Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Nam is rolling. Reaction if this is juiced again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Reaction if this is juiced again? Read my signature. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 What is his area, mind?Richmond, VA. I am obviously joking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Reaction if this is juiced again? "It's the NAM" Calling it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 go read Phil882's explanation as to why the SREF's cannot be trusted, in NYC forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Man that h5 is negative tilting like a mofo at 18! Is it coming further north??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This run is quicker with the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 21z Fri and already virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 go read Phil882's explanation as to why the SREF's cannot be trusted, in NYC forumI read that and found it interesting. I've only ever used the sref for trends and never for a verbatim forecast. They are a very useful tool if used properly such as to see which way a slp may be trending based on model spread errors, general precip trends ie where might the heaviest precip axis be located, etc. They tend to often times be a foreshadowing of what the next model suite may bring, ie, 21z sref might yield some clues as to what the 0z NAM et al trends will be. I say the NAM in particular because the sref are run off of that model if my memory serves me correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 30 hrs negligible differences, probably just some noise. Confluence pulling North, slp a tick East, qpf more expansive to North. Coming North again this run. Not sure if we will get the NAM qpf bomb but hopefully we can get a solid idea of totals without having to ask if we just got NAMd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looking at the VA snow totals this far out, definitely not as qpf amped as previous runs. Looks a bit more believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 PS....gonna try to do pbp but bear with me, server is giving me fits loading at times.. . Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 What is going on?! I thought after 18z another jump north was impossible...apparently not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 36 hrs - SEPA heavy snow, getting crushed. Slp a tick east again of 12z. Everything else virtually unchanged to my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 36 PHL and south getting hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Apparently new dropsode in the 0z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Through 27hr both 4k and 12k nam in agreement (which should limit the worry about the 12k overdoing it's path). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wow, NE MD, most of DE, SE PA crush job Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 39. A beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 So how many times in a row has the NAM been consistent, and when do you start taking this consistency seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 42 still puking snow Meanwhile mets on radio show trashing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 39 hrs - E PA, most of NJ, NYC blizzard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 42 still puking snow Meanwhile mets on radio show trashing it Yes they are. Did they mention anything about the 18z gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 42 still puking snow Meanwhile mets on radio show trashing it DT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Apparently new dropsode in the 0z suite 000 NOUS42 KNHC 211627 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1130 AM EST THU 21 JANUARY 2016 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JANUARY 2016 WSPOD NUMBER.....15-052 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 A. A65/ DROP 9(28.7N 76.6W)/ 23/0000Z <-- About 200mi off coast of FL east of Orlando B. AFXXX 04WSA TRACK65 C. 22/1900Z D. 10 AS SPECIFIED IN THE NWSOP E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 23/0200Z FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73 A. A62/ DROP 7(34.0N 72.3W)/ 23/1200Z <-- About 200mi ESE of Hatteras B. AFXXX 05WSA TRACK62 C. 23/0600Z D. 10 AS SPECIFIED IN THE NWSOP E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 23/1400Z 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. $ JWP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Been watching the radar most of the day, holy cow, that's a huge system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Things are jacked up "run-wise"...hope it continues. Ralph should be sleeping... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 DT? He is not on tonight. Assuming folks had had enough of his awful sense of humor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Other than the notion that the NAM is usually over amped, is there any other reason to throw it out? Because if the only reason is due to its bias, surely that's a poor reason? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yes they are. Did they mention anything about the 18z gfs? No but I am praying 0Z is further north still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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