baseball0618 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Holy Moly! How do u forecast for that map verbatim? "Around 2 feet of snow with 36" or greater lollipops". Or do u just go with "2-3 feet with isolated higher amounts"? Geez Louise! Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk You go with 18-24+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The models have been remarkably consistent. I feel really good about this, as we are now basically 100 hours to start of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The models have been remarkably consistent. I feel really good about this, as we are now basically 100 hours to start of the event. 100 hours is a lot of time in the world of forecasting. a little difference in timing going forward could mean a totally different outcome. You still have 8 12 hr model suites to make it through. You still need to tread lightly and not get yourself invested just yet. Wait until 12z runs tomorrow at the earliest IMO. I am waiting until 0Z weds personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 100 hours is a lot of time in the world of forecasting. a little difference in timing going forward could mean a totally different outcome. You still have 8 12 hr model suites to make it through. You still need to tread lightly and not get yourself invested just yet. Wait until 12z runs tomorrow at the earliest IMO. I am waiting until 0Z weds personally. believe me I know. I'm still very concerned. Always am when there are so many factors coming together. But man this could be awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 believe me I know. I'm still very concerned. Always am when there are so many factors coming together. But man this could be awesome The potential is quite impressive. I don't recall at this lead-time every seeing the models all showing such an intense storm. I guess it's partially due to the resolution capabilities of the models these days being much more able to see the potential at longer lead-times. Probably also why they seem to always show monster storms out in fantasy range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z ECM had 20" in Wilkes Barre! it's a hundred mile shift south Most of the EURO ens are clustered W of the mean...wouldn't worry out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If it is any consolation, the normally progressive NAVGEM is an inside runner with quite a bit non-frozen: I suppose what I am saying is, until we have a clearer picture of the track maybe by 12Z Wed/0Z Thurs, I would take any shifts with a grain of salt. At that time, I would start watching for clear trends, but still a little early to get concerned one way or the other. Plus, do you think you are going to remain in the bullseye for the next 7-8 Euro runs with zero fluctuation? Hang in there.....steady as she goes! Looks an awful lot like the 0z gfs para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I am in awe at the 12z GFS. Somebody on this board will get well over 30" from that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 GFS has it almost vertically stacked and stalling post 120 hours. Amazing run! Crush job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Still showing a long duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z GFS just another Jan 96 repeat, this is ridiculous. Really interested in the 12z ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z GFS just another Jan 96 repeat, this is ridiculous. Really interested in the 12z ECM Please don't compare to 96 b/c it's not a similar type of storm evolution. Just because your seeing snow totals in your area that might be similar to 96 doesn't mean it's the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Actually it is eerily similar in evolution to 1996. The 500 mb patterns are almost a dead ringer. Just somewhat colder out in front of the 96 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Actually it is eerily similar in evolution to 1996. The 500 mb patterns are almost a dead ringer. Just somewhat colder out in front of the 96 stormAgreed, very similar 500mb depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Actually it is eerily similar in evolution to 1996. The 500 mb patterns are almost a dead ringer. Just somewhat colder out in front of the 96 storm No it's not. 96 low originating out of the Gulf not the southwest. Not alike at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 "The storm formed in the Gulf of Mexico the morning of the 6th, moved south of Alabama the evening of the 6th, reached Savannah, Georgia the morning of the 7th, Cape Hattaras the evening of the 7th, just east of the Delaware Bay the morning of the 8th, and the southern New England coastal waters the evening of the 8th. This was a classic storm track for heavy snow." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 No two HECS have been exactly alike let's just get a ton of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12Z GGEM looks amazing. Maybe a touch warmer than we'd like, but that's kinda its thing anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 No two HECS have been exactly alike let's just get a ton of snow I can live with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z UKMET with an ideal track. Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 ggem also not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 There is word *cough cough* that the 0z ECM parallel run which comes out late shows no storm north of DC and is a Virginia crusher, a model that has been scoring quite well. 12z OP coming in soon with MUCH anticipation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 There is word *cough cough* that the 0z ECM parallel run which comes out late shows no storm north of DC and is a Virginia crusher, a model that has been scoring quite well. 12z OP coming in soon with MUCH anticipation. DT must have hacked the computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z ECM through 96hrs everything is looking good no major changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 120 HUGE storm! Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The Euro is an absolute monster. A little slower, a little more amped and the high in Canada is stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Great track it's a big dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 My problem is that I get greedy in these type of storms: Big storm? Great! NOW LET'S GO BIGGER!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Crush job! Cant see temps but given the explosive dynamics I think the Euro makes *almost* everyone in this subforum very happy! Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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