Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 0Z Monday op GFS thru 96 hrs has closed 500 Low over ne TX- Not over MISSOURI or OH like 12z GFS -- HIUGE shift south very good news for those wanting the last several european model runs / EPS to verify Please explain Dave. I thought this 'issue'/bias was resolved with the latest GFS upgrade last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 GFS says Euro solution may have legs. South at first but ends up in a great spot for most ppl here. Game on! Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 3-4' in Maryland. Not inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Wow. all I have to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 0z GFS brings r/s line into PHL though... Looks real good for inland.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 DC couldn't deal with 10" of snow well. If even close to this they might shut down the city for a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 0z GFS brings r/s line into PHL though... Looks real good for inland.. Yeah, only about 6 inches on the run there. Hopefully in the end we spread the wealth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It's just one run, and it's probably overamped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GGEM mirrors the GFS, slightly higher amounts in SEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 0z GFS brings r/s line into PHL though... Looks real good for inland..Too early to talk specifics. Yes, all major winter storms usually involve some mixing along I95 at best, but it is way to early to begin talking r/s lines regarding this threat. Only thing we should take away from this run is that the signal for a major hit for our region is still there....in a big way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'm getting a little excited.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Major shift south 0z ECM. Cuts 12z totals in half Philly north sharp cutoff northern areas ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Major shift south 0z ECM. Cuts 12z totals in half Philly north sharp cutoff northern areas ugh It's an issue of a less expansive precip shield. That type of thing can change. We still get about a foot unless well N&W from what I heard, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Major shift south 0z ECM. Cuts 12z totals in half Philly north sharp cutoff northern areas ugh Sharp cutoff yeah but 20"+ for i95 Was/PHL/NYC. NEPA gets cutoff but still a great run for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z ECM had 20" in Wilkes Barre! it's a hundred mile shift south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 You're way to nervous 5 days out.... 0z EC KPHL, 2.08", 26.9" KMIV, 2.40", 26.3" KABE, 1.05", 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It is 5 days out plenty of time for details to change. As long as this is some kind of significant storm, I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 You're way to nervous 5 days out.... 0z EC KPHL, 2.08", 26.9" KMIV, 2.40", 26.3" KABE, 1.05", 14.0" Is the QPF accurate I must have seen an incorrect map, still a shift south of 50 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Looks like 26" if my weenie eyes are correct for Media Delaware County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Is the QPF accurate I must have seen an incorrect map, still a shift south of 50 miles An NWS met on accuweather forums said he thought if anything, it will trend back NW. At least the EURO is consistent on keeping the cold air in... we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Is the QPF accurate I must have seen an incorrect map, still a shift south of 50 miles It's a big world we live on... What's 50 miles 5 days out!? Enjoy this... http://www.phillywx.com/index.php?/topic/577-model-disc-thread/page-15#entry31406 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It's a big world we live on... What's 50 miles 5 days out!? Enjoy this... http://www.phillywx.com/index.php?/topic/577-model-disc-thread/page-15#entry31406 I had an old run too wtf lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I had an old run too wtf lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Holy Moly! How do u forecast for that map verbatim? "Around 2 feet of snow with 36" or greater lollipops". Or do u just go with "2-3 feet with isolated higher amounts"? Geez Louise! Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Lol, 6" on GFS and ~36 inch jackpot on EURO. PA vs NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 6z GFS is caving to the Euro somewhat. Colder and more SE then 0z... Jackpot over SEPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Just looked at 6z. Went from 6 to 16 inches. Widespread 1-2'+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 6z GFS is a thing of beauty...widespread 1.5-2.5 foot totals. T-minus approx 36 hours before I bite on this monster and go all-in though. I am still VERY wary of a major shift though the fact it appears as widespread as it is and the overwhelming agreement among guidance is certainly giving me a warm, fuzzy feeling attm. Cautiously optimistic. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The se trend by the Euro needs to stop. That was a pretty huge shift at 0z. I'm on the verge of getting fringed. Gfs and cmc are a little more safe but I'd feel better if the euro was backing them... Either way this is about 24 hours from a red alert. Pretty cool to see by how close to the edge everyone was just a few short days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 The se trend by the Euro needs to stop. That was a pretty huge shift at 0z. I'm on the verge of getting fringed. Gfs and cmc are a little more safe but I'd feel better if the euro was backing them... Either way this is about 24 hours from a red alert. Pretty cool to see by how close to the edge everyone was just a few short days ago. If it is any consolation, the normally progressive NAVGEM is an inside runner with quite a bit non-frozen: I suppose what I am saying is, until we have a clearer picture of the track maybe by 12Z Wed/0Z Thurs, I would take any shifts with a grain of salt. At that time, I would start watching for clear trends, but still a little early to get concerned one way or the other. Plus, do you think you are going to remain in the bullseye for the next 7-8 Euro runs with zero fluctuation? Hang in there.....steady as she goes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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