anthonyweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Upstate PA gets some love this run. RedSky, this run should make u very happy. Makes me happy sir Wiggum. Although Redsky is right its the NAM. Is there any chance it got the track correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Dryslot....too far north and east for us This is a good run for our area, i don't care about the QPF we know the NAM is overdoing it with the north track, but maybe at least it is sniffing a trend North. I won't sweat dryslots on the NAM at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 this is why you don't even pay attention to the NAM outside 24 hours. It takes subtle convective nuances and turns them into different outcomes on a run to run basis outside of its useful 24hr window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This is a good run for our area, i don't care about the QPF we know the NAM is overdoing it with the north track, but maybe at least it is sniffing a trend North. I won't sweat dryslots on the NAM at this stage. Give me a compromise of the northern hi-res models with the southern globals and I think PHL is in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Actually the nam is getting into it's range now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I am still unsure what all these models indicate as far as approximate start time. I have a 6am hockey game on Saturday.....a day ago I thought it was a lock that it would be cancelled but now not so sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 this is why you don't even pay attention to the NAM outside 24 hours. It takes subtle convective nuances and turns them into different outcomes on a run to run basis outside of its useful 24hr window. What different outcomes??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LehighValleyDad Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If you compare the 12Z NAM with the 18Z NAM, the closed 500mb low is at least 100 miles further north at 18Z. I believe that was a big part of the difference which allowed this run to push that razor edge cutoff north. Will be interesting to watch the 18Z GFS at 500mb to see if this it the start of something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 In reality, all we need are the winds...I'd like to see gusts above 40mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAMmed yet again! Not gonna happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 What different outcomes???Thinking same question. Aside from today's 18z any changes last 24 hours have been negligible on the NAM. And as expected, it is coming back to reality wrt snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAMmed yet again! Not gonna happen!Which part? The adjustment North or the high QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The WPC tossed the 12z NAM. Wonder if they'll do the same for this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Snow map of 12k nam vs 4k nam is almost comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Most mets in both the MA and NY forums agree the NAM easily too far north by a good 50 miles or more. It has no support at all there even from other hi res models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM did very well for 2/6/2010 with confluence and suppression not sure why it's been so far north with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Done with my workout looks like the NAM is up to it's old tricks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Snow map of 12k nam vs 4k nam is almost comical. That's a good catch. It looks a lot like what we've seen from other morning models (aside from the NAM, of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 QPF of course! Which part? The adjustment North or the high QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 HI RES NAM looks more realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Mitchel Volk and snowgoose aren't so quick to dismiss the Nam yet. Yeah the qpf is wack, but they are watching it closely. Id like forky to weigh in on this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Then you have the 4k Nam. High Point, NJ gets 2' or 0" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Makes no sense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Makes no sense... High res nam has a better handle of the confluence, dry air to the north cutting the percip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What different outcomes??? 12z to 18z are very different. I'm generally speaking about the qpf field it depicts. You can't look at the nam outside 24 hrs and rely on it PERIOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yea the 4k nam matches the rest of the guidance pretty well. I'd be shocked if the GFS waivers much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NWS lowered totals in Blizzard Watch to 10 - 16. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.