Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 MOTHER OF GOD....NAM may be biggest hit yet Eastern PA, WOW! Blizzard: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm heading down to far western ChecCo for this baby to enjoy with you guys. Leaving shortly, should be fun Yes it should be! Have a safe trip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 MOTHER OF GOD....NAM may be biggest hit yet Eastern PA, WOW! see I told you.... like clockwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 MOTHER OF GOD....NAM may be biggest hit yet Eastern PA, WOW! Holy crap! Precip shield moves north WAY ahead of the low, already starting to snow by 6-7PM in some spots around the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks to spread DC Death Band into parts of Eastern PA. Legit or NAM'd? Either way, sitting pretty at this hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I think the most interesting dynamic at play here is how the the short-term, high-res models will rate against the big boys on the block. Funnily enough the Euro ended up coming north a tad at 0Z, but the NAM and SREFs specifically have been pretty consistent in both their QPF amounts and the further north expanse of moisture. Not saying they are right, of course, I just find it interesting how different the looks have been. Usually by now one side caves, and by one side I mean the NAM falls into line. Not going to make the trip home as I just couldn't find the time, but there may be an interesting trowal event out this way to watch, so hopefully we all do well! And if anyone is in Hatboro, let me know how they do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Welcome to my neck of the woods tonight....maybe a little upsloping influence may be push totals up a bit higher here....provided of course we don't dry slot.... I'm heading down to far western ChecCo for this baby to enjoy with you guys. Leaving shortly, should be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The north trends are good, bodes well for more in this forum....everything seems to be coming together for a real nice storm. The satellite imagery is amazing, watching things evolve. My biggest concern at this point is a possible sleet-fest tomorrow, with the strong winds. Maybe some dry slot concerns too. Having said that, I'm loving this. It's Friday and I've got a date with a Blizzard tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 already out to hour 21 My bad, It was still defaulting on 6Z had to click on 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The north trends are good, bodes well for more in this forum....everything seems to be coming together for a real nice storm. The satellite imagery is amazing, watching things evolve. My biggest concern at this point is a possible sleet-fest tomorrow, with the strong winds. Maybe some dry slot concerns too. Having said that, I'm loving this. It's Friday and I've got a date with a Blizzard tonight! Welcome back Kamu! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Must be real good for us because even the MA forum is saying PHL gets smoked. But everybody also thinks the NAM is too north with everything. Will be interesting for sure to see whether the short term models are right vs. the globals with the northern extent of the heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Welcome to my neck of the woods tonight....maybe a little upsloping influence may be push totals up a bit higher here....provided of course we don't dry slot.... Yep, was thinking that, actually where I am going sits around 850ft, so looks to be a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 I think the most interesting dynamic at play here is how the the short-term, high-res models will rate against the big boys on the block. Funnily enough the Euro ended up coming north a tad at 0Z, but the NAM and SREFs specifically have been pretty consistent in both their QPF amounts and the further north expanse of moisture. Not saying they are right, of course, I just find it interesting how different the looks have been. Usually by now one side caves, and by one side I mean the NAM falls into line. Not going to make the trip home as I just couldn't find the time, but there may be an interesting trowal event out this way to watch, so hopefully we all do well! And if anyone is in Hatboro, let me know how they do! Im just a few miles North in Warminster. I will report.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The north trends are good, bodes well for more in this forum....everything seems to be coming together for a real nice storm. The satellite imagery is amazing, watching things evolve. My biggest concern at this point is a possible sleet-fest tomorrow, with the strong winds. Maybe some dry slot concerns too. Having said that, I'm loving this. It's Friday and I've got a date with a Blizzard tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Welcome back Kamu! Thanks Iceman56! Fun times. This reminds me some of the last Friday we were anticipating a major snow - February 5th 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 12K NAM totals (and still snowing lightly): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'll take this in a heart beat. Think Holly upgrades to at least 14-20 if models hold at 12z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 squirrel.gif Hilarious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks to spread DC Death Band into parts of Eastern PA. Legit or NAM'd? Either way, sitting pretty at this hour! Here is what I think should be taken form the NAM. It's is probably a little too tucked in and over amped. Signaling signs of continual northward push of precip shield and dynamics however it's very most likely overdone. I would expect the globals to show a northward progression still however not to the extent of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 By now you would think the NAM would be doing the inevitable surrender to the Euro, but it is upping the ante. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishmn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I have absolutely no idea what to expect for this storm. I'm guessing 12" in Hunterdon Co. NJ. I work overnight in Bethlehem PA. What start time can I expect in the Leheigh Valley? When might the heavy sticking to the roads start? I'm thinking of bagging work tonight. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I think the most interesting dynamic at play here is how the the short-term, high-res models will rate against the big boys on the block. Funnily enough the Euro ended up coming north a tad at 0Z, but the NAM and SREFs specifically have been pretty consistent in both their QPF amounts and the further north expanse of moisture. Not saying they are right, of course, I just find it interesting how different the looks have been. Usually by now one side caves, and by one side I mean the NAM falls into line. Not going to make the trip home as I just couldn't find the time, but there may be an interesting trowal event out this way to watch, so hopefully we all do well! And if anyone is in Hatboro, let me know how they do! I could tee off a golf swing and hit Hatboro....snow reports to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'll take this in a heart beat. Think Holly upgrades to at least 14-20 if models hold at 12z today. namconus_asnow_neus_26.png yesterday's map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Here is what I think should be taken form the NAM. It's is probably a little too tucked in and over amped. Signaling signs of continual northward push of precip shield and dynamics however it's very most likely overdone. I would expect the globals to show a northward progression still however not to the extent of the NAM. With that said, if the NAM is a tick too far N and the other models tick N to meet in the middle, the heaviest snow axis still runs from DC thru PHL and SE PA to NYC. We've taken almost as many hints/cues from the models that they will give us. There is honestly little uncertainty now except in terms of total accums. Look at radar, snow is encroaching. Southern part of region could have accums by 7pm. We are nearing nowcast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM ups the ante even more. (blues, I posted this before even reading any of the comments here...hehe) colder and snowier again.. looking forward to the clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 With that said, if the NAM is a tick too far N and the other models tick N to meet in the middle, the heaviest snow axis still runs from DC thru PHL and SE PA to NYC. We've taken almost as many hints/cues from the models that they will give us. There is honestly little uncertainty now except in terms of total accums. Look at radar, snow is encroaching. Southern part of region could have accums by 7pm. We are nearing nowcast time. Our area...10-11pm-ish? It's coming in quicker than I originally thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM ups the ante even more. (blues, I posted this before even reading any of the comments here...hehe) colder and snowier again.. looking forward to the clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 4 km nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Chances that GFS either remains status-quo , or ups the ante even more. = highly likely. since their generally all taking in the same type of current obs. (12z data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Our area...10-11pm-ish? It's coming in quicker than I originally thought. At the latest I would think based on radar. Will have to see how the dry air affects the northern edge as it encroaches upon us. I would expect several inches by daybreak here. 12K NAM says snow/virga by 1PM. Seems a little overzealous to me but still looks to be moving rapidly North: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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