Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Sref says what confluence, continues the small ticks N: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Sref says what confluence, continues the small ticks N: It was much farther S Early on...The longer you got out in the run the more spread N there was. So in my eyes it was a shift S from previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Again, continuing the theme of baby steps to the good, srefs still leaning North and are a tick West as well with slp (inside OBX now): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 The confluence should move north along with the height rises.Thanks in part to the NAO trending to neutral as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 So again sorry for the novice question, but is there anything that obviously stands as the reason the GFS "hooks" in with a mix (something that I don't recall seeing on any previous runs)Unsure what you are asking? Are you asking about mixing potential? If so I believe I95 will ultimately be the far West push of any mixing. Others are seeing it differently tho. I still think we need to nail down track as well as capture vs non capture. We still have a little wiggle room wrt onset but we are getting nearer to crunch time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 We really need to see the GFS back off on the sleet notion today at 12z to rest a little easier. I would also like to continue to see the shorter range models showing more of a front end thump as we get more in their useful range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 For what it is worth the NAM has initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Over/under on NAM snowfall output for PHL on 12z run set at 18" per inside tip from Vegas ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 We really need to see the GFS back off on the sleet notion today at 12z to rest a little easier. I would also like to continue to see the shorter range models showing more of a front end thump as we get more in their useful range. Yeah, ugh, I don't like that northern Delaware up to about Philly gets real warm on the GFS. But as the NWS says, it is only the GFS showing it that warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yeah, ugh, I don't like that northern Delaware up to about Philly gets real warm on the GFS. But as the NWS says, it is only the GFS showing it that warm. Every other model has us just cold enough to support all snow. Its a matter of getting the precip in here. I am seriously just confused about the persistence of a qpf gap between BWI and the CNJ shore......its annoying to continually see. All of SEPA is in it too. I guess we're just too far east to cash in on the front end but then too far west to get into the good bands from the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 For what it is worth the NAM has initialized. We are within the 36 hour range so here is to hoping some of the bigger amounts spread northward on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Over/under on NAM snowfall output for PHL on 12z run set at 18" per inside tip from Vegas ;-) Under, the previous runs were a little overzealous to be realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 UnderDitto. Riding the under for a dollar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Thru 24 hours there are no negligible changes on the NAM except with qpf developing down South. It is more expansive and generally heavier vs 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 30 hours minor differences some would call 'noise'. ULL maybe 30 miles farther South, ridging out ahead not quite as strong as 6z. Nothing devastating, we will see what, if any, differences that makes later in run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 36 hours - negligible differences aloft or at surface vs 6z imo. ULL in exact same spot. Slightly less ridging out front. However, precip shield a bit more expansive and a little heavier overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 39 hours - trof axis going negative, energy digging into backside of trough. QPF impressive. Really digging now. Precip on doorstep. If this gets picked up and comes north again this run, im going to lose my bet on the under (see earlier post). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's still going to be much further north compared to the GFS with an open h5 like it is showing that late in the run. I hope it is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 36 hours - negligible differences aloft or at surface vs 6z imo. ULL in exact same spot. Slightly less ridging out front. However, precip shield a bit more expansive and a little heavier overall. Compared to 27 hr 06Z it seems a little faster then 33 HR 12Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 to me at hr 36 the 250 mb map looks a little better than 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 39 slp emerging near Wilmington, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 H5 finally closed at 42. Light precip in SEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 42 hrs - Precip fighting dry air on North side. Flow backing significantly along coast. Looks to be coming North again. Wouldnt expect 6z qpf bombs but track and trends....track and trends this run. Gfs and Nam will converge next 36 hrs imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 45 surface low moves due north. Light to mod precip in all of s pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Never good when the start time continually gets delayed. To me it reaks that we miss out on the big front end thump and then have to rely on tricky dynamics of the coastal. I mean when is this thing now predicted to begin snowing on us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 A met in the MA forum said the whole thing looks more compressed to him which means not as good north of Mason Dixon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 48 hrs - CRUSHED!! Looks heavier than 6z at same hour lol. Slp captured and near DelMarVa. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 How is this squashed? Losing my under wager.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 48 sim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Watch the h5 panels all day today on GFS and NAM. If the NAM starts close sooner, game over. If GFS start to close later, game on. It's just that simple in this setup. Confluence is not the main driver. A bowling ball h5 is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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