Voyager Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 that map is incorrect. looks exactly like the 12z Yeah, this is what I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This must be the right solution as it has the jackpot right over my house.....right? Yeah, this is what I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NBC10 just said "don't call 911 to get updates on the weather" Who are these idiots and there must be many... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NBC10 just said "don't call 911 to get updates on the weather" Who are these idiots and there must be many... HAAHA.....it's not funny, but your phrasing was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Glad I went with 1-2' here in Warminster. I could see low end of that range OR high end of that range possibly verifying. I never like going with a range that broad but feel comfy with that call and probably wont adjust it either way at this point unless something drastic changes last second. Good luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Sorry guys, I posted yesterdays 18Z GFS by mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Probably RedSky, though he is far from an idiot. I'm calling 911 for the NAM, GFS and especially the Euro totals tonight. Really can't believe how stupid people can be at times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How do mets get away with saying 1' - 2'......That's the equivilant of saying 0 inches - 12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 How do mets get away with saying 1' - 2'......That's the equivilant of saying 0 inches - 12 inches.Dunno honestly. That has always been a range used in the past. Blizzard 96 nws call was 1-3' feet.0-12 is a different probability range than 12-24 fwiw. I'm not a statistics guy tho so someone else will need to chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How do mets get away with saying 1' - 2'......That's the equivilant of saying 0 inches - 12 inches. Uncertain sure. But to cover their ass as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How do mets get away with saying 1' - 2'......That's the equivilant of saying 0 inches - 12 inches. That is quite the range, but probably because 0-12" impact differences are vast from min to max. Whereas 1-2' has less drastic differences in impact from min to max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Most common ranges are 1-3, 2-4, 3-6, 4-8, 5-10, etc so on and so forth. I have no logical explanation for why those ranges are used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Most common ranges are 1-3, 2-4, 3-6, 4-8, 5-10, etc so on and so forth. I have no logical explanation for why those ranges are used. You forgot 3-5" and 4-7" (back in the day).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 LOL, well, at least it's not the EXPERIMENTAL MT holly snow potential maps, map one minimum is less than an inch for my area, map two most likely is 15", and map 3 maximum potential is 20". Trace to 20", good range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NBC10 just said "don't call 911 to get updates on the weather" Who are these idiots and there must be many... the media could be partly to blame ,with how they report each big storm like it's the end of the world. I guess that combined with whatever certain drugs people are on, could make them silly like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 the media could be partly to blame ,with how they report each big storm like it's the end of the world. I guess that combined with whatever certain drugs people are on, could make them silly like that. I'll go w/that to some extent. (older people who need meds) Sad part is...many are just lazy/stupid and not taking meds. I have 911 on speed-dial.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Most common ranges are 1-3, 2-4, 3-6, 4-8, 5-10, etc so on and so forth. I have no logical explanation for why those ranges are used. 1-2' range is fine in a classic setup like this where banding can really make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ralph you in for the long haul tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 1-2' range is fine in a classic setup like this where banding can really make a difference. exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ed Hana just explained that the new GFS smokes the Lehigh valley and he's getting excited I can tell haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Majority of the GEFS members went up substantially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Cecily with some face time on World News Tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 heard the parallel euro was out and even farther south than the OP, but since I do not know where to get that model, I will ask someone who does to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So when do we really start to lock in on a particular model trend? Or is this a storm that will be a game-time decision? Tomorrow night it should be pretty locked down. After that it'll become a nowcast event and we'll just have to see. Especially with the capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So when do we really start to lock in on a particular model trend? Or is this a storm that will be a game-time decision? I think some trends you can lock in on at this point, like the jackpot area is DC/NOVA, and that our area will be hit with a substantial snowstorm. I think the very specific trends, last minute ticks, and meso issues like banding won't be apparent until tomorrow, and even then not always so obvious until it is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 heard the parallel euro was out and even farther south than the OP, but since I do not know where to get that model, I will ask someone who does to verify.Don't know anything about that (and even further south makes it sound like GFS is south when it isnt).The GEFS members are all further north EDIT - sorry I see you said Euro not GFS. My mistake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Don't know anything about that (and even further south makes it sound like GFS is south when it isnt). The GEFS members are all further north umm i was talking about the Parallel Euro, hence OP refers to the Euro not the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 umm i was talking about the Parallel Euro, hence OP refers to the Euro not the GFS. See above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Don't know anything about that (and even further south makes it sound like GFS is south when it isnt). The GEFS members are all further north EDIT - sorry I see you said Euro not GFS. My mistake See above lol, np. in any event i just saw it, it isn't great, but not that different than the OP Euro. Maybe 10 for PHL, less N and W, more S and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 lol, np. in any event i just saw it, it isn't great, but not that different than the OP Euro. Maybe 10 for PHL, less N and W, more S and E. Yeah someone in NYC said 2' just west of ACY?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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