters Sure, unless in the unlikely event that the NAM pulls a coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yeah, odd that it took so long to come north. (Again, obviously we don't know if that will be the end result or not) It will be interesting to see if the last minute wobble is a correction or misfire. The base of the trough isn't closed off at 500mb yet and appears a bit north of where the 12z Euro had it. The RAP and HRRR struggle to close the base of the trough off until late Friday and close it off over TN as opposed to north AL/GA...will be interesting to see if that's what's making the difference. The RAP gets Athens on the nose of decent PVA and also a nice mid-level jet/WAA for a few hours Friday afternoon, which could be a few hours of moderate to briefly heavy, fairly high ratio snow. Then we see if we can get a few hours of light to moderate snow in the deform later Friday night. Thinking there's enough to go on to bump up to 3-6" for me...at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 We have a good chance of thunder virga today in S. Ohio! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 i have no idea where all these small OH towns area, which one of you regulars is the furthest south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 i have no idea where all these small OH towns area, which one of you regulars is the furthest south? I'm probably in the "best" spot out of the regular posters in Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm probably in the "best" spot out of the regular posters in Ohio Good luck down your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 cool, good luck radar looks solid enough for the southern tier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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