osubrett2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 In my head for a few days now, this storm reminded me of the Feb 5th, 2010 storm. There's probably too much to overcome to get as close to that storm as we can, but Weatherbell thinks the same thing...http://www.weatherbell.com/feb-2010-stormWith that storm, models did fairly well with a 6-8" forecast for CMH. But for my parents up in Youngstown, models did horribly. Initially they were under a WWA for 3-6" of snow 24 hours out. But as close as 12 hours prior, models bumped up the totals to 6-8" with lollipop 10" snows. They were upgraded to a Warning as the snow was starting. As the storm kept moving, short range models bumped them up to 12-14". When it was all over, they actually received 16" of snow, when only 24 hours prior, they were forecasted for 3-6". I actually drove up the next day, bad choice in hindsight as the roads were still awful, and visually confirmed it. Quite the positive trend.Not saying we'll get a repeat, and the Euro definitely threw a huge wrench into the mix, but if this Euro run is just a hiccup, it might play out interestingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 West shore Lake Michigan folks, how are we feeling about the LE? Models still hung on a band developing. looks like trash and izzi wasn't impressed mood dust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 ensembles will be interesting for you guys, still a couple more model cycles before i'd throw in the towel I've seen the euro do wacky things around the 72 hour mark before, (mostly with coastal situations), but I would say this is a huge red flag and although it may adjust further north in the next model runs, I'd say an 80% shot it's over for Central OH, other than cirrus. I think OHweather still has a good shot of accum though. All that said, I won't unplug the coffee maker and switch off the lights in here just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I've seen the euro do wacky things around the 72 hour mark before, (mostly with coastal situations), but I would say this is a huge red flag and although it may adjust further north in the next model runs, I'd say an 80% shot it's over for Central OH, other than cirrus. I think OHweather still has a good shot of accum though. All that said, I won't unplug the coffee maker and switch off the lights in here just yet. "It's over Johnny." If we are fortunate enough to have something to track again within 5 days of the models, let me start the storm thread this time! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I've seen the euro do wacky things around the 72 hour mark before, (mostly with coastal situations), but I would say this is a huge red flag and although it may adjust further north in the next model runs, I'd say an 80% shot it's over for Central OH, other than cirrus. I think OHweather still has a good shot of accum though. All that said, I won't unplug the coffee maker and switch off the lights in here just yet. Agreed. If we see snow, it'll be an inch or 2. Doubtful the 5-6" amounts on the GFS/GGEM will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm starting to worry about this system going too far south for me. It appears there will be a sharp cutoff on totals. I really don't want to be riding on that fine line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Congrats Bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Congrats Raleigh? wouldn't that be classic strong nino anyways? Tennessee Valley - Southern Apps dumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 60 hrs from the start of the event.....these wobbling fluctuations are all part of the "game". Plenty of time, plenty of time. Keep in mind, we are still not within the window of when you want to be in the bulls eye. The folks in C'bus are concerned they are too far north and us Cincy folks are concerned we're too far west. Given the boring nature of this winter; I'll take something to track over nothing at all. Plenty of time. Enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 60 hrs from the start of the event.....these wobbling fluctuations are all part of the "game". Plenty of time, plenty of time. Keep in mind, we are still not within the window of when you want to be in the bulls eye. The folks in C'bus are concerned they are too far north and us Cincy folks are concerned we're too far west. Given the boring nature of this winter; I'll take something to track over nothing at all. Plenty of time. Enjoy it. I'd rather have nothing to track, honestly. Big teases in a mediocre to terrible winter are the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'd rather have nothing to track, honestly. Big teases in a mediocre to terrible winter are the worst. I couldn't agree more! That is why I will not be teased any more and am giving up and moving on from this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'd rather have nothing to track, honestly. Big teases in a mediocre to terrible winter are the worst. agree, this tracking is like crack to me. I hate these tease storms that put you on the edge for days and waffle you in and out of the game. I hope all the models either trend this out of our range or dramatically shift north in the next couple runs. Really feel for the weenies in southern PA / MD.... that would suck beyond belief it this crashes like the euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 I couldn't agree more! That is why I will not be teased any more and am giving up and moving on from this one. I'll send you a pm around 1am when the euro initializes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 agree, this tracking is like crack to me. I hate these tease storms that put you on the edge for days and waffle you in and out of the game. I hope all the models either trend this out of our range or dramatically shift north in the next couple runs. Really feel for the weenies in southern PA / MD.... that would suck beyond belief it this crashes like the euro shows. Yep, I was posting on the Philadelphia part of the forum last night because someone said that Philly was "at least" guaranteed 2 feet, maybe more. What I know of Philadelphia is you're not guaranteed a damn thing. I'll never forget the March 2001 storm there where we were "guaranteed" 2 feet of snow. We didn't get 2 flakes. THAT was utter heartbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingyball Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Unfortunately being from North Texas I know what it's like to be teased but end up with nothing then see that 1ft of snow fell North of the Red River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Totally understand the nail biting frustration being expressed. I suppose I have become somewhat apathetic given the dozens of systems over the years that look great only to fish hook to the NW. The worst is when I am stuck in a cold rain @ 34 degrees in the SE side of Cincy and the folks on the NW side of town are getting pounded with snow. Regardess, I have faith that this won't be a total miss...how much is yet to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yep, I was posting on the Philadelphia part of the forum last night because someone said that Philly was "at least" guaranteed 2 feet, maybe more. What I know of Philadelphia is you're not guaranteed a damn thing. I'll never forget the March 2001 storm there where we were "guaranteed" 2 feet of snow. We didn't get 2 flakes. THAT was utter heartbreak. The bust that drove Bolaris out of town. The news station he worked for starting running a tag line on TV shows at the bottom of the screen like 3 days out talking about an apocalyptic snow storm that was coming. That was unreal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'll send you a pm around 1am when the euro initializes.... I know you will not be waiting for that one tonight, but I expect to hear from you early tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Here's some comfort food for the southern OH crowd. When you actually compare the 12z - left, with the 00z-right, the south shift is not as crazy as it originally seems. That's why I think Cincy to Athens posters are still in decent shape for a correction north of the 12z euro. The southern shift hype is mostly centered around where the redevelopment on the coast occurs. What happens to the Ohio valley depends on how much latitude the precip can reach once the storm pulls out of the lower plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Here's some comfort food for the southern OH crowd. When you actually compare the 12z - left, with the 00z-right, the south shift is not as crazy as it originally seems. That's why I think Cincy to Athens posters are still in decent shape for a correction north of the 12z euro. The southern shift hype is mostly centered around where the redevelopment on the coast occurs. What happens to the Ohio valley depends on how much latitude the precip can reach once the storm pulls out of the lower plains. You would think it should get a long ways north with that borderline steroidal STJ in this El Nino winter. But.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 You know our winter sucks when we're all crabin' about a Nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM going to take a step weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18z NAM basically holds its ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 this storm is going to be so painful for me. the two big ones last year and now probably this one have missed me to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 West shore Lake Michigan folks, how are we feeling about the LE? Models still hung on a band developing. LOT with delta T concerns GUIDANCE HAS A SFC RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENN VALLEY. THE BY-PRODUCT OF THIS WILL BE A STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE CHICAGO METRO/NORTHEAST IL AREAS DURING THE DAY FRI. THE CHALLENGE MAY END UP BEING THAT THE LAKE SFC TO TEMPS ALOFT MAY NOT BE LARGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER LAKE BANDING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 LOT with delta T concerns GUIDANCE HAS A SFC RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENN VALLEY. THE BY-PRODUCT OF THIS WILL BE A STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE CHICAGO METRO/NORTHEAST IL AREAS DURING THE DAY FRI. THE CHALLENGE MAY END UP BEING THAT THE LAKE SFC TO TEMPS ALOFT MAY NOT BE LARGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER LAKE BANDING. The one time set-up is decent during a very warm first half of winter, the past week has been cold enough to put down some ice on the lake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 upper level trough coming into tonight is gonna push this way south. GFS/GGEM are a bunch of dummies. Euro was stupid for following them. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 ILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH416 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AWINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE IMPETUS FOR WHATWILL DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EITHER OVER THE TNVLY OR THE DEEP SOUTH IS STILL OFF THE WEST COAST ATTM...SO CAUTIONMUST BE USED IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE OSCILLATIONS IN THE POSITIONAND TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. MODELS TEND TO HAVE ISSUESWITH THE CLOSING OFF OF SUCH SYSTEMS...AND GIVEN THAT THE ENERGY ISSTILL OFF THE WEST COAST...THERE WILL BE TIME FOR OSCILLATIONS TOCONTINUE UNTIL PERHAPS 12Z WEDNESDAY WHEN THE ENERGY WILL BE FULLYSAMPLED.THAT BEING SAID...OF THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM THE 01.19.12ZRUN...THE ECMWF HAS TAKEN A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS THE DEEPSOUTH VERSUS THE OTHER MODELS (NAM...GFS...AND CMC). AS TO NOT JUMPON THE PURE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH WOULD BRING A PCPN SHIELD/MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS ONLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE OHIO RIVER...HAVETAKEN A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND THE PREVIOUS 00Z ECMWF WHICH KEEPSSOME CONTINUITY TO THE GOING FORECAST AND ALLOWS FOR SOME POTENTIALFOR A MORE NORTHERN TRACK TO BE A POSSIBLE SOLUTION. THUS...THECURRENT FORECAST WILL ALLOW PCPN SHIELD/MID LVL DEFORMATION AXISPUSH NORTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING IT TOPIVOT AS FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST AS THE I-71 CORRIDOR...AND THEN ALLOWIT TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COASTAL LOW/ENERGYTRANSFER TAKES PLACE. BASED ON THIS SCENARIO...PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ASSNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG ANDSOUTHEAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR AND PARTICULARY ALONG AND SOUTH OFTHE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THUS...AT THIS JUNCTURE...4 OR MORE INCHES OFSNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR WITH 6 ORMORE INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. AGAIN...ATRACK FARTHER SOUTH WOULD ONLY IMPACT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OFTHE OHIO RIVER...AND A TRACK FARTHER NORTH WOULD PUSH THE THREATTOWARD THE I-71 CORRIDOR. AS THE COASTAL LOW TAKES SHAPE AND MOVESNEAR AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON ANDNIGHT...PCPN WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSUREBUILDS BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE TAKENBLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF. SOMEADJUSTMENTS MAY HAVE TO BE MADE TO CURRENT VALUES DEPENDING ON WHEREAND THE AMOUNT OF SNOW COVER WHICH MAY FALL...WHICH WILL HAVE ANALBEDO EFFECT/RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 lol That is one hell of a post, right up there with "NAO and PNA are just letters". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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