AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 18z GFS is another absolute monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Wind field should be impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 18z GFS is Nuclear for the Burbs, Mason Dixon is obliterated with 30"+ Berks, Bucks, Chester, Montco and Delaware counties much of the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 What an insane run. Whoever is lucky enough to get under that CCB is going to be obliterated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 You really can't get much better than the 18z GFS for those N&W of the city. WELL over 2 feet on that run, some spots probably approaching 40" near RDG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 18z is beyond the pale, 42" on the maps from Harrisburg up through Berks and over to Allentown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Can we just lock in that GFS run now? I'm salivating here in Montco. It's a full blown biblical east coast snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 18z is beyond the pale, 42" on the maps from Harrisburg up through Berks and over to Allentown. No words can express just Wow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Some of the maps being posted in the MA forum have temp issues, especially in sepa. EDIT they were surface temps nudging close/above 32° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 18z GFS actually exceeds Blizzard of '96 totals in many places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Can we just lock in that GFS run now? I'm salivating here in Montco. It's a full blown biblical east coast snowstorm BECS - Biblical East Coast Snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 about 96hrs away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 about 96hrs away. Which is almost as long as it took this page to load just now. We're in for a good ride over the next few days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Which is almost as long as it took this page to load just now. We're in for a good ride over the next few days! Lol...did a screenshot. Good times ahead! (I hope) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 another run, another version and many more to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Some of the maps being posted in the MA forum have temp issues, especially in sepa. EDIT they were surface temps nudging close/above 32° We always have mixing issues with the big ones in SEPA. It is inevitable. I believe 96 mixed for a period which I can deal with. Dont need a PD2 repeat tho where we sleeted for hour upon hour. We can hash out those details Thursday. Just know for now, as Im sure you do, that this is common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 another run, another version and many more to go!Poor Cape May! My parents would be glad to see that tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Poor Cape May! My parents would be glad to see that tho. Glenn was saying super sharp rain/snow line which is evident. I'm in the 20-25-30" range w/wind....sign me up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 We always have mixing issues with the big ones in SEPA. It is inevitable. I believe 96 mixed for a period which I can deal with. Dont need a PD2 repeat tho where we sleeted for hour upon hour. We can hash out those details Thursday. Just know for now, as Im sure you do, that this is common. '96 there was zero mixing, but during PDII we had mixing issues really cut into totals. All we need is a nudge east and all should be OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ralph, March '93 had mixing too. Last triple phaser we have had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Love all of this. But the great blizzard of January 2015 has me a bit weary. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishmn Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I hate being in the bullseye 4 days out. Hardly ever verifies. Still its beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 So many damn things could go wrong with this....I'm keeping calm now. Give me afternoon Wed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 As soon as we get the first two model runs once the actual system hits the west coast I'll feel more confident in the solution. Next 2-3 runs will tell us a lot. I think the system as currently model maximizes weenie happiness from WV to NYC. Doesn't get any better than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 . Obscene amount of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Temper your expectations people. Expect a 4-8" snowfall and if we get more, savor every second. The numbers that the numerical models are spitting out are insane and quite frankly, unlikely to verify to that extreme (42"+?...seriously?). I expect a decent storm but also expect snowfall totals on the models to begin getting more realistic at 12z Wednesday after the energy comes onshore and is better sampled. Im a snow weenie among snow weenies and want 3-4 feet more than anyone, but realistically speaking, those kinds of totals are unlikely...so rare it would take perfect perfect perfect conditions. If we are within 12 hours and models still are extreme, then game on. But until then...its all rainbows and unicorns. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Temper your expectations people. Expect a 4-8" snowfall and if we get more, savor every second. The numbers that the numerical models are spitting out are insane and quite frankly, unlikely to verify to that extreme (42"+?...seriously?). I expect a decent storm but also expect snowfall totals on the models to begin getting more realistic at 12z Wednesday after the energy comes onshore and is better sampled. Im a snow weenie among snow weenies and want 3-4 feet more than anyone, but realistically speaking, those kinds of totals are unlikely...so rare it would take perfect perfect perfect conditions. If we are within 12 hours and models still are extreme, then game on. But until then...its all rainbows and unicorns. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Agreed. I can't wait until the first televised snowmap that's normally my gauge. Its easy for me to get roped into the 42" RDG jackpot. I've never hit a big jackpot during my time on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Two Questions: 1. What snow ratio are we expecting for the main event? 2. Why do we tend to get capped around 24" ? We've had No'resters that produce 3.00+ in the fall, so why have we never really exceeded 2' (exception for lollipop locations and 1996, of course), especially when you can potentiate the QPF with a high snow ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Agreed. I can't wait until the first televised snowmap that's normally my gauge. Its easy for me to get roped into the 42" RDG jackpot. I've never hit a big jackpot during my time on this forum.Nice! Trust me, Im not trying to be a Debbie Downer but there is still a ways to go until this hits. Plenty of changes are possible. Just expect 1/4 of what models are showing right now and you will be fine...,perhaps even pleasantly surprised. I still have the extremely bitter and sour tastes of March 2001 and January 2015 in my mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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