Heisy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 why is this a blip run? it looks a lot like 12z, and a lot like the GFS as well. It still has right around a foot for PHL, which seems like a pretty good forecast as of now. (also in step with GEFS and the canadian ensembles). It could still be higher, and if i had to go over or under 12 inches i guess i would go over, but this is in step with a lot of the guidance. GD I was going off of Stormvista snowfall maps...here is the image I see.... Stormvista clearly has Philly in the 4-6" range for totals.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here's another Euro snow map. Same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Weird? Stormvista has Philly in the 4-6" range, but I'm seeing all over that Philly gets 12-18" on this run, wtf? I'm definitely still seeing 12+ for Philly/local burbs. Lehigh people may get screwed pretty bad....still think there is room for improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Does anyone have a wind profile map? Curious to see what the sustained winds, and gusts, look like. I guess I'm also wondering why Baltimore/DC is under a blizzard watch, and we're under a winter storm watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 PHL qpf about 1.5, definitely a sharp cutoff as you head N and W tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here's another Euro snow map. Same thing. That is only out to 72 hrs go out to 96 hrs has 20" in and around philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Latest sref again ticked North a hair with slp placement with even more spread to the North, so really leaning North now. Also brings heaviest precip axis across Southeast PA including NW Burbs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Is it a WSW (watch) or WSW (warning)? Just woke up...falling asleep/listening to 94WIP and they said "warning" in their break update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 here is out to 96hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 6z nam thru 30 slightly (a hair?) farther N with slp placement. At 500mb the low is closing off, the entire trough is already going negative tilt. Ridging pronounced along East Coast. I could be wrong extrapolating the NAM but it looks like it is coming North again this run. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This may be good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlsnowman24 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Should be another monster hit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Cant believe Im doing pbp on a 6z NAM run but I cant sleep. 48 hrs low slightly better defined just emerging slightly East of Wilmington, NC. 500mb trough has gone negative tilt with more energy digging into back of trough. Coming North again. QPF relatively unchanged thru 48, maybe slightly more widespread coverage N and W of entire precip shield. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hr 54 - moderate snow southern pa with lighter snows upstate Hr 60 - southern particularly se pa getting hit hard. Heavy snow. Slp ticked North again this run. ULL attempting a capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlsnowman24 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM is going to have close to 2' over PHL for the 6z run...WHY AM I STILL UP haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hr 63-66 - Crushed. More expansive widespread heavy snows. Low captured. Dare I say the "b" word? Annihilated this run! Crippling snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hr 69 - Heavy snow PHL-NYC! Both metros paralyzed with blizzard conditions. Low captured but trying to slowly head NE, dual low structure. Much more realistic look than a sudden 300 mile center jump imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hr 72 - Moderate to heavy snow as PHL-SNE sit under CCB. I know its the NAM but amazing run for many! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hrs 75-78 - Lighter snows PHL-NYC, things winding down here. BOS getting snows, real close to a good hit even that far North. Low rotting off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Remember, this is the NAM beyond 48 hours....means nothing, but so fun to look @. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 81 hrs - Light snow PHL 84 hrs - Flurries PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 We all know this won't verify, but this snowmap needs to be framed and hung on a wall. It's just epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Remember, this is the NAM beyond 48 hours....means nothing, but so fun to look @.Agreed, taken with grain of salt. Have to admire its consistency tho. Has support from some other hi res guidance in terms of capture and farther N track tho. Even thru 30 hrs, which is a respectable time range for the NAM, you could see the big hit coming at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Remember, this is the NAM beyond 48 hours....means nothing, but so fun to look @. It will mean something when it runs 18 hrs from now so hopefully the "north jog" is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM qpf totals: Cut those amounts by half and most here still celebrate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It will mean something when it runs 18 hrs from now so hopefully the "north jog" is still there. I really think it will be there...maybe not huge but still there. "Picked the wrong week"....to stop following models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 "Picked the wrong week"....to stop following models. I picked the wrong week to start wanting a snowstorm again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Blizzard watches hoisted for NYC and LI. We are sandwiched between blizz watches with winter storm watches. Just a matter of time.... Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I picked the wrong week to start wanting a snowstorm again... I feel bad for you folks up there....still have a good shot...and wind. You guys used to smoke us in the lower parts of Philly. Meh...who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 "Winter storm "Watch"....12-18" possible. (4:14am) http://tinyurl.com/jnxp9x9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.