hazwoper Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Temper your expectations people. Expect a 4-8" snowfall and if we get more, savor every second. The numbers that the numerical models are spitting out are insane and quite frankly, unlikely to verify to that extreme (42"+?...seriously?). I expect a decent storm but also expect snowfall totals on the models to begin getting more realistic at 12z Wednesday after the energy comes onshore and is better sampled. Im a snow weenie among snow weenies and want 3-4 feet more than anyone, but realistically speaking, those kinds of totals are unlikely...so rare it would take perfect perfect perfect conditions. If we are within 12 hours and models still are extreme, then game on. But until then...its all rainbows and unicorns. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Nowhere in this sub forum is any model spitting out 3'-4' 4"-8" is a little silly to "expect". Models Have been showing 1'+ here for some time. Expect 6-12/8-14" is more like it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Nowhere in this sub forum is any model spitting out 3'-4' 4"-8" is a little silly to "expect". Models Have been showing 1'+ here for some time. Expect 6-12/8-14" is more like it at this point. 18z GFS has over 40" using a 12:1 - 15:1 ratio in parts of Southeast PA.And until the energy is onshore on Wednesday AM, I am keeping my expectations very low and realistic regardless what guidance shows. You do as you please sir. And just for the record, 4-8" is NOT my forecast. I will put out my numbers Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Wunderground....looks like 13-20". Complete BS right now but? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ralph I think you are underestimating this big time saying 6-12. Once this low closes off it is going to absolutely bomb, and there is plenty of moisture to work with. I think 10-18 is a better first guess for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Nowhere in this sub forum is any model spitting out 3'-4' 4"-8" is a little silly to "expect". Models Have been showing 1'+ here for some time. Expect 6-12/8-14" is more like it at this point. Yes I posted on my facebook page I am expecting 9-14" if I had to make a call and that was this morning at 10am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Should lower bucks Co expect a mix? Unless it moves a bit east right? I think this event will be a wait and see, and be patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Not only that Ralph, but could you imagine 40" with winds? This area would be absolutely crippled. People would die. It wouldn't be pretty Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ralph I think you are underestimating this big time saying 6-12. Once this low closes off it is going to absolutely bomb, and there is plenty of moisture to work with. I think 10-18 is a better first guess for sureNope, I realize the potential we are dealing with. I also realize that we are still 4 days away. What if this tracks a little farther north and west of the 18z gfs? And occludes early? And we then have to deal with a mix to dry slotting? There will be alot of heartbroken folks here. Again, I am merely tempering my own expectations and downplaying the super extreme solutions. I am in no way writing anything off the table. Lets wait until Wednesday when the energy is onshore and we really have a solid handle on how this may all play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Should lower bucks Co expect a mix? Unless it moves a bit east right? I think this event will be a wait and see, and be patient. The last map I saw it had the r/s line parallel with I-95. If this storm lives up to the potential the models are showing, it'll be worth the mixing. I hope the wind is there... always a let down when the winds aren't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I was away all weekend skiing and didn't go on the Internet really at all because I didn't have great service up there. quite frankly I was shocked to see a 7 page thread in this subforum when I got home tonight. Good to see everyone back! I've really just skimmed through everything quickly but seems to be pretty incredible model consistency this far out and the h5 set up is classic for a HECS from what I've seen. The fact most HECS are modeled well in advanc(Boxing Day and jan 2000 are the two notable exceptions) gives me plenty of optimism this far out for a significant storm. Seems to be a pretty classic El Niño Miller A. We have a ways to go still but honestly a 4-8" storm would pretty disappointing with this kind of set up. Not expecting 40 inches but I think widespread 1-2 ft is a pretty reasonable expectation at this point as I don't see many negatives just glancing at the models, I suppose maybe suppression is on the table? Still I would happily take 4-8 inches. Is there any model though showing a suppressed solution right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Nope, I realize the potential we are dealing with. I also realize that we are still 4 days away. What if this tracks a little farther north and west of the 18z gfs? And occludes early? And we then have to deal with a mix to dry slotting? There will be alot of heartbroken folks here. Again, I am merely tempering my own expectations and downplaying the super extreme solutions. I am in no way writing anything off the table. Lets wait until Wednesday when the energy is onshore and we really have a solid handle on how this may all play out. fair enough... I'm not giving any snow forecasts to any friends until wednesday. Despite the model consensus, one small shift like you pointed out can screw us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I was away all weekend skiing and didn't go on the Internet really at all because I didn't have great service up there. quite frankly I was shocked to see a 7 page thread in this subforum when I got home tonight. Good to see everyone back! I've really just skimmed through everything quickly but seems to be pretty incredible model consistency this far out and the h5 set up is classic for a HECS from what I've seen. The fact most HECS are modeled well in advanc(Boxing Day and jan 2000 are the two notable exceptions) gives me plenty of optimism this far out for a significant storm. Seems to be a pretty classic El Niño Miller A. We have a ways to go still but honestly a 4-8" storm would pretty disappointing with this kind of set up. Not expecting 40 inches but I think widespread 1-2 ft is a pretty reasonable expectation at this point as I don't see many negatives just glancing at the models, I suppose maybe suppression is on the table? Still I would happily take 4-8 inches. Is there any model though showing a suppressed solution right now? no suppression but the GFS has the low hugging the coast and bringing in the dreaded mixing/rain issue near I-95 and points east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I was away all weekend skiing and didn't go on the Internet really at all because I didn't have great service up there. quite frankly I was shocked to see a 7 page thread in this subforum when I got home tonight. Good to see everyone back! I've really just skimmed through everything quickly but seems to be pretty incredible model consistency this far out and the h5 set up is classic for a HECS from what I've seen. The fact most HECS are modeled well in advanc(Boxing Day and jan 2000 are the two notable exceptions) gives me plenty of optimism this far out for a significant storm. Seems to be a pretty classic El Niño Miller A. We have a ways to go still but honestly a 4-8" storm would pretty disappointing with this kind of set up. Not expecting 40 inches but I think widespread 1-2 ft is a pretty reasonable expectation at this point as I don't see many negatives just glancing at the models, I suppose maybe suppression is on the table? Still I would happily take 4-8 inches. Is there any model though showing a suppressed solution right now? Most of the bad signs are imagined from past busts; however, this does not denounce their future viability or plausibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Has anyone seen or know where to find the 12z Euro parallel? That was a mild concern earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Nice! Trust me, Im not trying to be a Debbie Downer but there is still a ways to go until this hits. Plenty of changes are possible. Just expect 1/4 of what models are showing right now and you will be fine...,perhaps even pleasantly surprised. I still have the extremely bitter and sour tastes of March 2001 and January 2015 in my mouth.Both of those were Miller B's though. Really completely different situations. I can't really recall a Miller A that has busted horribly when the models were all locked in to a solution. I understand being cautious with how poor this winter has been though and it's smart to temper expectations this far out. Still I'm close to going all in on this threat even with the chance of a bit of mixing. Even with the 3-4 hours of sleet for pdII I got 24" in lower bucks. My personal expectations are for a foot right now even if we get some mixing. There's just too much cold air and precip depicted on all of the models imo that even mixing won't kill totals that severely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 no suppression but the GFS has the low hugging the coast and bringing in the dreaded mixing/rain issue near I-95 and points eastI just don't see mixing being a huge issue. Even with a flip to sleet for a bit, there's so much qpf associated with it and the high is in a perfect position. In fact most HECS mix for a bit on 95 but still produce epic totals. The ocean temps are a bit concerning for coastal areas though imo. Id be pretty shocked to see a significant mixing issue for 95, the coast may have those issues though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Anyone concerned in the least that the NAVGEM, a generally progressive model, is the farthest N and W with the slp? Ends up overhead of DC. On the other hand, the GEFS mean is considerably far South. Emerges over OBX then meanders ENE. Still alot of uncertainty it appears. And when an ens mean is that far off from the op, that should at least raise an eyebrow. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 We always have mixing issues with the big ones in SEPA. It is inevitable. I believe 96 mixed for a period which I can deal with. Dont need a PD2 repeat tho where we sleeted for hour upon hour. We can hash out those details Thursday. Just know for now, as Im sure you do, that this is common. Nope, not even in Philly were there mixing issues with the blizzard of 96. In fact, for the majority of the event, temps were in the teens. Having stated that, your premise is correct for those living along I-95. Also, for those thumping their chests and giving Ralph a hard time stating certainties for accumulations....don't ever forget March 2000. I lived in Broomall, PA during my youth and I can't count how many storms looked certain only to evaporate or become rain storms. Ralph is 100% correct on having a wait and see attitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Nope, not even in Philly were there mixing issues with the blizzard of 96. In fact, for the majority of the event, temps were in the teens. Having stated that, your premise is correct for those living along I-95. Also, for those thumping their chests and giving Ralph a hard time stating certainties for accumulations....don't ever forget March 2000. I lived in Broomall, PA during my youth and I can't count how many storms looked certain only to evaporate or become rain storms. Ralph is 100% correct on having a wait and see attitude.What was March 2000? I don't recall that storm at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 What was March 2000? I don't recall that storm at all? Sorry, 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Nope, not even in Philly were there mixing issues with the blizzard of 96. In fact, for the majority of the event, temps were in the teens. Having stated that, your premise is correct for those living along I-95. Also, for those thumping their chests and giving Ralph a hard time stating certainties for accumulations....don't ever forget March 2000. I lived in Broomall, PA during my youth and I can't count how many storms looked certain only to evaporate or become rain storms. Ralph is 100% correct on having a wait and see attitude.I must be mistaken re: 96. I am likely thinking March 93 because you are right, temps a non-factor in 96. Sorry for the confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I must be mistaken re: 96. I am likely thinking March 93 because you are right, temps a non-factor in 96. Sorry for the confusion. Yes, the March Superstorm was about a foot of snow with three inches of sleet on top that absolutely crusted over the snow. I remember having to punch the top layer to remove it and shovel the snow underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdog127 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yes, the March Superstorm was about a foot of snow with three inches of sleet on top that absolutely crusted over the snow. I remember having to punch the top layer to remove it and shovel the snow underneath. I remember as a kid riding my bicycle on top of snow through the neighborhood yards..... it was so crusted over with sleet and ice. Dont know if I will ever experience that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Temper your expectations people. Expect a 4-8" snowfall and if we get more, savor every second. The numbers that the numerical models are spitting out are insane and quite frankly, unlikely to verify to that extreme (42"+?...seriously?). I expect a decent storm......... But until then...its all rainbows and unicorns. More like "Yetis and Abominables/Bumbles" ‼️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Sorry, 2001. March 3-5, 2001 was supposed to be the biggest even surpassing '96. I remember TWC had sepa in the bullseye and then it went poof. All the models bailed and we saw just a coating. On of the all time busts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Does anyone know of any Miller As that were suppose to be significant snow storms 96 hours in advance that completely busted? I can't think of any off the top of my head. Every major bust I can think of is a Miller b. There are firsts for everything though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vogelhund Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Sorry, 2001. The Bolaris Storm of the Century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Looking at where the storm is out in the central Pacific I wonder if the models suffer from lack of data issues and we see more of a divergence in model outcomes tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18z GFS has over 40" using a 12:1 - 15:1 ratio in parts of Southeast PA. And until the energy is onshore on Wednesday AM, I am keeping my expectations very low and realistic regardless what guidance shows. You do as you please sir. And just for the record, 4-8" is NOT my forecast. I will put out my numbers Wednesday night. 15-1 or even 12-1 ratios will NOT happen in this setup which is why "40"" in SEPA is Misleading to say the least. Surface temps near freezing and 30-40 mph wind guts mean 10-1 is most likely. Perhaps less if any mix occurs as often does in these type systems6-12 is a reasonable expectation at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 CIPS Analogs. #3 =0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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