SnowyCane22 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 As a novice in model downtime....living here in Toms River I fully expect to changeover...but is there any hope for major amounts this way? And if so, what does not just my area, but the coast need to have happen to cash in? If even possible..thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Isn't there less of a history of Miller A's missing or busting when compared to the more complicated handoff/ phasing of a Miller B? Also in my experience, Miller A storms often verify further north than initially modeled say 4-5 days out. I know 96 did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 No worries down there in TR! Mean totals of 16" include you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 As a novice in model downtime....living here in Toms River I fully expect to changeover...but is there any hope for major amounts this way? And if so, what does not just my area, but the coast need to have happen to cash in? If even possible..thanks!! For coastal New Jersey to cash in and limit mixing, the low would have to push further south and eastward rather then further north. The further north the system lays, the further north that rain/sleet line will creep. This is extremely dependent on the high to the north dictating how aggressively north it'll be able to track before going OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowyCane22 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 For coastal New Jersey to cash in and limit mixing, the low would have to push further south and eastward rather then further north. The further north the system lays, the further north that rain/sleet line will creep. This is extremely dependent on the high to the north dictating how aggressively north it'll be able to track before going OTS Thank you! I'm hoping everyone from DC to even Boston can cash in big!!! Let's build a huge snowpack and make it start looking like winter around here for awhile! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 You guys know how big of a weenie I am, but I am actually considering storm chasing this one, because I honesty think most of the coastal plain is gonna be screwed here. I could see Philly getting 4-8" of WAA snows, then over to sleet/rain dry slot while the C PA guys are enjoying 30-40" of snow. Honestly the 12z EURO run worried me so much that this thing could end up closing off and stalling over the Apps. I want to see an East trend on the data 2nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 You guys know how big of a weenie I am, but I am actually considering storm chasing this one, because I honesty think most of the coastal plain is gonna be screwed here. I could see Philly getting 4-8" of WAA snows, then over to sleet/rain dry slot while the C PA guys are enjoying 30-40" of snow. Honestly the 12z EURO run worried me so much that this thing could end up closing off and stalling over the Apps. I want to see an East trend on the data 2nite. Yeah, I'm hoping the storm ends up more southeast. The rain comes in a bit too far for my liking. I thought maybe I'd end up spared since I'm a bit more inland but the northwest trend proved me wrong. I see people say stop worrying about the specifics (snow totals) and more on the track, but it's a little hard to not worry. Oh well, I'd rather see this ~4-5 days out rather than a day or so before the storm. We still have time, though it doesn't seem like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 You've done it before... To further destinations!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 You guys know how big of a weenie I am, but I am actually considering storm chasing this one, because I honesty think most of the coastal plain is gonna be screwed here. I could see Philly getting 4-8" of WAA snows, then over to sleet/rain dry slot while the C PA guys are enjoying 30-40" of snow. Honestly the 12z EURO run worried me so much that this thing could end up closing off and stalling over the Apps. I want to see an East trend on the data 2nite. I honestly think you're overreacting over nothing and you should wait until Wednesday at the very earliest. And I don't think CPA is going to end up with 30-40". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yeah, I'm hoping the storm ends up more southeast. The rain comes in a bit too far for my liking. I thought maybe I'd end up spared since I'm a bit more inland but the northwest trend proved me wrong. I see people say stop worrying about the specifics (snow totals) and more on the track, but you really can't not worry. Oh well, I'd rather see this ~4-5 days out rather than a day or so before the storm. You don't have a crystal ball, nothing has proven you wrong about anything. You should listen to what other people say and stop worrying about specifics this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 You guys know how big of a weenie I am, but I am actually considering storm chasing this one, because I honesty think most of the coastal plain is gonna be screwed here. I could see Philly getting 4-8" of WAA snows, then over to sleet/rain dry slot while the C PA guys are enjoying 30-40" of snow. Honestly the 12z EURO run worried me so much that this thing could end up closing off and stalling over the Apps. I want to see an East trend on the data 2nite. I am not nearly as worried as you are about a dryslot. If Philly does flip to rain, it would be only briefly, and the flip back to snow would likely have the best storm dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I honestly think you're overreacting over nothing and you should wait until Wednesday at the very earliest. And I don't think CPA is going to end up with 30-40". I dont think he is overreacting at all temps north to south right at the coast 43 to 50 degree waters north to south 70 miles out 65 to 75 degree waters it is a valid concern for the coast to 60 miles inland with models depicting 80knt winds off the warm Atlantic. This storm needs to be off the coast 40-60 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Anyone south and east of the fall line isn't overreacting in a setup like this. Honestly, with such a potent low I wouldn't be surprised if I heard pingers even on my windows at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 You guys know how big of a weenie I am, but I am actually considering storm chasing this one, because I honesty think most of the coastal plain is gonna be screwed here. I could see Philly getting 4-8" of WAA snows, then over to sleet/rain dry slot while the C PA guys are enjoying 30-40" of snow. Honestly the 12z EURO run worried me so much that this thing could end up closing off and stalling over the Apps. I want to see an East trend on the data 2nite. What about 35 miles NW of the city? I'm feeling pretty good right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 What about 35 miles NW of the city? I'm feeling pretty good right now You got me thinking about "crow flies" distances... According to this site, your about 23 miles NW of Billy Penn! http://tjpeiffer.com/crowflies.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 You got me thinking about "crow flies" distances... According to this site, your about 23 miles NW of Billy Penn! http://tjpeiffer.com/crowflies.html well it takes me 35 minutes to drive there so I just estimated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 well it takes me 35 minutes to drive there so I just estimatedWasn't questioning your accuracy...I just got to thinking about how far I am (17 miles) and a pretty cool website for others to use!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 What about 35 miles NW of the city? I'm feeling pretty good right now I lived in the Limerick/Royersford area (7-10 miles further W up Rt 422) and always got screwed by the R/S line. Pretty much same as Philly....just delayed by an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 0z GFS the back to reality run with big changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Really wish Glenn still did the 11pm weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 But the changes still lead to big snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 But the changes still lead to big snow Yeah seems to be a bigger front end thump with a faster occlusion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 RedSky we all get raked dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 0z GFS the back to reality run with big changes back to reality? it shows 2 plus feet of snow for most of the area. there will be some fluctuations with the track of the low, r/s line, etc. between model runs. It is an absolute bomb still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Really wish Glenn still did the 11pm weather...THIS^^^^^^^I COULD NOT agree with you MORE!!!!! I commented on this a few weeks ago.... Sheena's analysis is really poor... spends most of her time talking about temperatures and "feels like"!!! Glenn was on at 11 last night and offers so much more than any other Philly TV met (analysis wise)... Glenn/Sheena, please pay heed if you're reading this!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 snj has much more mixing issues on this run but it looks like but the rest of the area gets absolutely smacked. even snj still gets a good thump and back to snow in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 THIS^^^^^^^ I COULD NOT agree with you MORE!!!!! I commented on this a few weeks ago.... Sheena's analysis is really poor... spends most of her time talking about temperatures and "feels like"!!! Glenn was on at 11 last night and offers so much more than any other Philly TV met (analysis wise)... Glenn/Sheena, please pay heed if you're reading this!! Lol...she's doing it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Lol...she's doing it right now. I don't know what to say other then Sheena just punted away the storm she didn't even want to talk about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 CMC another big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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