hazwoper Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Other than the notion that the NAM is usually over amped, is there any other reason to throw it out? Because if the only reason is due to its bias, surely that's a poor reason? As the mets correctly pointed out on radio show it is typical much to wet at this timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 At 33hr 4k has slp off NC and 12k has it tucked up by norfolk. Could be indication 12k is a bit too far north. 4k seemed to be much closer to other models previously.At 36hr 12k has slp same spot, 4k has moved it north even with it, but about 50 miles off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Snow maps will be fun to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Much of Eastern PA *only* 17-24" this run ;-) NAM qpf coming in line with other guidance now actually. Seems more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 50 miles or so off Norfolk is our sweet spot and then stall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Things are jacked up "run-wise"...hope it continues. Ralph should be sleeping... Soon enough :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Hi RES still looks great at 33 sim reflectivity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It looked like at 18z that some were willing to start accepting the 4k as a bit more realistic. This run is north of that, but not as crazy north as the 12k (who's dropping snow up in NH and VT). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 He is not on tonight. Assuming folks had had enough of his awful sense of humor Wouldn't say awful....if you have thick skin, sense of humor and brush things off. (some people can handle it/some can't) He does provide insight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wouldn't say awful....if you have thick skin, sense of humor and brush things off. (some people can handle it/some can't) He does provide insight... No, his jokes he tries to make...they are terrible. I am not speaking about his brashness. I am mention his stupid comments where he tries to sound funny. My 9 year old is more humorous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That 12k is just too far north. Nothing else is even close to that track. If the Euro or GFS was the outlier up there, maybe, but not the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Sits on the delmarva coast for 9hrs and pours snow inland. Still outside it's 30hr most useful range however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Light snow and snow showers thru 10am Sunday. Saw what I needed to see. Goodnight guys, long days coming up. I suggest sleep: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That 12k is just too far north. Nothing else is even close to that track. Without the double barrel low to push it east, it could easily gain that latitude before bombing. Did I see right, that from hours 36-42ish it just stalls off the coast of VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 But if the NAM is getting the precip right for the DC area here, why are we ruling out the precip shown for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'd bet the 4k is more believable. It still pushes the precip north, just not a crazy amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Hi RES NAM sim radar still looks great for SEPA. Giddy up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM is about where we want it. Is its placement realistic? Who knows. But any more ticks North on NAM and SE PA has to start monitoring the dreaded dry slot. You can see on qpf maps the heaviest band is now just North of the city. I like where we are at though honestly. How can you not at this point?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 RGEM IS N SO FAR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 But if the NAM is getting the precip right for the DC area here, why are we ruling out the precip shown for us? Because it's in a better window for usefulness down there (30 hrs), plus the 4k and 12k agree still at that point. Maybe the runs tomorrow will prove solid, but I just think the 12k is a bit too overdone. More model consensus on that north a track and I'll change my mind. Otherwise gauge using the 4k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Does anybody have precip map for hi-res NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM is about where we want it. Is its placement realistic? Who knows. But any more ticks North on NAM and SE PA has to start monitoring the dreaded dry slot. You can see on qpf maps the heaviest band is now just North of the city. I like where we are at though honestly. How can you not at this point?? Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Ralph!You're talking in your sleep again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Note, storm hasn't pulled completely out to see at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Just want to add I am not suggesting the dry slot reaches us. Just something to watch. And even if it does, per NAM, the damage is already done. No worries, be happy :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This is more what these storms have historically looked like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Ralph! You're talking in your sleep again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 the hi RES NAM is incredible for SEPA. Meanwhile....nothing about it on the radio show and how it plasters SEPA (even though before it finished eveyone was saying it was much better than regular NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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