RedSky Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Can't get the blower started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM pulls another one out of the hat. lets see if it finally gets some respect this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Snow knocking on DC doorstep based on obs. Gonna be spending a lot of time in the MA obs thread for the rest of the day to try and nail down start time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlsnowman24 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM pulls another one out of the hat. lets see if it finally gets some respect this time. Not really, it's MUCH further north than any other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM pulls another one out of the hat. lets see if it finally gets some respect this time. You know it won't. Next system everyone is going to say "It's the NAM" just like always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gakmsg Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Can't get the blower started 4 feet then - no doubt... So glad I tried mine two nights ago and it didn't jinx it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM pulls another one out of the hat. lets see if it finally gets some respect this time. The storm hasn't even happened yet. For all we know, it could still be too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Not really, it's MUCH further north than any other model. This is true. None are getting this storm right you have to use a blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The storm hasn't even happened yet. For all we know, it could still be too far north. As far as the models go it did start the northern trend whether it goes too far or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Any thoughts om what to expect in Williams township, pa / easton, pa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I battened down the hatches around here today, which undoubtedly means locally we'll bust. Sorry guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Can't get the blower started Can't get the blower started Lol. This storm is a lock then! Hope u get it going. Stay safe everyone. My 22 yo son will have me a nervous wreck out there plowing. I am encouraging him to stay local as can until this thing starts to pull away and it's daylight. Then he can plow his stores and such. Not likely they'll be open anyway........ Great job by all in this forum all week with model analysis. Much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM pulls another one out of the hat. lets see if it finally gets some respect this time. much further north than the rest so it's really on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 4 feet then - no doubt... So glad I tried mine two nights ago and it didn't jinx it.... It's old and used it always started when it was warm...which wasn't that long ago. But yes this is why the storm is heading north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 HRRR dumps on us, even by 7 am 2morrow, nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The storm hasn't even happened yet. For all we know, it could still be too far north. for all we know those qpf totals could be underdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Mt Holly changed my min/max to 11"/23". from 9"/19" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Baroclonic Instability posted very insightful info as to why the euro cut back on accumulation last night....keep this in mind. "What the EC is probably simulating is something that tends to happen in systems where deep, moist convection is driving rather intense latent heat release aloft...the dry slot tends to drive thru faster and the TROWAL tends to form a tad farther N (or NW depending on upper level jet orientation)". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Euro looking better, doesn't have the copious precip numbers according to Tombo. !2" to 18" area wide Ocean Cty 20" to 22". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 1.5 to 1.7 qpf lower bucks ttn per NYC forum wx bell maps are up for 10 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 EURO @ H5 looked better, thats all I had to see. If Philly is going to see 20+ it has to do what GFS/NAM do with that sick CCB tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Houston, we are go for launch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 EURO @ H5 looked better, thats all I had to see. If Philly is going to see 20+ it has to do what GFS/NAM do with that sick CCB tomorrow Not sure we even care about the Euro at this point right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I've always been on the spectrum of people that do use models near storms. You can see some late second trends on the models during a storm. The 00z/6z runs tonight will be interesting to see if that GFS ccb moisture is legit for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Not sure we even care about the Euro at this point right? In a way yeah, recalling what baraclonic instability said in a post on how it handles latent heat, it cuts qpf while the other model's are creating it. However yeah, you are right we are gonna get hit with at least 15" and some nice wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Also the RGEM precip hourly maps are REALLY, REALLY good at simulated radar/precip types. I use them during storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Also the RGEM precip hourly maps are REALLY, REALLY good at simulated radar/precip types. I use them during storms. I recall the HRRR being good at picking up banding a few hours out, but not sure if that is still true.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Just woke up, what a change of events for the northern guys, WOW. New euro FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I've been seeing a pattern on some of the models showing that little gap of lightper precip over Philly and DE....think it is from the dry slot we MAY have around for a short time period 2mor idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Eurowx maps are 20-22 for Philly. The consensus for 18-24 is unreal right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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