RedSky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ralph is going to get buried with an unpossible amount of snow when the map is shown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Precip cutoff jumped north 50 miles this run. Southern Poconos get 1-2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 You got NAM"D! That could be the funnest run i ever watched play out My head exploded for the 3rd...maybe 4th time this week. Eagles/sports as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 anyone have the clown maps yet... could be an all time great one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MsHeatMiser Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I know it's a different evolution but remember the 2015 March storm? Models consistently showed us and DC getting smoked, then models trended south 2 days before the event only to trend back N and bullseye us. Maybe it's recency bias, but I would favor a N trend over not. That being said, my concern level is high considering I am 25 miles NW of Philly I'm a couple exits west of you on 422, and I think we'll make out just fine. I should have posted 6 hours ago when a poster out in Rofo expressed concern, that I think we'll be closer to the highest totals (not saying we're in the jackpot zone) than not. We've got a little elevation and distance from the coast going for us to get less mixing, and we're not so far north that we need to worry about the cutoff. Otherwise I have no meteo knowledge to back this up, it's just my hunch on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 hard to take it too seriously given that no other guidance shows this kind of extreme solution for our area, I think what you can take out of it is some optimism that there is room for this to come out north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ralph is going to get buried with an unpossible amount of snow when the map is shownI support this post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 i'm no professional met, but I can tell you the NAM smokes our area. im talking snow in feet, not inches. NAM is often too amped though NAM is the best model in this time frame, whatcha talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 anyone have the clown maps yet... could be an all time great one... Hold on tight...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Enjoy until the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Onyl thing to take away with the NAM is @ 24 hours out it was significantly stronger.....which would probably be good for us down the line, so hopefully 00z models follow suite. No one should even look at the NAM beyond 48 hours, how it plays out will change drastically run to run @ that range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 hard to take it too seriously given that no other guidance shows this kind of extreme solution for our area, I think what you can take out of it is some optimism that there is room for this to come out north.Not the best group but jma, sref, nogaps from 18z all show similar. Start of something good? Not sure but we can dream. Still like where we're at regardless of the NAM 0z to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 TTN on the NAM lol, only 3 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'll take half of that and call it a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 nam00Z_1-21-16.pngEnjoy until the GFSShould we expect the gfs to show the same solution verbatim? Of course not. But even if it holds serve from 18z with track/qpf/LE, we are still in a good spot. We were never out of the game, at all.....especially at this hour.Dont stop believin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 From MA subforum: Kinda kicking ass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 TTN on the NAM lol, only 3 feet. One can only dream.LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Someone is going to get the dry slot from hell once the low begins to mature and after the thump. SE NJ probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The NAM brings up a point I made/asked way back in the early pages of this thread.....: Why have we always been capped by 1996? Surely that can one day (I'm not necessarily saying this storm) can be exceeded? SO WHY NOT THIS STORM? Makes you think (I think). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
p626808 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 nam00Z_1-21-16.pngEnjoy until the GFS That 35 inch amount is right over my house..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 We don't want the NAM going more north than that, lol. The QPF is likely overdone, but the north trend was what I want to see in the other models tonight. So this run is hopefully picking up on something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Qpf totals aside verbatim, entire qpf heavy band ticked north yet again. NAM or not, given some of the other recent adjustment, the shift cannot be completely ignored: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 From MA subforum: Kinda kicking ass... It's gets far better than that for us in later panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The NAM brings up a point I made/asked way back in the early pages of this thread.....: Why have we always been capped by 1996? Surely that can one day (I'm not necessarily saying this storm) can be exceeded? SO WHY NOT THIS STORM? Makes you think (I think). I've been around too long and seen the NAM do this too many times--that is why people say "you've been NAM'd". This will not verify. Like I said though maybe it is a sign of a northern movement, which would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 *max number of emoticons allowed by the forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Trying to find something negative to post at this hour per a few peoples' requests but I got nothin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Oh, and there isn't a chance in hell that verifies, but it's still fun to look at. Kinda like the clown euro map that started a firestorm a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 I've been around too long and seen the NAM do this too many times--that is why people say "you've been NAM'd". This will not verify. Like I said though maybe it is a sign of a northern movement, which would be good.Agreed. Verbatim, unlikely. Even cut those totals in half tho and most folks are still extremely happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The NAM went from nothing to well over 1" of QPF out here in State College. Obviously QPF is overdone, but hopefully this north trend is real and the GFS follows suit. I believe the SREF also came in further north, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Oh, and there isn't a chance in hell that verifies, but it's still fun to look at. Kinda like the clown euro map that started a firestorm a few years ago. Like I said in another forum, better then watching it slide off to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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