The Iceman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 One off run and people are jumping off ledges in our forum to the north "Trenton south storm" if only some of them would actually jump off a ledge... then I would be for a merger. not concerned at all about that gfs run, qpf the same and no other model is showing a thermal profile like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 One off run and people are jumping off ledges in our forum to the north "Trenton south storm" Thats fine by me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 We need to stay in the game with moisture and then play Russian roulette with temps. I think we will be okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 0z should impress. the best sample so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What time are the next model runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Have to believe there will be a more SW to NE component to the snow maxima. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What time are the next model runs? NAM starts at 9pm GFS 10:30pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That needs to be bumped north about 75 miles. That way I'm off the tight gradient, yet everyone else in the forum still gets heavy snow... ImageUploadedByTapatalk1453323237.628401.jpgHaz --- here is 84... WowSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That needs to be bumped north about 75 miles. That way I'm off the tight gradient, yet everyone else in the forum still gets heavy snow... Steve you won't like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Steve you won't like the GFS I'm not liking any of the models right now. Once they hone in on a south trend lately, they never come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm not liking any of the models right now. Once they hone in on a south trend lately, they never come back. Just like this past Sunday system right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Why the lower snow totals in Philadelphia? There is not mention of mixing in the zones, and there are 2 periods of heavy snow accumulation and one period of light accumulation. Why so much less than BWI? Also WPC has Philly at 1.5+qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Just like this past Sunday system right? Not when it's a HECS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Why the lower snow totals in Philadelphia? There is not mention of mixing in the zones, and there are 2 periods of heavy snow accumulation and one period of light accumulation. Why so much less than BWI? Also WPC has Philly at 1.5+qpf Warm ocean air causing mixing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Warm ocean air causing mixing... Yes but no mention of any mix in Philly zone. I noticed that there has often been a gap of lower snow/qpf near and around Philly. In another forum I read (Ginxy I think) that when the low is captured it pulls back the moisture while the 850 low accelerates to the northeast. There is still time for this to shift although the bullseye has never left DC BWI area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Anyone have 12z euro ensembles? Rumor Is they are way NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GEFS were not good. It's OK it has to have that period where it tries to lose the storm around this time all is well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Anyone have 12z euro ensembles? Rumor Is they are way NW The mean was good for NYC. The para was ugly but at least it was the old 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ensembles blow as a forecasting tool this close to a storm just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ensembles blow as a forecasting tool this close to a storm just sayin Tell DT that. Being a newb, I ask: Why is that? Surely running the model 30+ times and taking the mean would provide the best result? Sorry, I have NO clue how any of this works. Can someone please put it in layman's terms? Cheers/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Saw on TWC that the NWS is adding balloon launches from sites in the east, south and midwest. Said they are doing launches every 6 hours instead of 12. Didn't say when it started or for how long it will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Tell DT that. Being a newb, I ask: Why is that? Surely running the model 30+ times and taking the mean would provide the best result? Sorry, I have NO clue how any of this works. Can someone please put it in layman's terms? Cheers/ From forky in the NYC forum.... ensemble means are useless in an all or nothing situation like this. members with 0 bring down the mean very quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 TWC weather underground program has very good discussion regarding mesoscale banding potential for our area. Might want to see if it's on demand, definitely worth a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Fwiw, the usually very progressive navgem is farther North and briefly captures the slp on the 18z run. Heaviest band of qpf over SEPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GEFS were not good. It's OK it has to have that period where it tries to lose the storm around this time all is well. To be fair most of the members (and the OP) do not lose the storm, there are a few whiffs in there which bring down the numbers. For PHL the ensemble mean is still ok, the farther N and W you go, it starts to diminish. This really does remind me a bit of 2/5/10, although i still think this storm ends up a little north of that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Why the lower snow totals in Philadelphia? There is not mention of mixing in the zones, and there are 2 periods of heavy snow accumulation and one period of light accumulation. Why so much less than BWI? Also WPC has Philly at 1.5+qpf Probably a combination of location and the Jeefus maybe overdoing the sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Probably a combination of location and the Jeefus maybe overdoing the sleet. Also DT has the area in the 8-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Also DT has the area in the 8-12 reasonable forecast given current guidance, i'd lean more towards the 12-16 range, but exact amounts are always hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So going into the forthcoming runs, what are we expecting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Latest 21z srefs clearly leaning north thru Saturday morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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