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Jan. 22nd-23rd threat


buckeye

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Thru 42 hrs nam took a very positive step in the right direction and then shat the bed. But don't we always say the nam past 36 hours blows anyways? lol

36 hours is generous!

Our ONLY hope is a Blizzard of '96 redux which is the position we are in now-forecast for very little but more fell in the end.

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Hour 51 on a nam run that just shifted north....   not a bad place to be.   This is all about reclaiming my 4" call...

Agreed.

 

I was telling a friend that this isn't about us getting into the big snows, it's about us getting just a few inches. The miracle would be the heavy stuff continues to shift north. lol

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NAM only gives us an inch or two. The trend is what's important. Baby steps.

Come on PD2 lol. I was 18 then. I remember local mets calling for 2-4" the night before. I'm not going to get sucked in, but if GFS comes further north, then maybe we are seeing a new trend. Won't take much to get us in good snows.

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all I'm taking away from the nam and rgem is a north trend is potentially on the table. That door could slam when the rest of the models come out too.

To me it's the combo of the EC ensemble mean which was much further NW than the op, the SREF mean,and the new RGEM that give me some hope.

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Interesting trend here...once the clipper passed through today, every model run since has trended northwest. First the SREF, then the NAM, and now the RGEM. If the GFS and Euro follow, I wouldn't be surprised to see a shift even farther. Typical scenario where the solution of a secondary system is never certain until the first system is in the books.

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