Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 And what if it drops further S & E? Walt Whitman bridge....prime jumping areas are still available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Maybe someone who knows better than me can answer this question. While obviously a global model, isnt the GGEM considered hi resolution or one of, if not the highest resolution of all the LR global models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 We need Ray to come here just once and pacify us all. He is the only one we'll listen too... The natives are getting restless in here and most of us are living and dying with each model run. I haven't waffled once since monday, not about to based on one model run...again. it seems one model run has everyone running for the hills again. still think 14-18+ will verify. bump troll all you want after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Met on Phillywx is saying he thinks its good news GFS looks weird. Seems like a fair assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 I haven't waffled once since monday, not about to based on one model run...again. it seems one model run has everyone running for the hills again. still think 14-18+ will verify. bump troll all you want after the storm.Ditto, not budging. I have a rather broad range of 12-24" for my area. Low end verifies with no capture, high end verifies with capture. That scenario will come down to a nowcast imho. Gave myself plenty of wiggle room but this is a range the local news outlets and even the nws uses, so I'm not ashamed. Good luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ditto, not budging. I have a rather broad range of 12-24" for my area. Low end verifies with no capture, high end verifies with capture. That scenario will come down to a nowcast imho. Gave myself plenty of wiggle room but this is a range the local news outlets and even the nws uses, so I'm not ashamed. Good luck everyone! Yeah, re: Nowcasting.....Don't these storms normally over-perform where nowcasting actually brings a multitude of surprises? Banding/Bombogenesis (look at me using these terms! w00t). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yeah, re: Nowcasting.....Don't these storms normally over-perform where nowcasting actually brings a multitude of surprises? Banding/Bombogenesis (look at me using these terms! w00t).Yes, and this storm looks to be no different. Surprises can go either way tho with nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I haven't waffled once since monday, not about to based on one model run...again. it seems one model run has everyone running for the hills again. still think 14-18+ will verify. bump troll all you want after the storm. Said it pages pages back...I'm going 15" damnit! Euro will be fun though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 And what if it drops further S & E? Then its obviously an outlier and gets tossed ;-) Walt Whitman bridge....prime jumping areas are still available. I haven't waffled once since monday, not about to based on one model run...again. it seems one model run has everyone running for the hills again. still think 14-18+ will verify. bump troll all you want after the storm. Let be said that I've stood by my amateur forecast for RDG through thick and thin (I think). What was it again 7-11" with up 16+ locally, or was it 3-5" ? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 While this euro run is obviously important, I think the overall trends so far from 0z are enough so that even a weird euro run does not negate a solid snow event for the area. In short, the entire outcome of this storm does not solely hinge on what this Euro run shows. There was overhwelming support otherwise for a Northerly tick tonight. Would like to see it nudge tho, no doubt. And as far as someone posting just how consistent the Euro has been, it has been consistently wrong at times in the past. It isnt infallible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I have a feeling the Euro will make people have seizures one way or another (good/bad?).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Since everyone is reporting their guesses on totals, I'm going to say 14-18 for Blue Bell/Horsham/Warminster. It's a bit wishful thinking, and optimistic, but I have a feeling that things will pull through for us. (Watch us get like 6" now lol, sigh). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 going 15-20" here in Three Tuns PA Also, really wish if DT is going to poke in here that he has some positve info instead of searching for posts to rip... This has always been his downfall in the nearly 15 years I've been on these boards! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 going 15-20" here in Three Tuns PA Also, really wish if DT is going to poke in here that he has some positve info instead of searching for posts to rip... This has always been his downfall in the nearly 15 years I've been on these boards! Yeah I think its his coping mechanism. I would love to actually meet his personality in person (I suppose that goes for all of you on here), I think almost all of us are much more easy going in person. The last thirty minutes of this thread should probably be in banter. If this was MA we would be banned from the site by now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Thanks "Walt"....think this is doing good. Further N is good...click on image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Euro is coming North it appears. Fasten your seatbelts, potential good hit coming! Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks like a good solid thump, dual low, but just misses the capture and an epic finish. Still good signs and closer yet to an eventual capture/stall. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Per DT...East...and of course colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Whereas I thought this run was sloppy overall there were some positive takeaways. Passing out now. Nite all! Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks like a good solid thump, dual low, but just misses the capture and an epic finish. Still good signs and closer yet to an eventual capture/stall. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Does this mean we have to stay up for the 12z. HAha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Dare I say....the Euro appears to be a Southern outlier right now? Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Euro delivers a really nice hit to the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Before people panic. I've been following winter storms, comparing model runs to prior model runs over and over for the last 10 years. I have always found that the EURO has blip runs before major storms at times.... Check out the moisture down south on the 00z model, it completely changed the location of the rain, less than 24 hours out! This model isn't the God people think it is....The EURO actually made a big step towards the GGEM, the ULL was stronger & farther N, however at the end of the run it seemed like it had issues with the the energy swinging around the base of the trough. Even though people will probably panic because of this run, I am actually feeling better for our region....I will bet a large amount of $ right now that we see it come back around @ 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foxman30 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Still a solid 12-18 for the KPHL area. We are still in a prime position for totals to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm confused.....blizzardlover just posted contradictory information to what everyone else is reporting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Tombo at Phillywx stated: 5-10 for Philly N+W Burbs Um? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm confused.....blizzardlover just posted contradictory information to what everyone else is reporting? I didn't invent that graphic. Tombo over on phillywx also indicates 12-18" for Philly, SEPA, SNJ, and DE. NW Burbs def look 10+" to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Before people panic. I've been following winter storms, comparing model runs to prior model runs over and over for the last 10 years. I have always found that the EURO has blip runs before major storms at times.... Check out the moisture down south on the 00z model, it completely changed the location of the rain, less than 24 hours out! This model isn't the God people think it is....The EURO actually made a big step towards the GGEM, the ULL was stronger & farther N, however at the end of the run it seemed like it had issues with the the energy swinging around the base of the trough. Even though people will probably panic because of this run, I am actually feeling better for our region....I will bet a large amount of $ right now that we see it come back around @ 12z. why is this a blip run? it looks a lot like 12z, and a lot like the GFS as well. It still has right around a foot for PHL, which seems like a pretty good forecast as of now. (also in step with GEFS and the canadian ensembles). It could still be higher, and if i had to go over or under 12 inches i guess i would go over, but this is in step with a lot of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Weird? Stormvista has Philly in the 4-6" range, but I'm seeing all over that Philly gets 12-18" on this run, wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 2/6/2010 repeat, NEXT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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