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January 22-23 Storm Threat


Ralph Wiggum

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Like I said in another forum, better then watching it slide off to the south.

Yeah, but if it had I could then go to sleep peacefully knowing it was over.  Now the GFS better be definitive so I can go to sleep either confident it's "game on" or confident of "better luck next time"  Already stayed up for 0z Euro two nights in a row...

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Yeah, but if it had I could then go to sleep peacefully knowing it was over. Now the GFS better be definitive so I can go to sleep either confident it's "game on" or confident of "better luck next time" Already stayed up for 0z Euro two nights in a row...

We are still 2 days away from onset. Nothing is a lock tonight folks. Just keep that in mind as we go through these runs tonight.

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Fwiw on the gfs, of somewhat notable importance, the s/w out off the west coast that was flattening out the ridge in prior runs is trying in earnest to dig more off the Northern Cali coast thru 48 and in turn hold the ridge and even pumping heights out ahead ever so slightly as opposed to just slamming the coast and flattening it out immediately. Small but perhaps important change.

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Was clearly better thru 72 hrs aloft and irt slp position tucked into coast farther west (and even a hair north). Then it does that strange 300 mile center jump to the East in just a few hours so that by 78 hrs we are under ccb but main storm is pulling ene.

Some suggested this is common when a dual low structure forms but it seems suspect to me that the main low sub 992mb jumps this far directly into an area of deep thunderstorm convection which instantly becomes the new main low position.

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