Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Guys/ladies. Philly area is going to get smoked. Silly at this point to think it will be a bust. Unsure why Im quoted with a reply stating to stop thinking bust, but whatevs. Contrary to 1 or 2 posters' perception, I havent really wavered from this storm at all....certainly not now. There was one run of the Euro 3 days ago which I admittedly did get discouraged but never tossed in the towel. Expectations have been tempered since late last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Glenn going w/10+ for the Philly area (including local burbs)...6+ further N. David Murphey (Ch6/accu-weather) going w/ 12-18" right over Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Glenn going w/10+ for the Philly area (including local burbs)...6+ further N. David Murphey (Ch6/accu-weather) going w/ 12-18" right over Philly. For tv Mets, it is most likely easier to add than subtract amounts. This way they can say the storm is responsible rather than a forecasting error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Glenn going w/10+ for the Philly area (including local burbs)...6+ further N. David Murphey (Ch6/accu-weather) going w/ 12-18" right over Philly. That's odd - normally ABC plays it very conservatively and NBC tends to trend bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Seems like a past midnight/overnight hours (Sat) start time in and around Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Forky calls it as it is. He gets heat for it, but he is a good met. Very respectable guy in that subforum. Ralph, I'll take his guidance over anyone else except a few in the ma and he forum. And that's only a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Seems like a past midnight/overnight hours (Sat) start time in and around Philly? Yes, and with that...I imagine we'll see a lot of panic on the obs forums because the precip is really going to crawl into our region.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Slightly north. That difference is the world for a lot of people if this were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yes, and with that...I imagine we'll see a lot of panic on the obs forums because the precip is really going to crawl into our region.... I get the feeling it's really going to "crawl" to get into here 3am+....."bust" comments galore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 State of emergency issued for PA....some sort of news conference at 2:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Slightly north. That difference is the world for a lot of people if this were to verify. You are missing part of the event on the 12Z map. This is at 72 hrs\\EDIT - I see you are showing through 0Z 1/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Baltimore and DC are now Blizzard warning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If you have'nt already seen it look at Baroclinic Zone's post in the NE thred (#3269). He talks about center jumping on the 12ZGFS vs. GEFS. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NE forum says it definitely did not go north....in fact it was worse for them but not sure what it means for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NE forum says it definitely did not go north....in fact it was worse for them but not sure what it means for us. i think you're golden no matter what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NE forum says it definitely did not go north....in fact it was worse for them but not sure what it means for us. it's ok, better PHL and south obviously, euro a little drier than most other guidance even down in DC, will have qpf for you in a second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 "Euro has low captured but has 3 distinct lows with precip stretched out" per another site. "Something strange about this run". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 about 1.2 in PHL so down some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Zwyts from the MA subforum: a tad drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ian said the euro always tends to reduce qpf prior to storms....not sure if this was tongue in cheek comment or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ian said the euro always tends to reduce qpf prior to storms....not sure if this was tongue in cheek comment or not. it was. this is the euro's deadly range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GD honestly, in my experience the EURO does seem to reduce QPF in the short term...seen it before. H5 looked better early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Zwyts from the MA subforum: a tad drier it is drier for our region, although it looks like the cutoff isn't quite as pronounced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 it was. this is the euro's deadly range. Okay thanks, pray for banding....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GD honestly, in my experience the EURO does seem to reduce QPF in the short term...seen it before. H5 looked better early on I feel like that is a right before the storm thing, i find the euro deadly about 30 hours out. who knows though, there are always exceptions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 it was. this is the euro's deadly range. It usually is. Let's keep any trend negative down to a minimum or stall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 it was. this is the euro's deadly range. That is incorrect. 72-96 hours has always statistically been its "wheelhouse". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So...In the berks county area...I am thinking 3-6 now? Would be quite the disappointment after all the excitement to get an Advisory criteria snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That is incorrect. 72-96 hours has always statistically been its "wheelhouse". maybe things have changed, but i believe the Euro verifies best at this range out of all models. im open to contradictory information Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Euro numbers are supported by GGEM. On the other side, UKMET is actually better for us now. I think 12 inches is a safe and good forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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