buckeye Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Surprised you didn't reference PDII. Snow swath on the 12z Euro looks a bit like it. I was going to bring up V.D. 2007. That storm was nailing DC on the models, (much with the same axis as this one), for several model runs. It started creeping north inside of 72 hours and putting us in the game at 48. Then within 24 hours continued moving north and we went from being whiffed to the south on the 120 hour models, to a foot of snow forecasted the night before, to what ended up realizing as one of the biggest sleet storms I ever remember. you remember that one Hoosier ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 I was also thinking with the clipper being right ahead of this main storm that it probably won't turn dramatically north ... it's all part of the needle threading. Without that clipper heights would probably rise more than we'd want and this thing would cut for Columbus before transferring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The combo of the leading clipper and western ridge axis will guide the track of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 it's all part of the needle threading. Without that clipper heights would probably rise more than we'd want and this thing would cut for Columbus before transferring. Very true. The clipper may even lay down 3 inches or so added to the main event ... would be a deep snow pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 18z gfs is south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Yea typical 18z. Clipper needs to get out of the way lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I was going to bring up V.D. 2007. That storm was nailing DC on the models, (much with the same axis as this one), for several model runs. It started creeping north inside of 72 hours and putting us in the game at 48. Then within 24 hours continued moving north and we went from being whiffed to the south on the 120 hour models, to a foot of snow forecasted the night before, to what ended up realizing as one of the biggest sleet storms I ever remember. you remember that one Hoosier ??? Of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 18z gfs is south The H5 look is actually better than 12z. It doesn't mean much but the model did have stronger ULL amplification over the SW. 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingyball Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 So what would be the best case setup for me in Columbus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Of course. How could we forget?! Best storm ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 For those of us further north, the lead clipper kind screws things up by lowering heights out ahead of the main storm. To be fair, I think most who are "further north" never considered this being a serious threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO EXIST BUT CURRENT SOLNS IN BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LOW DEVELOPING INTO THE LOWER MS VLY LATE THURSDAY AND LIFT NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACKS NE INTO TN VLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN ENERGY TRANSLATES TO THE EAST COAST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO HAVE PCPN DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCREASING TO LKLY OVER THE SE BY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW POSSIBLE. AT THIS POINT HAVE ALLOWED A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIX OVER THE SE FRIDAY AFTN BUT OTHERWISE HAVE ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Glad to see Euro finally came on board. Makes me feel better about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It's ok next winter we"ll get our big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It's ok next winter we"ll get our big dog. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46990-201516-autumnwinter-banter-complaint-whining-thread/page-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 18z gfs is south several of the individual gefs were surprisingly pretty far north, even a few were bringing rain into Ohio. When you stop and think that this is 5 - 6 days out you realize that we really won't have a consensus starting to show up for at least a couple more days. I don't think there's been a storm handled decently outside of 3 days....euro included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 several of the individual gefs were surprisingly pretty far north, even a few were bringing rain into Ohio. When you stop and think that this is 5 - 6 days out you realize that we really won't have a consensus starting to show up for at least a couple more days. I don't think there's been a storm handled decently outside of 3 days....euro included. This could be purely anecdotal and weenie of me, but seems like a lot of storms recently have gone north before correcting back south a bit inside 48 hours. Just something to consider... I know you mentioned last night that the classic NW trend is not a given this year. Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 0z GFS is south as well but this is a track ohio guys should like this far out as that slight 50-100 mile bump north is almost always a sure bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 That 0Z GFS is great for Southern Ohio, absolutely decimates Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingyball Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I don't like the Southward Trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 0z GFS is south as well but this is a track ohio guys should like this far out as that slight 50-100 mile bump north is almost always a sure bet.Agreed and Canadian looks very similar as well. Unfortunately the currently modeled track is plausible though given the progressive flow. But being within 100 miles is fine with me. Highly doubt it doesn't move, just don't want it to move south!Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GFS and GGEM continue to hint at some LE for NE Illinois with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GFS and GGEM continue to hint at some LE for NE Illinois with this system. That's not unheard of when a giant storm bombs out on the East Coast. Remember that happening several times here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro is south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I don't dislike the southern trend for MBY but as I said earlier...if this is big whiff for OH it's because the storm slides south. 0z Euro seems to be a bit less amplified with the western ridge and whole system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I don't dislike the southern trend for MBY but as I said earlier...if this is big whiff for OH it's because the storm slides south. 0z Euro seems to be a bit less amplified with the western ridge and whole system.Absolutely. Miss to the south of a big hit seem like the two most likely outcomes. Like I said earlier, still close enough that things could change. Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I would laugh if it backbuilds further west but becomes flat, leading toward a run like the Euro had 48hrs ago. Fitting............the coastal low looks overdone and forced without earlier support in the trough. More like the models trying to save face instead of just letting it go. The Euro drops the pressure on the low to 977mb off the coast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 at this point i'm hoping for a big east coast storm and some LES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I would laugh if it backbuilds further west but becomes flat, leading toward a run like the Euro had 48hrs ago. Fitting............the coastal low looks overdone and forced without earlier support in the trough. More like the models trying to save face instead of just letting it go. and lol i'm sure that's it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 This might be the shortest thread in sub forum history. Sorry guys . Thinking Alek's original call of a southern slider might be nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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