hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How is this squasheD.. It's not. See my post above. I knew the moment I saw the open h5 still showing up this was gonna be a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The NAM is really consistent with the cutoff being around or just north of I-80 in NEPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Glad he was wrong on the squashed part. Do we flirt with dryslot issues on this run? Temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's not. See my post above. I knew the moment I saw the open h5 still showing up this was gonna be a big hitAbout what we wanted to see with this run. Some minor noise but a good hit for the region. Really solid run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wow if the NAM is right, we get hit about as hard as DC, considering not much mixing. I am just hoping for the globals to trend towards it. Not counting on the same numbers, but not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 NYC forum likely popping bottles, lol. Where"s Anthony?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 No, it is a dryslot. But we already have 24" on the ground, so we could probably deal. USA_RH_700mb_054.gif No farther north with this please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Some folks saying not a capture. What is tugging the low tight to coast, even slightly West of due North for a time? I may be misreading the model....always looking to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 tidbits showing 16-18" for Philly by hr 60 and still snowing good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks like close to 2' again for most people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yeah, about that under 18" wager I made....house wins big lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 you have been NAMed....not buying what they are selling..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Don't really care about precip totals on this run...I'm just focused on where the northern edge of the heavy snow is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 you have been NAMed....not buying what they are selling.....What Paul? Not buying a run-of-the-mill 24"-36" snowstorm on the NAM? Gotta admire its dedication and consistency anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Too funny - cut that by 50% which is not unusual for the NAM - it will probably start back down to reality by 0z tonight What Paul? Not buying a run-of-the-mill 24"-36" snowstorm on the NAM? Gotta admire its dedication and consistency anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Not buying the probably inflated NAM qpf output, but if its shift in heaviest precip axis verifies, it mimics the late shift North on guidance prior to 96 storm almost to a tee. Not comparing amounts, just the shift N with heaviest axis 36-48 hours or so prior to onset. Rest of 12z suite will be telling. Seatbelt fastened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 We all know we've been NAM'd before. We are used to the qpf bombs on the NAM. However, this makes like 3-4 consecutive runs with extreme qpf for part of our area. It is 90% likely it is overdone, but there is always that chance as a hi res model it is seeing the banding more accurately than the globals. Look, Im not saying it is right, I am in no way biting on those totals but serious question......at what point do we say hey, maybe the NAM isnt so outlandish? Like 12 hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 We need to see a big improvement in the GFS in like 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Fwiw euroP Is 10 miles north of OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 We all know we've been NAM'd before. We are used to the qpf bombs on the NAM. However, this makes like 3-4 consecutive runs with extreme qpf for part of our area. It is 90% likely it is overdone, but there is always that chance as a hi res model it is seeing the banding more accurately than the globals. Look, Im not saying it is right, I am in no way biting on those totals but serious question......at what point do we say hey, maybe the NAM isnt so outlandish? Like 12 hours out?Thought rule of thumb is to take 30% off those totals? Even so your talking a 12-18 storm for everyone in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 We all know we've been NAM'd before. We are used to the qpf bombs on the NAM. However, this makes like 3-4 consecutive runs with extreme qpf for part of our area. It is 90% likely it is overdone, but there is always that chance as a hi res model it is seeing the banding more accurately than the globals. Look, Im not saying it is right, I am in no way biting on those totals but serious question......at what point do we say hey, maybe the NAM isnt so outlandish? Like 12 hours out? Use the NAM to verify/observe dynamics, cut QPF by 50% has always been my MO. Which bodes well for the region anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 We need to see a big improvement in the GFS in like 30 minutes. Disagree. As long as it doesnt shift S and E we are ok. Dont need a major shift to match the NAM....baby steps are fine to try and meet in the middle (GFS/NAM blend). Still have time. Also of note, the GFS OP and Euro OP are theoretically exiting what is considered their wheelhouse. Almost time to put less weight in the globals and more emphasis on shorter range hi res guidance. Though obviously with that said, it doesnt mean we just discount them entirely. Guidance just weighted a little differently at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Disagree. As long as it doesnt shift S and E we are ok. Dont need a major shift to match the NAM....baby steps are fine to try and meet in the middle (GFS/NAM blend). Still have time. Also of note, the GFS OP and Euro OP are theoretically exiting what is considered their wheelhouse. Almost time to put less weight in the globals and more emphasis on shorter range hi res guidance. Though obviously with that said, it doesnt mean we just discount them entirely. Guidance just weighted a little differently at this range. I meant more that we need to see the GFS with temp profiles more in line with other modeling. It had decent precip but we lost 1/3 of it to sleet at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS is rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Most of our area is now under a BLIZZARD watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Most of our area is now under a BLIZZARD watch. Eastern Chesco under the watch, but here in western Chesco not - guess we don't meet wind criteria expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Blizzard of 2016 is coming. Hide yo' kids, hide yo' wife!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Rumor has it that the GFS is fantastic. Time for DT to eat some humble pie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.