Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What models are up next, and what are their times. I really should know this by now sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
56er Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yeah someone in NYC said 2' just west of ACY?? Oh boy?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yeah someone in NYC said 2' just west of ACY? ACY does look like about 2" QPF, not sure if it is all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
56er Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 ACY does look like about 2" QPF, not sure if it is all snow. Doubtful with winds straight out of the east for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 No scientific basis for this other than living here for 30 some odd years, but really think (and hope) the LV folks get in on this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 How do mets get away with saying 1' - 2'......That's the equivilant of saying 0 inches - 12 inches. "Get away with?" Seriously? Make a forecast, then be held accountable for it. Different ballgame than sitting here in the cheap seats. Dunno honestly. That has always been a range used in the past. Blizzard 96 nws call was 1-3' feet. 0-12 is a different probability range than 12-24 fwiw. I'm not a statistics guy tho so someone else will need to chime in. NWS Forecasts for 1996: Morning forecast for January 7, 1996:*Blizzard Warning in effect through tonight* *Around two feet of snow possible* Today...Snow, heavy at times. Accumulations of around one foot by night. Becoming windy with blowing and drifting snow in the afternoon. Highs 20 to 25. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 25 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Tonight...Snow, heavy at times. Very windy with blowing and drifting snow. Lows in the lower 20s. Northeast wind 25 to 35 mph and gusty, diminishing towards morning. Afternoon forecast for January 7, 1996: *Blizzard Warning in effect through tonight* *Around two feet of snow possible* This afternoon...Snow heavy at times. Accumulations of around one foot by night. Becoming windy with blowing and drifting snow in the afternoon. Highs low 20s. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 25 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Tonight...Snow, heavy at times. Very windy with blowing and drifting snow. Lows in the lower 20s. Northeast wind 25 to 35 mph and gusty, diminishing towards morning. Evening forecast for January 7, 1996: *Blizzard Warning in effect through Monday morning* *Around two feet of snow possible* Tonight...Snow, heavy at times. Very windy with blowing and drifting snow. Lows in the lower 20s. Northeast wind 25 to 35 mph and gusty. Monday...Windy and cold with snow or snow showers likely. Blowing and drifting snow likely. Highs near 30. North wind 20 to 30 mph. POP 70. Overnight forecast for January 7, 1996: *Blizzard Warning in effect through Monday morning* *An addition 3 to 6 inches of snow for a total of 15 to 30 inches* Overnight...Intermittent snow, heavy at times. Very windy with blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures 20 to 25. Northeast wind 25 to 35 mph and gusty. Monday...Windy and cold with snow or snow showers likely. Blowing and drifting snow likely. Highs near 30. North wind 20 to 30 mph. POP 70. Morning forecast for January 8, 1996: *Blizzard Warning this morning - Considerable blowing and drifting snow* *18 to 30 inches of snow - Total storm accumulation* Today...Windy and bitterly cold. Snow tapering off to snow showers and flurries this afternoon. Highs in the mid 20s. North winds 20 to 35 mph decreasing to 15 to 25 mph. Morning update for January 8, 1996: *Advisory for blowing and drifting snow today* Today...Windy and bitterly cold with scattered snow showers and flurries which may accumulate an inch or two. Highs in the mid 20s. North winds 20 to 35 mph decreasing to 15 to 25 mph. Afternoon forecast for January 8, 1996: *Advisory for snow, blowing and drifting snow this afternoon* This afternoon...Windy and bitterly cold with snow tapering to scattered snow showers and flurries. Additional accumulations of one to three inches. Highs in the mid 20s. North winds 20 to 35 mph decreasing to 15 to 25 mph late. Source: Ray's site Don't see a single 1-3' on there. Biggest spread is 15-30" which is a very wide spread, but for example, county ranges in NJ went like this: Camden: 22-33" Gloucester: 15.5-24" Cumberland: 11-25" Burlington: 16-30" ...so I'd say their forecasts were pretty damn good actually considering they're forecasting for > 3 million people. Uncertain sure. But to cover their ass as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Ralph you in for the long haul tonight?Not tonight. Still nursing the back end of the flu bug. Gonna pop a couple Advil PM and sleep like a log tonight. I *might* make it thru the 0z NAM, see how I'm feeling. Wanna recharge the battery for the weekend. I have 2 young kids and it will be a long weekend of sledding, snowmen, snow forts, etc. This 41 year old body doesn't quite recover physically as it used to.Will be up early tomorrow though for the long day ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 "Get away with?" Seriously? Make a forecast, then be held accountable for it. Different ballgame than sitting here in the cheap seats. NWS Forecasts for 1996: Source: Ray's site Don't see a single 1-3' on there. Biggest spread is 15-30" which is a very wide spread, but for example, county ranges in NJ went like this: Camden: 22-33" Gloucester: 15.5-24" Cumberland: 11-25" Burlington: 16-30" ...so I'd say their forecasts were pretty damn good actually considering they're forecasting for > 3 million people. There was a discussion scroll across the weather channel (red screen) the night prior which said anywhere from 1-3' is possible. Have the footage right here on video. Again I believe it was a special weather statement and not an actual zone forecast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Not tonight. Still nursing the back end of the flu bug. Gonna pop a couple Advil PM and sleep like a log tonight. I *might* make it thru the 0z NAM, see how I'm feeling. just don't call 911, eh ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Not tonight. Still nursing the back end of the flu bug. Gonna pop a couple Advil PM and sleep like a log tonight. I *might* make it thru the 0z NAM, see how I'm feeling. Wanna recharge the battery for the weekend. I have 2 young kids and it will be a long weekend of sledding, snowmen, snow forts, etc. This 41 year old body doesn't quite recover physically as it used to. Will be up early tomorrow though for the long day ahead. You have to take care of yourself and get some rest. I am 66 and have been doing this since I was 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 DT is still calling for 8-12. Is that really fair? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 DT is still calling for 8-12. Is that really fair? sure, that is a fair forecast. I would lean more towards the 12-16 range, but given that the Euro and GGEM, along with the parallel Euro, and Euro Ensembles are all in that range, it is certainly reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 DT is still calling for 8-12. Is that really fair? Id say it's okay, if it's as windy as they say it'll be the wind will breakdown the dendrites and limit accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 DT is also surprised that models like the NAM still have snow around Saturday 10pm.....Wasn't this suppose to last INTO Sunday morning? (7am-ish)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 21Z srefs came a lot further north according to the NYC forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 21Z srefs came a lot further north according to the NYC forum. Yep They look great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 21Z srefs came a lot further north according to the NYC forum. they are right, way north, actually looks a lot like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 So... blizzard warnings for the watch area or winter storm warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smitty97 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Does anyone know if elevation will play a role in amounts? Does this happen closer to the marginally 32F areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 One thing I noticed on the sref is the surface low looks much more organized than the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 http://www.blogtalkradio.com/americanwx/2016/01/22/american-weather-radio-show-1212016-potential-east-coast-storm Radio show tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 So... blizzard warnings for the watch area or winter storm warnings? Im not picky I'll take either, one just means more wind then the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Im not picky I'll take either, one just means more wind then the other Dude...my screenname? Clearly I want one more than the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 http://www.blogtalkradio.com/americanwx/2016/01/22/american-weather-radio-show-1212016-potential-east-coast-storm Radio show tonight... what time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 DT is still calling for 8-12. Is that really fair?Sounds great for his area given the shifts North recently ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 what time? 9:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Nam is rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Nam running and alredy showing some height rises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Sounds great for his area given the shifts North recently ;-) What is his area, mind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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