A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 the lack of northern stream makes this such an odd ball system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 the lack of northern stream makes this such an odd ball system Nino'ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 You just have to kinda laugh at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 You just have to kinda laugh at this point... When I look at that it reminds me of the model output for PDII about 48 hrs out. That was how far the snow shield was from us and then the dramatic shifts north over about 3 or 4 model runs. Of course that was 13 years ago.... I'm assuming the models have improved just a tad since then . I don't think we'll ever see those kind of last minute crazy shifts anymore.... which kind of makes all of this lose some of it's fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 When I look at that it reminds me of the model output for PDII about 48 hrs out. That was how far the snow shield was from us and then the dramatic shifts north over about 3 or 4 model runs. Of course that was 13 years ago.... I'm assuming the models have improved just a tad since then . I don't think we'll ever see those kind of last minute crazy shifts anymore.... which kind of makes all of this lose some of it's fun. The only thing left for me to hang my hat on was the fact that the Euro Ens mean looked like the GFS and gave us about 3-5". I'd take it and run, but unfortunately I think we see pretty much what we're seeing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 When I look at that it reminds me of the model output for PDII about 48 hrs out. That was how far the snow shield was from us and then the dramatic shifts north over about 3 or 4 model runs. Of course that was 13 years ago.... I'm assuming the models have improved just a tad since then . I don't think we'll ever see those kind of last minute crazy shifts anymore.... which kind of makes all of this lose some of it's fun. Never say never. That's what makes weather fun Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingyball Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm going to see how the 18z RGEM looks, it nailed a few storms for me in North Texas last year, 12z didn't look too awful through the 48 hours might have given me a trace to an inch on that run barring no early transfers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wow....we get screwed when in the bulls eye 2-4 days out.....and we get screwed on this one, yet the bulls eye hasn't budged for the MD/DE/VA folks. I guess it is that stupid little boy out in the eastern pacific.... And I agree with you Buckeye--- where have the days gone where you could count on those last minute surprises?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I love your optimism guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I don't think optimism is the right word. It's more an acknowledgement that miracles do happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Why am i still following this storm????? Oh yeah i remember>>>>>>ADDICTION!! Thinking it may turn just enought to squeak out a few inches!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Geos going to end up with more than Buckeye? Doesn't show it on that map, but TOL and points southeast could also see more than buckeye. I could imagine streamers down to west central OH, probably into the Friday night timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Geos going to end up with more than Buckeye? Looks like a dry layer is impeding the LES from developing too far. Probably end up being clouds with scattered lights snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looks like a dry layer is impeding the LES from developing too far. Probably end up being clouds with scattered lights snow showers. LOT has been all over it, lots working against LES, primarily the lack of a proper northern stream phase 18z another step in the wrong direction for historical blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 LOT has been all over it, lots working against LES, primarily the lack of a proper northern stream phase 18z another step in the wrong direction for historical blizzard Sounds like more nickeling and diming. THE GREATEST LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE DURG THEDAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY WHEN INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE ARND 5KFT AND SFC TO 850MB DELTA-T SHOULD BE ARND 13C UNDER NELY WINDS. WHILE THE LONGER TERM GUIDANCE MAY LACK THE RESOLUTION OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...THE GFS/ECMWF ALSO INDICATE A CONVERGENCE BAND OVER THE SWRN PORTION OF LAKE MICHIGAN...FURTHER AIDING CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATION. WEAK CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT A LITTLE NORTH INTO SERN WISCONSIN. ALSO...LOW LEVEL INVERSION HEIGHTS AND INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...PER LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL TO END BY SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH A PROGRESSIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. Well the Blizzard area looks to be shrinking. NAM is sure up there with totals. 36" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This storms is going to shut down most of KY as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustincollins Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I live in the Louisville, KY suburbs and have been lurking since yesterday. Anyways, our local meteorologists mentioned a possibility and I'm wondering you alls thoughts as it would surely impact you. If the snow from today melts in Middle TN wouldn't that shift the storm north? Our meteorologist noted the historical tendency of storms such as this to take a track just south of the snow pack. What are your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I live in the Louisville, KY suburbs and have been lurking since yesterday. Anyways, our local meteorologists mentioned a possibility and I'm wondering you alls thoughts as it would surely impact you. If the snow from today melts in Middle TN wouldn't that shift the storm north? Our meteorologist noted the historical tendency of storms such as this to take a track just south of the snow pack. What are your thoughts? I think there's a pretty good possibility that the snow shield spreads further north than modeled. That happens quite often. Wish for a 12z GGEM solution then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustincollins Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think there's a pretty good possibility that the snow shield spreads further north than modeled. That happens quite often. Wish for a 12z GGEM solution then. Yeah I think it isn't going to have as sharp of a gradient but it seems the NWS and the Met are both pretty confident in the low tracking north. NWS here is upping our totals despite the majority of the models now having us in the 0-3 inch area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustincollins Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm really liking that jog back North with the 21z SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingyball Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Can we lock in that SREF and call it a day? A man can dream right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 SREF mean for Columbus is 5.34". Carry on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 SREF 07 takes it up into Kentucky.......haha!!!! Hey, it could happen!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustincollins Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Can we lock in that SREF and call it a day? A man can dream right? Let me see the NAM first, it may have higher numbers I like more, we can always go back to the SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingyball Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 There's one half of the SREF that has insane snow totals for Columbus (9 inch mean) and there's another half that is much lower with (.75 inch mean) I would rather see the lower one be higher and the higher one be lower but I won't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustincollins Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This NAM needs to load quicker! It looks slightly north but I've only got through 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This NAM needs to load quicker! It looks slightly north but I've only got through 21 You have those weenie goggles on don't you? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't think optimism is the right word. It's more an acknowledgement that miracles do happen! The SREF heard your call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustincollins Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I thought the NAM was going very amazing places but that is one weird model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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