buckeye Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hey, it happened in '96. too early for the north trend now I'm getting worried j/k No matter what the models show tonight, the 800lb gorilla in the room is still going to be that 12z euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I suspect everything else will shift north too 0z...question is if it's enough to do anything for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 One subtle difference I've noticed with the nam and the gfs is the western ridge, trough, and storm development is a tad west. At first I thought it was just slower. The gfs tucks that low in closer to the coast too. Other than that, gfs looks fairly similar to the past couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GFS is yet another buzz kill Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 gfs tucks that low in around the Delmarva and hangs it there. Looks like DC will have a changeover and W. PA gets clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 GFS is yet another buzz kill Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk it's all noise until the good doctor either holds or flips Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 gfs tucks that low in around the Delmarva and hangs it there. Looks like DC will have a changeover and W. PA gets clobbered. Love that conveyer belt look. Very 96'esque. Still, we end up screwed, but there's still potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 For those of you who remember the good ole' days, let's pull for the EE rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The northern gradient was sharper on the GFS but it did nudge my QPF up a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Love that conveyer belt look. Very 96'esque. Still, we end up screwed, but there's still potential. that's something that won't be modeled well either.... also very 96'esque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That was definitely a DC/N VA jackpot run. wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I still think we are in the 3"-6" range here. The models will flip flop with the north west extent of the precip until close to the event. If that conveyor belt sets up, who knows how far west it will go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 it's all noise until the good doctor either holds or flips You staying up for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 You staying up for it? just peaked at the ggem and it's a whiff for us. Only a matter of time for the americans to cave. So a good nights sleep tonight well not a total OH whiff, looks like southeast OH might do ok, but clearly southeast of previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 And the Canadian is a kick to the nuts. Bedtime! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So a good nights sleep tonight Probably for the best then. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 And the Canadian is a kick to the nuts. Bedtime! the ggem took a solid step towards the 12z euro. It takes the primary n. GA and then due east off the SC coast and then up the coast, which is what saves places further north. The euro sent it out to sea. actually not a total whiff....looks like 1-2" for cmh . OHweather looks to be around the 6" mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GFS and Canadian correcting south, NAM is out to lunch. Don't even need to see the Euro. Another miss for Central Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 A few more GFS ensembles were farther north this run. I think the southern bleeding has hopefully stopped, pending the Euro. 18z GEFS members: 0z GEFS members: Annnd we wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 A few more GFS ensembles were farther north this run. I think the southern bleeding has hopefully stopped, pending the Euro. 18z GEFS members: 0z GEFS members: Annnd we wait You would pull me back in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 You would pull me back in! There was still a decent cluster farther north on the 12z Euro ensemble. Trends were concerning today but I did say I'd give it another run or so before punting "the entire winter" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 There was still a decent cluster farther north on the 12z Euro ensemble. Trends were concerning today but I did say I'd give it another run or so before punting "the entire winter" Agreed. If there are no improvements on the euro tonight, stick a fork in it for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 South south and away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Believe it or not, the 0z Euro edged north a little 0z snow: Compared to 12z: If that UL over KS was a bit farther west and heights a bit higher farther east, I suspect the UL would've tracked farther north. That's a small change that's not unattainable. Will be curious to see if the 0z ensembles still have a considerable number of members NW of the op or not. Not sure if I'll see that tonight or in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Baby steps. Even if it misses us, that is one heck of a storm to track for the MA. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Believe it or not, the 0z Euro edged north a little 0z snow: Compared to 12z: If that UL over KS was a bit farther west and heights a bit higher farther east, I suspect the UL would've tracked farther north. That's a small change that's not unattainable. Will be curious to see if the 0z ensembles still have a considerable number of members NW of the op or not. Not sure if I'll see that tonight or in the morning. Funny, it edged south for Cincy LOL Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 06Z NAM was a wiff for us. WPC still throws us a bone though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 06Z NAM was a wiff for us. WPC still throws us a bone though. What are they seeing??? Are they including the totals from today?? Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What are they seeing??? Are they including the totals from today?? Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk I don't know. They seem to have discounted the foreign models. ILN is giving Newark 2"-4". Pretty generous, IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I don't know. They seem to have discounted the foreign models. ILN is giving Newark 2"-4". Pretty generous, IMHO. Even the American ones are coming around. Heck the 6z NAM!Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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