GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NWS lowered totals in Blizzard Watch to 10-16. ugh only 10-16, might as well be flurries! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 High res nam has a better handle of the confluence, dry air to the north cutting the percip shield. I'm comparing the qpf vs snow amounts...check out the wicked cutoff up north...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NWS lowered totals in Blizzard Watch to 10 - 16. Ugh. where? here is the point and click for blue bell: Friday Night Snow, mainly after 10pm. Low around 23. Northeast wind 7 to 12 mph increasing to 13 to 18 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Saturday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 31. Blustery, with a northeast wind around 22 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Saturday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Blustery, with a north wind 13 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just now Glenn 10-14" and surrounding burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NWS TTN storm total 9" low end 19" high end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Mount Holly has also lowered their minimums and most likely ranges as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just now Glenn 10-14" and surrounding burbs. seems like a reasonable forecast to me! i might be tempted to go 12-16, but very little difference. I wish Glenn still posted here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 where? here is the point and click for blue bell: It's in the actual Blizzard Watch text. I know it's only shifted down by 2 inches, but no one likes seeing that, and I hope it's not a trend.... * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... 10 TO 16 INCHES POSSIBLE. http://www.weather.com/weather/alerts/localalerts/l/USPA0865:1:US?phenomena=BZ&significance=A&areaid=PAZ104&office=KPHI&etn=0001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's in the actual Blizzard Watch text. I know it's only shifted down by 2 inches, but no one likes seeing that, and I hope it's not a trend.... * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... 10 TO 16 INCHES POSSIBLE. http://www.weather.com/weather/alerts/localalerts/l/USPA0865:1:US?phenomena=BZ&significance=A&areaid=PAZ104&office=KPHI&etn=0001 well, you have been reading the thread and following along with the models today, since you have been posting. Given the discussion, it can't be a surprise to you that the forecast was slightly lowered. Try not to live and die by every update or model run the general trend for around a foot of snow for most of us has been there for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 a feel big jump north in the GFS coming.....just a feeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's in the actual Blizzard Watch text. I know it's only shifted down by 2 inches, but no one likes seeing that, and I hope it's not a trend.... * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... 10 TO 16 INCHES POSSIBLE. http://www.weather.com/weather/alerts/localalerts/l/USPA0865:1:US?phenomena=BZ&significance=A&areaid=PAZ104&office=KPHI&etn=0001 hmmm...guess the nws site hasn't updated yet...in any event, you'll never ever ever notice the difference between 16 inches and 18 inches of snow when you're getting blizzard winds for 6 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 hmmm...guess the nws site hasn't updated yet...in any event, you'll never ever ever notice the difference between 16 inches and 18 inches of snow when you're getting blizzard winds for 6 hours... This cant believe we are up set sitting under a blizzard watch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The WPC tossed the 12z NAM. Wonder if they'll do the same for this run.If that's the case our WSW should be getting dropped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think people want their whole seasonal total in 1 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RGEM looks good for the Philly area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That 4k nam is just about the nail in the coffin for the LV I think , we will be on the outside looking in I'm afraid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Maybe it will be like this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS is rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 At 15 GFS has a bit more ridge out ahead and the qpf shield is further north (can see it easily in KY) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think people want their whole seasonal total in 1 storm. Considering this might be the only shot at a storm it isn't all that an unreasonable request. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 at 27 precip shield still a bit further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 42 mod (borderline heay) snow in PHL. its coming north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS gonna be better for northern fringe guys in the LV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 ugh, the rgem gets the slp right off the VA/NC coast, the it decides to go straight westward inland 50 miles. Heavy snow doesn't make it above delaware border. PHL won't make 10" on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS should be a solid hit for most of us, but still has the nasty cutoff. Nothing like the NAM, obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS should be a solid hit for most of us, but still has the nasty cutoff. Nothing like the NAM, obviously let it play out. it is coming north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Maybe it will be like this... Ha love it. I've been trying to convey that issue in this entire thread: These storms tend to give nice surprises in the nowcasting stage. NOT saying it's 1996 redux, but rather I there's some twists and turns in here yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 let it play out. it is coming north it is north of 12z i agree, my point was it is still nothing like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 RGEM is actually a decent SEPA hit...still snowing after 54 hours. 18z GFS big SE PA hit. The hits continue. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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