RedSky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The down trend all started with the 18z GFS yesterday. I have seen that before and I hate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 North trend? every model for 6 days has slammed the MA with no exceptions. I've never seen a storm more locked into an area. Oh, I know but tell some of the MA members that. They are panicking and fearing a last minute shift/shaft. Understandable tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I really think you're in pretty good shape currently...location. Plus, there's nothing like a great storm in your own back yard. Just not the same to see a storm and it not be at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 15z SREF def jumped N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 N. of Pike in the NYC forum mentioned something about the low not stalling off the SE VA coast, therefore reducing snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think if you blended all the models you'd get a 8-14" for Philly...with isolated more...There is going to be a lot of mesoscale banding with this one.... OT; Does anyone want to storm chase with me" I need an answer ASAP. Looking for someone to split hotel/motel costs. I'd pay for gas unless you drive then I'd split. PM me. I'd leave tomorrow morning like 11am ish. PM me ! just to play devils advocate a little, a blend of all the models would give you more than 8-14 in PHL itself. In fact, I don't think a single model is under a foot. Even the Euro/GGEM are about 14 inches, and GFS/NAM/UKMET all more. Not saying it won't end up 8-14, just as of now it is more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Weenie suicide watch in effect. NAM will almost undoubtedly come in drier. Track could still be good and totals still significant, yet people will be jumping from bridges because they don't see the 30" totals anymore this run and start automatically assuming a bust. It is almost inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 15z SREF def jumped N Not surprised. They have been leaning/ticking North in baby steps past 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Isn't there a reason the Euro got the nickname "Dr. No?" Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If the storm is delayed and comes in later, does that mean it leaves later then too, i.e., resulting in the same amount of hours of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 People are starting to "lose it".... I haven't moved a shovel this year....it's probably dusty? This is good..things are OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 what's interesting is that the low has been closing off sooner in most of the model runs, but the storm is not really coming north. This is when I wish we had a met in our subforum, I'd like to know the reasons why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 People are starting to "lose it".... I haven't moved a shovel this year....it's probably dusty? This is good..things are OK. Agreed, between MA and NYC the entire americanwx server is about to implode! Wow, you would think all the models went ots at the last second lol instead of blizzard watches and warnings from DC to LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If the storm is delayed and comes in later, does that mean it leaves later then too, i.e., resulting in the same amount of hours of snow? Actually no it's a big reason qpf is being reduced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 People are starting to "lose it".... I haven't moved a shovel this year....it's probably dusty? This is good..things are OK. I got my gas tank filled yesterday and filled the blower literally as the 18z GFS started running, I was that confident in the big storm scenario up here another kiss of death lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The final nails haven't been hammered yet. Let's see how things trend..... And w00t, 100 posts, all absolutely pointless lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 SREF's at 11.5 inch average for PHL, some whiffs still, but it is up from the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think if you blended all the models you'd get a 8-14" for Philly...with isolated more...There is going to be a lot of mesoscale banding with this one.... OT; Does anyone want to storm chase with me" I need an answer ASAP. Looking for someone to split hotel/motel costs. I'd pay for gas unless you drive then I'd split. PM me. I'd leave tomorrow morning like 11am ish. PM me ! edit: mods feel free to move to banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 edit: mods feel free to move to banter I don't think we have Mods here...nor Mets. Bunch of nomads... NAM incoming.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What did I miss? Is there any model with less than 12 inches for Philadelphia? Isn't the range around 12 inches on the Euro and CMC, and more than 2 feet on the NAM? Does the RGEM also have high totals, as does the UKMET? GFS is 18+ right? Now I'm hearing 8-14? Unless something on the majority of models have changed significantly, I would predict 12-18 inches for Philadelphia and it's immediate burbs, with isolated higher amounts in banding. Did I miss something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What did I miss? Is there any model with less than 12 inches for Philadelphia? Isn't the range around 12 inches on the Euro and CMC, and more than 2 feet on the NAM? Does the RGEM also have high totals, as does the UKMET? GFS is 18+ right? Now I'm hearing 8-14? Unless something on the majority of models have changed significantly, I would predict 12-18 inches for Philadelphia and it's immediate burbs, with isolated higher amounts in banding. Did I miss something? It's possible you missed the gradient north of the city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's possible you missed the gradient north of the city... Ah, I'll be staying in Center City and I also believe this storm will verify a bit further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 PHL is actually in the southern most point of "Philly". With this storm it might as well be in a complete different state compared to northern suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM is on it's way and as Scotty says "the shields can't take another big hit" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 PHL is actually in the southern most point of "Philly". With this storm it might as well be in a complete different state compared to northern suburbs. How Northern are you talking about? Are the immediate N+W Suburbs close enough to PHL for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlsnowman24 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM looks exactly the same at 21h vs. 27h at 12z at the suface, haven't checked other levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How Northern are you talking about? Are the immediate N+W Suburbs close enough to PHL for this storm? It is close enough but the precip cut off is pretty dramatic and has been dropping south regularly over the last few runs (except for the nam). I'm 25 miles NE of PHL, and on the last run PHL got 12" and I was about 5". I'm closer to areas getting 2-3" than I am to PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 27 hrs H5 ridge a touch better out West. Confluence a hair farther North, Upper low a smidge North but overall trof digging more. SLP about same position, maybe just a touch faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 ULL isnt closed off at 30 but trof in general is digging more this run. We'll see what it means in later panels if anything. Ridging out ahead is a tad less. 1000mb slp over Wilmington, NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 36 hrs - 994mb slp inside of OBX. Faster solution and farther N and W than 12Z. Light-moderate snows across Southern PA. ULL low closed off near Eastern Tennessee, hair farther N and E of 12z position. Confluence lifting out a touch faster. DC-Richmond getting crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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