Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 So 18z nam ticked north, 18z navgem was north, 18z jma very far north, new srefs leaning north....maybe not the best group of models to have on your side right now but perhaps a sign of things to come for 0z suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Tell DT that. Being a newb, I ask: Why is that? Surely running the model 30+ times and taking the mean would provide the best result? Sorry, I have NO clue how any of this works. Can someone please put it in layman's terms? Cheers/ the resolution on each of the ensemble members is less than the OP, which as you get closer to the event becomes more important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Srefs around 2' snow in SEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I kinda dig this map and I think it will jack a bit N...which always seems to happen, The shore will most likely get screwed as usual (rain/mix)....super far N/W kinda gets screwed (too far away)....Philly, local burbs of Philly look pretty good right now. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wow Those are run of the NAM, right? I may be incorrect, but that is what I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wow Those are run of the NAM, right? I may be incorrect, but that is what I thought. Believe so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Believe so. The QPF field makes sense then and the reason why most don't like them this far out. Still nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I know it's a different evolution but remember the 2015 March storm? Models consistently showed us and DC getting smoked, then models trended south 2 days before the event only to trend back N and bullseye us. Maybe it's recency bias, but I would favor a N trend over not. That being said, my concern level is high considering I am 25 miles NW of Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I know it's a different evolution but remember the 2015 March storm? Models consistently showed us and DC getting smoked, then models trended south 2 days before the event only to trend back N and bullseye us. Maybe it's recency bias, but I would favor a N trend over not. That being said, my concern level is high considering I am 25 miles NW of Philly I'm 15 miles NW of Philly...I think we're fine for now. Elevation always helps as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm 15 miles NW of Philly...I think we're fine for now. Elevation always helps as well... fine in terms of what? I wanted to see a foot here and not feeling great about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 fine in terms of what? I wanted to see a foot here and not feeling great about that I think you're in good shape for a foot now. Take the anti-anxiety pills as directed for now though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WebBreaker63 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I kinda dig this map and I think it will jack a bit N...which always seems to happen, The shore will most likely get screwed as usual (rain/mix)....super far N/W kinda gets screwed (too far away)....Philly, local burbs of Philly look pretty good right now. We'll see...We'll see about the shore as we always expect mixing, but always get last licks of snow as storms like this pull away, moisture in place and a North wind. This may not pull away until early Sunday morning for Jersey coast.Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Also DT has the area in the 8-12 DT has been wrong plenty of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Is there any chance of a nice surprise on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 DT has been wrong plenty of times. DT needs to chill, I've never seen such anger! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 We'll see about the shore as we always expect mixing, but always get last licks of snow as storms like this pull away, moisture in place and a North wind. This may not pull away until early Sunday morning for Jersey coast. Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk I always hope for the shore guys! Places inland get screwed but I know shore people get hosed way more. I would be bald by now if I lived down there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Is there any chance of a nice surprise on the Euro? 4 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Is there any chance of a nice surprise on the Euro? One model at a time. Euro was nice at 12Z. Now we wait on NAM, GFS, GGEM and Ukie (if it shows up) before the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 DT needs to chill, I've never seen such anger! lol This is kinda typical over the years...thinking bi-polar at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WebBreaker63 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I always hope for the shore guys! Places inland get screwed but I know shore people get hosed way more. I would be bald by now if I lived down there....I don't rule anything out here, always the most dynamic, its that all or nothing snow chance that keeps me going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 fwiw, Wunderground just downgraded its totals from 12+ to 8-12 in my area. I'm sure that's just algorithm it runs on as it wavers more than a politician! Still don't like seeing that....wonder what the basis is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Although 50F water temps and any east winds worry me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 One model at a time. Euro was nice at 12Z. Now we wait on NAM, GFS, GGEM and Ukie (if it shows up) before the euro Yeah, the Euro usually doesn't "jump off the bridge" per model run...just gives us hints. NAM/GFS can make anyone hit the liquor cabinet at any given moment .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 fwiw, Wunderground just downgraded its totals from 12+ to 8-12 in my area. I'm sure that's just algorithm it runs on as it wavers more than a politician! Still don't like seeing that....wonder what the basis is? GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 DT has been wrong plenty of times. i like his discussions and hes a great contributor to the board but his snowfall forecasts the past few years leave room to be desired for this area and I will leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 fwiw, Wunderground just downgraded its totals from 12+ to 8-12 in my area. I'm sure that's just algorithm it runs on as it wavers more than a politician! Still don't like seeing that....wonder what the basis is? It really means nothing...they are computer generated/wishy-wash at best...even on the day of the event. Take it w/a grain of salt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WebBreaker63 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 In Toms River....it most certainly shouldAnd potentially 30 miles inland as well, we'll see how much cold air comes down vs. ocean air, makes for rain and pretty good snow potential, always enjoy the conflict. So glad I bought my son in law a snow blower for his place in Quakertown, I was afraid I may have jinxed winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 i like his discussions and hes a great contributor to the board but his snowfall forecasts the past few years leave room to be desired for this area and I will leave it at that. I like his hard ass approach. Is he right all the time? No. But who is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nam thru 36 looking pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looking good is good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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