Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 We have most of the global models trending towards a big hit in our area. The hi Res short range are screaming major hit. The Ukie came North and is a big hit. I know the Euro is the King, but I'm not sure it is on the same page right now with other guidance. Could be the one model that actually is handling this the best so who knows. After last January, I don't tend to trust the Euro when its by itself as much as I used to in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 We have most of the global models trending towards a big hit in our area. The hi Res short range are screaming major hit. The Ukie came North and is a big hit. I know the Euro is the King, but I'm not sure it is on the same page right now with other guidance. Could be the one model that actually is handling this the best so who knows. After last January, I don't tend to trust the Euro when its by itself as much as I used to in the past. Euro and Canadian are a lot alike, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So...In the berks county area...I am thinking 3-6 now? You gotta let it play out. Follow the next couple runs and you'll see if a pattern is forming. North or south....it's starting to get crunch time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 maybe things have changed, but i believe the Euro verifies best at this range out of all models. im open to contradictory information Used to be 72-96 but this may have changed with the upgrade last year, so I retract my statement saying u were incorrect. This is open for debate. Anyone verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm just repeating what i read in the MA forum, and Ian mentions that he is curious how the double barreled low has affected this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 maybe things have changed, but i believe the Euro verifies best at this range out of all models. im open to contradictory information I think I heard the same in regards to the global models. From here on I am going to concentrate on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Euro and Canadian are a lot alike, no?GGEM qpf is misleading. Surface and upper features suggest otherwise IMO. The surface low really tries to stick back near the coast on the GGEM. I call it a near or partial capture, but that is debatable I suppose. Euro looks to do the center jump thing. I think the deep convection out over the Gulf Stream is really wreaking havoc on the globals models. They don't know where to place the slp. Some have 3 or 4 centers. I'm leaning towards the higher resolution models at this range. Not hugging them, but using them for better guidance and handling of key features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GGEM qpf is misleading. Surface and upper features suggest otherwise IMO. The surface low really tries to stick back near the coast on the GGEM. I call it a near or partial capture, but that is debatable I suppose. Euro looks to do the center jump thing. I think the deep convection out over the Gulf Stream is really wreaking havoc on the globals models. They don't know where to place the slp. Some have 3 or 4 centers. I'm leaning towards the higher resolution models at this range. Not hugging them, but using them for better guidance and handling of key features. Euro has multiple lows...i know the canadian has gone that route in other runs, i have to look at it again. Interestingly, qpf down across the board on the Euro, I'm wondering if the result of having multiple lows is that a lot of the best moisture is being robbed offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Euro has multiple lows...i know the canadian has gone that route in other runs, i have to look at it again. Interestingly, qpf down across the board on the Euro, I'm wondering if the result of having multiple lows is that a lot of the best moisture is being robbed offshore.Could very well be. Whether it is right or wrong, I don't think we truly resolve this 100% until Saturday. Its like a see-saw....the models are going to struggle with that convective feature. As u said could rob moisture and jump the low center away in a hurry or the convection is a non factor and the slp hangs back closer to the coast. Difference between a SECS and a HECS IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The Euro is almost always the driest model out there and yes I agree with Ian that the Euro usually backs off significantly on qpf as it gets closer in to an event. As long as the general track is the same then I think we're fine. I also agree that we are actually in the better wheelhouse now of the hi-res models versus globals like the Euro. We are like 35 hours out now or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Other models also have had multiple lows, is this from poor capture issues...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Could very well be. Whether it is right or wrong, I don't think we truly resolve this 100% until Saturday. Its like a see-saw....the models are going to struggle with that convective feature. As u said could rob moisture and jump the low center away in a hurry or the convection is a non factor and the slp hangs back closer to the coast. Difference between a SECS and a HECS IMO. I think at least for PHL and immediate burbs, we are good for a MECS. I would bet against a HECS, I just think the very best stuff stays south, but 15 inches or so definitely on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think tonight's 0Z run will be the make or break on this storm, time to go to the basement and work out for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Irishbri FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I haven't seen today's NAM...is it still calling for the crazy high numbers that it was showing last night? I see the SREF plum for RDG is around 10 inches. How reliable are these? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Other models also have had multiple lows, is this from poor capture issues...? Several factors causing guidance to struggle with slp and number of lows. Confluence attempting to halt Northward progress, ridge flattening out West trying to kick everything East, NAO going neutral trying to fight confluence and pull North, convection over gulf stream trying to jump slp center, low trying to occlude and stay tucked near coast. Its like a balancing act. Still think we in SE PA are in a good spot. Not sure the somber mood past hour based on the Euro op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Irishbri FTW! ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Irishbri FTW! Do tell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Several factors causing guidance to struggle with slp and number of lows. Confluence attempting to halt Northward progress, ridge flattening out West trying to kick everything East, NAO going neutral trying to fight confluence and pull North, convection over gulf stream trying to jump slp center, low trying to occlude and stay tucked near coast. Its like a balancing act. Still think we in SE PA are in a good spot. Not sure the somber mood past hour based on the Euro op? Thanks Ralph...I'm okay with things as they stand now since all we have to do is get underneath mesoscale banding and I'd like the wind to verify... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 ? His comment to DT it's great....in the MA forum...lol. Dt wanted to know why RIC isn't under a blizzard watch when NYC was since nyc was only getting 3-6 inches of snow and irishbri told dt that snow accumlation isnt a requirement for a blizzard. I enjoyed this since dt is all over people for their errors...and he should know that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think the somber mood is based on the ggem and euro. That precip gradient is getting WAY too close for comfort (and down right inappropriate for some).If the NAM stays the course we make out, if the slp has issues capturing and coming north like globals are showing quite a few in this forum might be hoping to bust high just to make it to Mount Holly's current minimums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think the somber mood is based on the ggem and euro. That precip gradient is getting WAY too close for comfort (and down right inappropriate for some). If the NAM stays the course we make out, if the slp has issues capturing and coming north like globals are showing quite a few in this forum might be hoping to bust high just to make it to Mount Holly's current minimums. I take it you are a stones throw from the oxford valley mall.....correct. We are in a good spot as long as the wind verifies who cares if we only see a foot of snow. If it's as intense as it could be, it wont matter and you'll love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 His comment to DT it's great....in the MA forum...lol. Dt wanted to know why RIC isn't under a blizzard watch when NYC was since nyc was only getting 3-6 inches of snow and irishbri told dt that snow accumlation isnt a requirement for a blizzard. I enjoyed this since dt is all over people for their errors...and he should know that Can't find it. What I did find however are people in MA jumping off bridges due to the North trend. Yet in NYC they are jumping off bridges due to South trend. Puts us in a good spot really! :-D Sent from my XT603 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Can't find it. What I did find however are people in MA jumping off bridges due to the North trend. Yet in NYC they are jumping off bridges due to South trend. Puts us in a good spot really! :-D Sent from my XT603 using Tapatalk 2 It may have been deleted....ill see if i can find it EDIT: begins at post#1332 in the old thread...they started a new one look for thread #3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Listening to some Tom Petty atm, and I Won't Back Down just came on. I find that totally appropriate.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think if you blended all the models you'd get a 8-14" for Philly...with isolated more...There is going to be a lot of mesoscale banding with this one.... OT; Does anyone want to storm chase with me" I need an answer ASAP. Looking for someone to split hotel/motel costs. I'd pay for gas unless you drive then I'd split. PM me. I'd leave tomorrow morning like 11am ish. PM me ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think if you blended all the models you'd get a 8-14" for Philly...with isolated more...There is going to be a lot of mesoscale banding with this one.... OT; Does anyone want to storm chase with me" I need an answer ASAP. Looking for someone to split hotel/motel costs. I'd pay for gas unless you drive then I'd split. PM me. I'd leave tomorrow morning like 11am ish. PM me ! Where u thinking of heading? I'm actually fairly content where I'm at but just curious as to where you see 'ground zero'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's funny that NBC10 very conservative looking snow map they had out yesterday against guidance looks good. Hurricane ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think if you blended all the models you'd get a 8-14" for Philly...with isolated more...There is going to be a lot of mesoscale banding with this one.... OT; Does anyone want to storm chase with me" I need an answer ASAP. Looking for someone to split hotel/motel costs. I'd pay for gas unless you drive then I'd split. PM me. I'd leave tomorrow morning like 11am ish. PM me ! I really think you're in pretty good shape currently...location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Can't find it. What I did find however are people in MA jumping off bridges due to the North trend. Yet in NYC they are jumping off bridges due to South trend. Puts us in a good spot really! :-D Sent from my XT603 using Tapatalk 2 North trend? every model for 6 days has slammed the MA with no exceptions. I've never seen a storm more locked into an area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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