zenmsav6810 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Tempering myself with the Euro.... Lest we forget what happened a year ago this month regarding the Euro. E.g., - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45530-dissecting-the-bust/ The bust last year was a little different situation the storm was much more complicated and had three different lows involved. Also if I remember the NAM was the first to show the snow signal. Agreed caution is needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 From today's HWO: A WINTER STORM WITH ASSOCIATED SNOW AND STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 as i have been saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 this is VERY different from the GFS and to a lessor degree the GEFS 500 mb its a fabulous looking 500 mb map / hecs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 While reading the Mid Atlantic forum, Atlantic water temps have been brought up. They are still warm, from what I have been reading it will fuel the storm, but won't also have the potential bring in warm air? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47621-january-medlong-range-discussion-part-3/page-36#entry3867383 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just had a weenie gasm but looks as this forum got a spark of life! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birdbean Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 as i have been saying If this storm is anything close to the 83 storm, you young folks are in for a real show. Heaviest sustained snowfall I have ever witnessed, 2 to 3 inch an hour snows for probably about 15 hours. Storm also had thundersnow with total snowfall in the Lancaster Co area of right around 30" from what I measured. My favorite snowstorm of all time based on sheer snowfall intensity and as in true El Niño fashion it rained 3 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Allentown, via a gravity wave, saw 5 inch/hour rates for two consecutive hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Oh geez...look at that H5 map! With even more energy about to dive into the base of the trof thru Illinois, Kentucky, and Tenn. Synoptically, this is a classic depiction or damn near about as close as you can get: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 18Z GFS is a major hit, all snow for PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 18Z GFS is a major hit, all snow for PHL. Simply amazing and very dynamic setup. Ralph, what is truly amazing is this much model support this far out! This doesn't occur all that often. Beginning to feel pretty good about this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 18z GFS is a solid 10-16" for the entire region, a really nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 12-13 inches on the GFS here. 13-23 on TWC, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Small south jog this OP run, let's NOT do that any more. Most important it didn't drop the storm like it's famous for that happens some time in the near future hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Well looks like my more wet than white scenario isn't looking good right now and I hope that continues. Still a long road to travel and I remain cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FUCK JOE BIDEN Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 let me know when we are 48 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Well looks like my more wet than white scenario isn't looking good right now and I hope that continues. Still a long road to travel and I remain cautious. Your initial call for the primary to head towards the Lakes had me thinking about you when the GGEM and GFS were taking the primary toawrd Pitt past few days. Nothing is etched in stone yet still. I will start believing the model hype and really get my heart set on an event come this time Tuesday night if things still look decent. Until then, it's all rainbows and unicorns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 let me know when we are 48 hours out You'll be looking at every model run just like the rest of us. Incurable disease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Small south jog this OP run, let's NOT do that any more. Most important it didn't drop the storm like it's famous for that happens some time in the near future hehe No doubt it's going to do a lot of jogging in the next couple days, only to jog slightly back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 You'll be looking at every model run just like the rest of us. Incurable disease. lol...so true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 No doubt it's going to do a lot of jogging in the next couple days, only to jog slightly back. Wouldn't be so sure about that. El Nino still rules the show this winter. It can only jog so far South before we possibly lose it to suppression completely. Not sure this is a pattern where we can bank on the old North trend, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 NAVGEM just took a big shift South at 18z. Grazes us...barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Possibly precip shield shifted south, but the low a bit north...from last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Toss... Out of step with most other models. Likely not a great model anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Nah. Just being a troll. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 https://www.wxrisk.com/the-wxrisk-com-snowstorm-page/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Trust me a run is coming real soon where many.....maybe not Ralph will say it will be shunted to the south. I will be very disappointed if models do not show a storm missing the Northern Mid-Atlantic to the south over the next few days. Now some of you that believe models are an actual forecast will be upset....but I am hoping for a suppressed run of the GFS over the next couple days....if you like snow you want the models to show it missing to the south. That said many on here will call....winter over and/or next storm as this one will miss us to the south.....interesting times ahead this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Self-proclaimed newb here who only follows severe weather..... Through my experience DT is very conservative, and always see patterns ahead of everyone else - he normally isn't this bullish unless he is fairly confident. I'm always skeptical about DT, especially when he consistently posts "negative" forecasts that run contrary to the models. But he proves me wrong every time, and this is why I'm a newb. I'll just mainly follow this in silence, so don't worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ralph, what is truly amazing is this much model support this far out! This doesn't occur all that often. Beginning to feel pretty good about this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 0Z Monday op GFS thru 96 hrs has closed 500 Low over ne TX- Not over MISSOURI or OH like 12z GFS -- HIUGE shift south very good news for those wanting the last several european model runs / EPS to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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