Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 RGEM ticking North, qpf increasing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You didn't sleep long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 You didn't sleep long.Woke up to pee, nodding back off just wanted to pop in and say hi. Quick glance at models suggests getting several more hours sleep....long weekend coming! Everything on track. See u all 12z-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Gfs looks to push larger accumulations further north to me... LHV looking good so far. QPF 00z 0.3 -> 06z 0.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattMal88 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That NAM clown map is just insane! 4-5 feet near Harrisburg lol. I couldn't even imagine a snowfall that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 6z GFS shifted heaviest qpf axis North again. I wouldnt look verbatim that it lowered totals across SE PA slightly as this is noise at this range but moreso that it now lines PHL and SE PA up perfectly almost with the heavier snow axis. And i will believe the 48" or so totals in DC when I see it...again, noise. Yes they are ground zero but this is overdone imo. Trends are great! Steady as she goes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 ^ And another 18hrs+ till start time. A little more trending north? I'm happy as hell w/our position right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The tracking page is still around with many tracking features such as water vapors, radars and sat loops. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/4152-tracking-storms-201011/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 New SREF ups the ante. Widespread 2'+ if I am reading this correctly: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Textbook track....slows to a crawl: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 We've seen this many times before, it's all about the pivot. Who's ever under the precip shield when it pivots (and avoids any dry slot) will be the big winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Did a few snow rituals today. Looking good for us! I bet Ralph doesn't get up til 3pm or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 From the MA folks reporting: Sounds like some flakes then all hell breaks loose. The comma is impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I am rooting hard for an eastward shift of everything. Still don't like how everything cuts back east of the Chesapeake Bay. Been very persistent.....dry slot and subsistance issues I guess......maybe even sleet worries. Going to be an agonizing day watching this thing crawl up to us. Snowing hard already in southern VA. But the NWS is saying snow is a couple hours faster than they thought.....saying into BWI by 3pm today.....could make our rush hour pretty rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 We've seen this many times before, it's all about the pivot. Who's ever under the precip shield when it pivots (and avoids any dry slot) will be the big winner. I just wrote something similar......I am very worried that dryslot will be us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Did a few snow rituals today. Looking good for us! I bet Ralph doesn't get up til 3pm or something. Yeah, but he strikes me like the old Dunkin Donuts guy. Internal clock "dings" and he's like "Oh, time for the NAM" or "Oh, time for the euro". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm heading down to far western ChecCo for this baby to enjoy with you guys. Leaving shortly, should be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I am rooting hard for an eastward shift of everything. Still don't like how everything cuts back east of the Chesapeake Bay. Been very persistent.....dry slot and subsistance issues I guess......maybe even sleet worries. Going to be an agonizing day watching this thing crawl up to us. Snowing hard already in southern VA. But the NWS is saying snow is a couple hours faster than they thought.....saying into BWI by 3pm today.....could make our rush hour pretty rough. It's faster, but the air in front of it is extremely dry. Will have to saturate it first to get anything to the ground. Still don't think we'll see anything until later this evening (even for Wilmington) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief83 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Be careful with what you wish for. I am as crazy as most of you about wanting the most snow possible, but IF this pans out with the worst case scenarios (highest snow amount, highest winds, etc) keep in mind emergency vehicles will not be able to get to some calls. I can remember in my township (Worcester Twp. Montgomery County) some of our roads being closed long term to any vehicles as the largest plows the state / county highway departments had in this area could not handle the drifts. Huge snow blowers and front end loaders were brought in from western PA to open the roads. I think this was in the early 80's. Maybe the 83 storm - not sure. Maybe our local equipment is different now - not sure - but this could be disastrous. With that Debbie Downer statement - on with the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm heading down to far western ChecCo for this baby to enjoy with you guys. Leaving shortly, should be fun You might only need to stop in NYC the way this thing has been trending. Unless you plan to make it all the way to northern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmosk Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Ho-Lee Hannah! The 09Z SREFs have sure upped the ante. The *lowest* model in the ensemble gives PHL 14 inches; the average is over 20! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I think the equipment upgrade for departments is much better than the 80s.That being said it's the cities that have the issues. I can't remember what storm it was, but I remember being a week out and some philly streets were still completely unplowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Professors already gearing up their "hell or high water, you're coming in on Monday" speeches! Seriously though, this is absolutely fascinating -- watching the models flicker and waver and predicting which ones are spitting out fact and which ones got cracker crumbs dropped in the equipment. I love it! Welcome to your new addiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If someone doesn't hit 20"+ in the area w/this one I'll be shocked. And the winds may be 40+ at times...good stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I think the equipment upgrade for departments is much better than the 80s. That being said it's the cities that have the issues. I can't remember what storm it was, but I remember being a week out and some philly streets were still completely unplowed. Ah yes, the ice ruts on the Philly side streets that rip the exhaust right off your car... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Checking in. Morning lads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The NAM is almost ready the hour has changed waiting on the maps. Will the 12Z run nail this down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The NAM is almost ready the hour has changed waiting on the maps. Will the 12Z run nail this down? already out to hour 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The NAM is almost ready the hour has changed waiting on the maps. Will the 12Z run nail this down? It will nail us Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You might only need to stop in NYC the way this thing has been trending. Unless you plan to make it all the way to northern VA. My family is in Chesco, so its a nice landing spot. If I was chasing the true jack...yea Winchester/I-81 area looks like a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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