lman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Something is wrong with that map...49" in Virginia and 7" in sepa??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nervous for the Euro now. What if it agrees with the GFS? Not sure I buy either the GFS or NAM really. Hopefully we'll get better agreement tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Something is wrong with that map...49" in Virginia and 7" in sepa??? Ah! Good Spot!! (referencing the 49) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Why did they say SEPA and Philly got buried in NYC forum doh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Scary snowfall totals. Wonder how precip totals look though. In the NAM we must trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 cant discount the GFS, the fact is it is more accurate than the NAM at this range. Does it mean it is right? No, but it has to give pause to the higher accumulation totals. Also the warming threat seems real, the euro had it last night too. Should be interesting to follow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Why did they say SEPA and Philly got buried in NYC forum doh my guess is they didn't notice the temp issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 More realistic than the NAM. I wouldn't worry about taint until we see tomorrows runs and start looking at more of the mesoscale models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 People freaking out again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Something is wrong with that map...49" in Virginia and 7" in sepa???And we thought the NAM was overdone with 3' but not a soul is questioning a 4'+ total from the gfs? Must be right then ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Scratch that, somehow got linked to 18z qpf map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 gfs00Z_1-20-16.png More realistic than the NAM. I wouldn't worry about taint until we see tomorrows runs and start looking at more of the mesoscale models. I believe that is actually a bit higher than 18z. QPF is fine; there were warming issues this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 cant discount the GFS, the fact is it is more accurate than the NAM at this range. Does it mean it is right? No, but it has to give pause to the higher accumulation totals. Also the warming threat seems real, the euro had it last night too. Should be interesting to follow tomorrow.I agree with this BUT we are discounting the NAMs high accum totals yet accepting the gfs totals that are even higher? Something isnt adding up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I agree with this BUT we are discounting the NAMs high accum totals yet accepting the gfs totals that are even higher? oh i dont buy 48 inches for west VA either. my guess is the truth is somewhere in the middle, with a leaning to the gfs side because it is a better model at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 I believe that is actually a bit higher than 18z. QPF is fine; there were warming issues this run.Agreed. I think at H5 we actually took a baby step in the right direction. Whether or not that holds and transfers down to the surface in subsequent runs is yet tbd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Qpf still around 2" for PHL which is good. A lot of it is wasted on sleet per GFS which may or may not be right. Thermals should get clearer tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 oh i dont buy 48 inches for west VA either. my guess is the truth is somewhere in the middle, with a leaning to the gfs side because it is a better model at this range.Makes sense and reasonable thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 gfs00Z_1-20-16.png More realistic than the NAM. I wouldn't worry about taint until we see tomorrows runs and start looking at more of the mesoscale models. BETTER - the pivotal maps seem to have issues with warm layers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I agree with this BUT we are discounting the NAMs high accum totals yet accepting the gfs totals that are even higher? Something isnt adding up. NYC forum says there may have been convective feedback due to the 6 inch total precip being seen. Do you agree? I am learning on these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Very confused. The tropical tidbits map above is showing a solid 12-18" for Philly, SEPA, and Northern DE. The pivotalweather.com map is showing more like 6-10" region wide. Is there something screwed up with one or the other? Is the map with the larger totals counting rainfall as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 well the canadian should cheer people up....looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 We need Ray to come here just once and pacify us all. He is the only one we'll listen too... The natives are getting restless in here and most of us are living and dying with each model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Very confused. The tropical tidbits map above is showing a solid 12-18" for Philly, SEPA, and Northern DE. The pivotalweather.com map is showing more like 6-10" region wide. Is there something screwed up with one or the other? Is the map with the larger totals counting rainfall as i would have to look at the temperature profiles in depth but i find it hard to believe that with the qpf the GFS is spitting out that we would only see 7 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 I agree with this BUT we are discounting the NAMs high accum totals yet accepting the gfs totals that are even higher? Something isnt adding up.[/quoteNYC forum says there may have been connective feedback due to the 6 inch total precip being seen. Do you agree? I am learning on these things. I do agree with the deep convection offshore skewing the slp track. Again, I dont recall ever seeing a 990ish mb slp take a 300 mile jump in just a few hours with the original low that was getting captured merely vanishing like that. The higher resolution models are not showing this center jump, at least so quickly nor to that extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 We need Ray to come here just once and pacify us all. He is the only one we'll listen too... The natives are getting restless in here and most of us are living and dying with each model run. All of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 We need Ray to come here just once and pacify us all. He is the only one we'll listen too... The natives are getting restless in here and most of us are living and dying with each model run. honestly, the GFS isn't so bad, just not ridiculous high totals like NAM< i think PHL area still looks good for 12 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlsnowman24 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If it makes people feel any better the GGEM is an absolute crushing for the PHL area based on the B&W maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Where is the other NWS forecaster that used to hang around here I think his tag was GMorse or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 We need Ray to come here just once and pacify us all. He is the only one we'll listen too... The natives are getting restless in here and most of us are living and dying with each model run. Consensus is still a 12-18" event imo unless the ECM bounces again, NAM just fantasy in the early going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 CMC at 66... kaboom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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