LVblizzard Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That cutoff worries me. I'm currently in East Stroudsburg and I'm 20 miles away from either an epic bust or an epic blizzard on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Beauty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Any chance you back off some? I went off someone's post who doesnt know synoptic meteo and said it went due east. I admitted my error and moved on, there was no meltdown. Cool off man. It did tick east prior to 72 hours but then went whacky and stopped movement with a late capture. Not going to be correct outcome IMO, but interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Any chance you back off some? I went off someone's post who doesnt know synoptic meteo and said it went due east. I admitted my error and moved on, there was no meltdown. Cool off you really don't see the problem here? never mind, keep on, i look forward to the next canceling, i said my piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Fwiw I am going 12-24" for my area (lower central bucks county). Meso banding and capture variability will be the difference between verifying low end vs high end of that range. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 And to note it's still snowing past 84. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It did tick east prior to 72 hours but then went whacky and stopped movement with a late capture. Not going to be correct outcome IMO, but interesting that kind of thing can happen with a capture....in any event, i agree, not likely to verify, and we have seen the overly juiced up NAM many times before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 It did tick east prior to 72 hours but then went whacky and stopped movement with a late capture. Not going to be correct outcome IMO, but interestingMy apologies didnt realize it was u that posted that bud. U know youre stuff, youre good. Honest oversight if u didnt see late panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 mm Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LehighValleyDad Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That cutoff worries me. I'm currently in East Stroudsburg and I'm 20 miles away from either an epic bust or an epic blizzard on this run. I totally agree. I live 8 miles north of ABE, and I despise the gradient being this close. Would love to have some insurance room. Maybe we can get a 25 to 50 mile jog north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 My apologies didnt realize it was u that posted that bud. U know youre stuff, youre good. Honest oversight if u didnt see late panels. No worries. I think we all need to calm down and post as a group like old times. The Philly forum used to be money in these situations, lets try and keep it that way. Anyway, I like what the precip maps are showing as far as aerial extent, just not sure I like how they get there with this run. GFS should be telling..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 that kind of thing can happen with a capture....in any event, i agree, not likely to verify, and we have seen the overly juiced up NAM many times before.NAM has some support from the gfs tho not as high with qpf. Probably a NAMing as some pointed out. We'll know in about 60 hrs :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gakmsg Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That cutoff worries me. I'm currently in East Stroudsburg and I'm 20 miles away from either an epic bust or an epic blizzard on this run. wow - a forecast of 0.4 - 19 inches .... 48 hours of radar hallucinations in your future :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 1996 called and said, "Here, have a biblical blizzard!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cc17926 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Mt Holly's map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Those NAM totals are based on 10:1 too. I don't think 15:1 will happen due to temps and wind but 12:1 is certainly not out of the question if we sit under the CCB as depicted on the NAM. I don't think today's model runs could of been any better for the majority of the area. Hopefully we see a little bit more northern expansion in the precip so our friends in the northwest can get in on the fun as well. My first call is 16-24"+ for SE PA and Central/southern jersey, 8-12" for LHV with a sharp cutoff the more NW you go. And I think I may have to increase it as time moves forward. Everyone should be in a great mood here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 18z GFS: Things are much more juicier at 30 hours compared to 12z. (36 hr) Could be nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I can't be happier on how things are trending. Thanks everyone for staying up and gathering details! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yikes. GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Mt Holly's mapI have this link http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter# but what link yields that page? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Mixing keeping totals down on the GFS for PHL area, qpf has not been reduced. Kind of similar to the Euro last night. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So NBC10 hacked this 18z GFS run eh, throw it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yes full run. And they have been reduced to the north Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yikes. GFS A lot of mixing in PHL and immediate area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So NBC10 hacked this 18z GFS run eh, throw it out i dont think this run is so bad, i'd rather see the qpf stay steady or increase, we'll see if the wind changes us over for a bit, but I like having the moisture to work with. Mixing is probably going to be tough to pinpoint before Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GFS does look terrible - but we're not terribly far off - the darker magenta knocking on the door to our West. Perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 A lot of mixing in PHL and immediate areaThe great news is that the QPF/LE is still consistent....Temp profiles won't be certain until closer to arrival/during event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 One off run and people are jumping off ledges in our forum to the north "Trenton south storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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