hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 it is north of 12z i agree, my point was it is still nothing like the NAM. a compromise between the two is really all we need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 a compromise between the two is really all we need agreed. the GFS is a nice run, i'd take it, and it is better for a lot of the LV too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RGEM is actually a decent SEPA hit...still snowing after 54 hours. 18z GFS big SE PA hit. The hits continue. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk The models' Greatest Hits compilation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 the GFS is jacked up for our region, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS seems to be acknowledging the NAM is onto something! My hopes were starting to give some but this has rebuilt my HYPE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Its a massive hit for SEPA on the GFS!!! Jackpot again. can the NAM and GFS be sniffing something out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 SEPA gets stuck under some heavy banding and gets absolutely crushed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's in the actual Blizzard Watch text. I know it's only shifted down by 2 inches, but no one likes seeing that, and I hope it's not a trend.... You're complaining about ticking down 2 inches while I'm looking at the possibility of being shafted by the gradient? Sheesh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wayy to much with the cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Its a massive hit for SEPA on the GFS!!! Jackpot again. can the NAM and GFS be sniffing something out? I don't really think the NAM and GFS are alike, the GFS is north, but not that north, and nothing like the NAM. Also not terribly different than 12z. Except for that weird blob of 3 inches QPF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RGEM is actually a decent SEPA hit...still snowing after 54 hours. 18z GFS big SE PA hit. The hits continue. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk I'd beg to differ on the RGEM, yes you have to extrapolate, but the storm is already pulling E by the last frame. Snow in central PA is retreating s/se. That means the heavy band never makes it north of delaware state line. PHL only has about 5/6" with not likely much more. Only .5 qpf falls in center city by that point. Just don't see SEPA getting anything more than 5-10 max (which is still decent, but in relative terms of where we have been the last 24 hours). That being said if the GFS stays on board with this, I'm good tossing the rgem out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RGEM was good for PHL. GFS was 2' plus for PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Its a massive hit for SEPA on the GFS!!! Jackpot again. can the NAM and GFS be sniffing something out? NAM and GFS aren't alike. just look at them both and pretend Connecticut is where u live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM and GFS aren't alike. just look at them both and pretend Connecticut is where u live where in my post do you see the word "alike"??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 where in my post do you see the word "alike"??? it's infers it that's probably why two people commented on it. no big deal really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 it's infers it that's probably why two people commented on it. no big deal really. I think he might be saying the NAM is sniffing out a trend north, which may be so, but it is so overdone i wouldn't use it for more than that. But I get the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 You know where they are "alike"? where they hang back a massive CCB thgrough much of east PA! Which I what I meant by sniffing something out. That the actual heavy precip shield may in fact make it into eastern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Does anybody have apt total for PHL off of 18z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How accurate are models at predicting banding, though? (I seriously don't know, hence the question). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think he might be saying the NAM is sniffing out a trend north, which may be so, but it is so overdone i wouldn't use it for more than that. But I get the point. that is what I was saying, and actually the precip field on both the NAM and GFS are as close as they have been to this point in our region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 PHL looks about 2" of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 gfs18Z_1-20-16.png that map is incorrect. looks exactly like the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 You're complaining about ticking down 2 inches while I'm looking at the possibility of being shafted by the gradient? Sheesh... You get screwed no matter what in the past few years....damn. I'll "give up" a storm so you get plastered.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 something seems wrong with how the GFS pulls out from 54 to 60 hours on this run. It's like the CAD disappears all of a sudden....and storm quickly heads out to sea. Prvious runs, it held stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 (Total Wishcasting) - While I would love that GFS jackpot to move 25 miles east in PA, I'll sign up right now for that run (unless I can have the 12z Nam) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks like the GFS likes the 2 low idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 You get screwed no matter what in the past few years....damn. I'll "give up" a storm so you get plastered.... Thanks, but I'd never ask or want that. I just want an expanded precip field and no sharp cutoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Does anybody have apt total for PHL off of 18z GFS? Do you mean QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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